NFL Week 17

YTD ATS: 51-39...........ML Dogs: 14-22 (+1.27)


Denver +3.5

Has there ever been a road fav this big that won't give a shit? The Chargers are done, the Broncos have found a second life....sign me up.

I'm not sure why anybody would touch the Chargers this week. These losers didn't give a crap when the games actually counted and now that they are officially done after an embarrassing loss in Cincy I expect them to bring their #1 defense and #2 offense into Denver and lay down like the dogs that they are. Why would they give a flying fuck about this game? Their bags are packed and they are ready to go on a vacation. Denver on the other hand has found a second life with Tebow and playing football is probably a fun thought for these guys right now. I've said this many times but I am a huge believer in the fact that games are won during the week with how you prepare and how you practice. The Broncos camp will probably be loose, upbeat, and fun this week while the Chargers camp will probably be depressing, reflective, apathetic, and will seem like an eternity. I'll bet that those factors will show up on Sunday. Nice revenge spot here too after San Diego spanked the Broncos on Monday Night Football earlier this year.


Arizona +7 (-120)

Same story here. Why are the Niners going to give a crap? They are done. A season full of hope and promise coming into the year has turned into a full scale embarrassment. These guys probably just can't wait for the agony to end. I feel sorry for the interim coach that has to come in this week and try to assemble a game plan with players who won't care. Just like the Chargers I believe their bags are packed and they are ready to put this season from hell firmly behind them.

Arizona, just like Denver, has caught a second wind with a rookie QB coming in. These guys played really inspired against Dallas and I look for that to carry over to this game especially with the motivation of knowing the Niners came into their house earlier this year and embarrassed them on MNF in the game where Derek Anderson lost it afterwards. The Broncos camp will probably be loose, upbeat, and fun this week while the Chargers camp will probably be depressing, reflective, apathetic, and will seem like an eternity. I just wrote that in the Denver writeup. Fill in Arizona and San Fran and its the same story.

I'll be grabbing both of these ML's once they come out as well.

If anyone is wondering, I had Minnesota +14.5 on SNF but now that this game has been moving to Tuesday I have absolutely no interest in the Vikings (or Eagles for that matter).

I can't believe it is already Week 17. Let's finish in style.

Like Denver as well, Tim Tebow is playing for his job in next game and 2011 and San Diego has nothing to play for except golf in off season.

First id just like to say these early look ahead threads have been consistently the best conversation thoughout the NFL season, -Mac always a pleasure....

onto business...

Den +3.5, could not agree anymore

, one difference i see in the opposing teams- chargers and 49ers....the chargers are like you said, depressed, apathetic, couldn't give a shit.  However, this 49ers team has some real spirited players, i can see them being pissed and taking out their anger on this hapless cardinals squad.  Vernon davis, crab tree, ted ginn, some big time play makers - also spikes and every other angry linebacker who are going to be fucking pissed after a season of serious underproduction.

i think browns at home getting 6 can keep it close with the Steelers, especially if polamalu is out again.  holmgren and the org. knows a season ending victory over division rival steelers would be tremendous,  Mangini also looking to keep his job,

as i've been saying last 3 weeks, THIS is the time to pound the seahawks...at home, final game of the season, NFC WEST CHAMP on the line....ill take petey carroll over the rookie qb bradford on the road toughest places to play,   this game is juicy 

GL

 

Denver ML +160

Arizona ML +244

Andy, This may matter it may not. But teams usually play well the next week if there coach get fired..

Just pointing that out.

If Mike Sing was still coaching i would be all over betting Zona but now that he is gone, the players might try really hard to show him up that they can win w/o him.

agree with Browns play -- basically they're super bowl

they knocked off the steelers late last yr on a thursday night and knocked Ben out the year before -- look for them to be very inspired

Oh shit, Singletary got canned?  I crashed early last night, and shovelled snow most of today.  Was anything said of the Smith/Singletary fight?  It looked like Smith was saying over and over I'M NOT PERFECT as Singletary broke his balls. 

Mac, great call on the Rams.  That game should have not even been nearly as close as it was. 

 

Niners could come pissed but I think it's more likely they pack it up. These losers are still vastly overrated by the oddsmakers. It is mind boggling that this team that will finish 6-10 or 5-11 will close as the favorite in 11 of their 16 games.

Lean your way on the Browns and Seahawks as well but there is lots of digging to do this week on those games.

My numbers say they usually stink it up.

Minnesota and Dallas played well after they changed coaches but before that teams that changed coaches on a non-bye week went 2-11 ATS in the following game. Then a few weeks ago the Broncos fired McDaniels on a non-bye week and went into Arizona as 4 point favs and were blown out by 30 points.

Did you see what the Rams did late in the 4th after they ran the kickoff back to about the 15? They ran it three straight times for basically no gain. Horrendous play calling. They hadn't run a lick all game, Bradford was in a groove and zipping it all over the field so they fucking run it three straight times? That was a very troubling sign as they got real scared there.

They also did not capitalize on many golden opportunities earlier in the game when the Niners kept shooting themselves in the foot. This team is very timid and has zero killer instinct. The Rams are a nice story but they have played scared in situations like this all season where they should have smelled blood and closed the deal. I'm all for underappreciated home dogs but if the aggressive, play-for-the-win Saints go to St. Louis to play the box cat, pants-shitting Rams in the 1st round I think they will throttle them. Scared teams never win in the playoffs. Never.

Right, just initial leans- more research is def needed before locking those in.

Houston +2.5 & ML +115

Somehow I doubt this hits 3. Good spot for the Texans to get a win to close out a bad year. Lots of talk about Texan fans holding a rally calling for Kubiak's firing. Pretty embarrassing stuff right there. I've read a lot about the Texans this year as I've been involved in lots of their games and I haven't really seen an overwhelming amount of evidence to suggest that the players hate Kubiak. Their problem has been poor defensive execution and quite frankly a group on defense that simply isn't good enough. Those tough losses added up late in the year and they did mail a couple in but here in their finale at home against a division rival I kind of get the feeling they may rally around Kubiak and stick up for him. He'll probably be fired but at least they can send him out with a little dignity left.

Jacksonville sucks. Their defense is just as bad if not worse than Houston's. I wouldn't trust these guys as a road fav over the Akron Zips.

Love all 3 picks Andy...I hit the first 2 early..will probably make a play on Houston as well.

What do you think of a Ravens/Colts 7pt tease?
Ravens -2.5/Colts -2

I still have to look into it....I am worried about the resurgence of the Bengals though...they looked great last week and their D is playing better. Getting back to the run game like last year.
It's Tenesee's superbowl too but I just don't see the Colts letting this one go at home. Their game is scheduled at the same time as Ten so they will play to win.

Any thoughts or are you leaning the other way?

same time as Jax*

The Ravens game means nothing to them if the Steelers gut the Browns,starts the same time,Ravens starters will play as long as that game is competitive,if not subs will take over....

Great stuff mac. Always enjoy reading your threads. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the Rams vs Hawks this week.

Line is  Rams - 3 right now.. I feel like we have two teams here headed in opposite directions.And one team has a pretty good QB and the other doesnt. I like the Rams here to play with a ton of confidence after the niner win and a shot to win the division.  This Seahawk team has not showed any signs of life or even a pulse latley.

Check out the Hawks last 3 games.It's simply not fair that this team even has a shot to make the playoffs this weekend.

L 40-21 at San Fran

L 34-18 vs Atlanta

L 38-15 at Tampa

Also like the Rams coaching staff over the Hawks. Caroll is an idiot and ex giant defensive coach Spags knows what it takes to get i t done.. Rams will pount the ball with Jackson and should make a play or two on special teams. Bradford can control the game.. I cant see the Hawks being dangerous in this game.

Thoughts ?

Pissy McShit.



Note to self: Do not allow postponements to change your opinion of NFL games in the future.

I played under 42 and an hour later I could have gotten 44  still might work, though.

I love the phony "We're not ready to quit" soundbites I'm hearing from the Jags so far this week. These guys already have their suitcases packed for vacation. I have a feeling Wayne Weaver is negotiating Jack Del Rio's contract buy-out as we speak. I might have a very large play on Houston as well.

 

Good hit on that total. Agree on the Jags as well. They were very fortunate to get to overtime last week as Chris "clown" Cooley dropped at least 5 passes where no one was around him which would have gained huge chunks including one sure touchdown. The Jags quit last week and IMO won't give a shit about Houston.

This Eagles loss also puts a dent in my hopes of riding the Packers to the Super Bowl too. Now we are probably going to see a big spread on Green Bay against the Bears with the Bears locking up the #2 seed. 

Not only did I not have a cent on a game I nailed last week but I also get screwed with potential future line. This stinks.

gl this week

Andy...i thought you played GB over NYG?

or are we talking about GB/NE?