NFL Week 16

Quote Originally Posted by eastbounddown:

Like Cleveland this week unloaded my balance on them! Wish me luck i am going to need it!!!!!Either way best of luck to everyone this weekend and have a merry chritmas and a healthy new year!

GL man!  Wouldn't surprise me if you got a win!  All depends on which Bmore shows up. 

Same here bro.  Many thanks to Mac and Glyde for getting this up and running and to all who contribute every week!

Bator 

Trends are great and all but you also have to factor the circumstances around the game and of both teams..

The Chargers are playing great and are battling for a spot in the playoffs. Their best wideout is out and Ocho Stupido is hurt and will have very limited action. The Chargers are tough vs the run.. The Bengals have a lame duck coach and have nothing to play for on Sunday. You have teams headed in opposite directions here. Vjax is back and has been playing great. Chargers by 10+. Good luck on your plays. I just cant figure how you can back Carson Palmer in this spot..

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Nice hit boys on the front end of those teasers you got going there.


Card:

Washington +7 & ML +280

St. Louis -2

Minnesota +14.5

Cincinnati +8 (-115) - Liked this one less and less through the week but not enough not to fire.

Seattle +6 & ML +230

Green Bay -3


Few points: The Rams propensity for choking and blowing leads this year is a concern but I feel the pathetic effort last week, a chance to grab the bull by the horns in the division, and this being the early national game on FOX where the Rams get to prove themselves to the majority of the nation who will be seeing them for the first time, all converge and allow the Rams to seize the moment and "arrive".

Seattle is not good but they have played uber shit the last two weeks. I expect a very solid effort out of them. Tampa Bay blew a massive opportunity last week with both teams they were chasing in the wildcard race losing. It should have been an opportunity to get right into the thick of the race but instead they lost at home to the Lions. This is analogous to situations when teams drop a sure interception or TD in a game, it seems like those mistakes always come back to burn them. You absolutely need to make the most of your opportunities. Tampa Bay didn't do that last week and now they will get burned.

Remy makes some real solid points about the Giants and if this was anyone other than Green Bay I may be on the Giants as well. Maybe last week is getting to me and I know the Patriots didn't play their best but boy that was impressive what the Packers did against New England. This team has a hell of a lot of character. They have about 15 guys on IR and 10 who have started and week after week they plug in guys who we've never heard of who contribute They are quietly becoming the Patriots of the NFC in that regard.

I know the parallels to the 06-07 Giants are easy to make but I think much like that Giants team the Packers got a massive shot of confidence from last weeks game and it may act as a springboard to a big run in the postseason kind of like those 06-07 Giants had. I've been digging around this week looking at stats/trends/experience etc, etc of Super Bowl Champions from the past 25 years or so and almost all of those teams fit certain criteria (I'll post a thread before the playoffs). Right now the Packers are the only NFC team that fits all the criteria so I think if they get into the playoffs they can be dangerous. To get in they are going to have to win the next two games. Once they do that they will be a wildcard and will have to win 3 straight road games to reach the Super Bowl. My plan of attack here is long term: this week bet GB -3+100 and then roll that over plus the initial amount wagered on the Packers the next 4 games on the ML until the Super Bowl (if they get there obviously). Worst case scenario and most likely is I lose a unit, best case is I pick up 35-40. Worth a stab IMO.

One other thing regarding the game this week, I talked myself out of the Giants last week because of Eli's turnover woes. While he did play well he also committed another turnover. That is now just 3 times in 14 games he has played turnover free and the Giants have coughed it up a league high 35 times. If the Giants turn it over here they are going to have to at least turn Green Bay back over once (which is hard is do as they don't cough it up much) or they are going down as the Packers are 6-0 SU & ATS this year when winning the turnover battle and are 22-4 ATS since Aaron Rodgers became the starter when they have won the turnover battle. This is not a spot turnover machine Eli wants to cough it.


GL this week and Merry Christmas to all the degenerates out there.

If I can find time to sneak on a computer before the games on Sunday I will try to get down on Denver and maybe Chicago.

Good stuff and good card.

Andy, I tend to agree with Remy on that Pack-Giant game.  I'm not sure if I am gonna hit it, but definitely leaning to the G-Men.  Now GB was a team that I thought overrated coming into the season(we talked about this in August).  I thought the defense was particularly weak against a pass heavy team(see zona playoff game last year) and pass heavy is exactly what MOST teams in the NFL have been turning into.  I thought the offensive line concerns weren't really addressed.  I thought some of their key players were a year older and maybe a step slower.  Then the season starts and one player after another are dropping like flies, and yet they are still winning. 

At this point, I am very impressed in this team.  The defense that I thought that was overrated has about 68 guys on I-R and they are playing off the wall football.  Rodgers has been concussed a couple of times and they are still competitive without him.  I would LOOOOOVE to bet them this week against ANY other team, but I just can't do it against the Giants.  Not that team, not this week.  Not after that loss, not with that pass rush, and a Rodgers whos career could be affected if another concussion occurs.

Andy, I am interested in hearing your take on the Pack and how they fit all the parameters of your playoff run you are scheming.  I also wish GB could somehow weasel into the playoffs without the Giants being booted.  With the money I bet on these games, a long time ago I pushed away my "fan's" perspective on things.  Still, I think both GB and the Giants are dangerous squads, and it is a shame that both of them can't make the playoffs and show me what they can do.

Decided to add a couple plays.  One is Dallas -7.  I'm not usually someone to bet like this, but I figure with the front end of that teaser hitting and needing Dallas just to win, I went ahead and added a unit -7.  Hey, if Zona somehow can win that game with that rook QB, God Bless, I get the double whammy.  I don't see it though.  Maybe Dallas wins by 3 and I shake my head that the extra bet cost me a split, but maybe Dallas routs and the double hit builds me some momentum into the playoffs. Again, not exactly a wager/mentality I ever use, but whatever.

Miami -3.  With the exception of that Bear debacle, I like how good Miami has been playing of late.  Sure they weren't exactly great last week, but circumstances(4 missed FG and a killer turnover) beat them more than their actual play.  They went away from the run game last week, and after losing to Buffalo they took some heat for only rushing like 15 times.  Tomorrow I feel they pound the run in response to that criticism, control the clock, and their defense keeps the Lions in check.

Giants +3.  Talked about it above.  I would feel more confident if they were playing ANYONE but the Pack who have really gained my respect the last month, but if anything good could possibly come from last week's embarrassing collapse, it is that this team will never again take their foot off the gas pedal for the rest of 2010.  I fear for anyone who steps out on the field against them the rest of this year.  It truly is a shame that one of these teams won't be able to play football in January.  I think they are both better than Atlanta, Philly, the West team, and most of the AFC playoff squads.

Final card:

Pitt -8.5/Dallas - .5
Dallas -7
Cincy +7.5
Miami -3
Giants +3
SF ML +120
Washington +7
Toledo -1.5(college bowl game)

Andy, JA, Remy, and all the regulars, merry xmas!  Enjoy the holiday, get drunk, get laid, get paid!

Quote Originally Posted by Michfan15:

this is the  shit i love reading... keep it up mac. 

I second this.  Great stuff!

Cincinnati +8 (-115) - Liked this one less and less through the week but not enough not to fire.

Thinking the same thing, bro.  I might wash this bet.  They are just too banged up.

Gonna be a long day for Eli

Blizard conditions in the NE should make for some interesting games.  I see they CXLed the Eagles/Vikings game already.

Here is my final card for the week.  Good luck to all and hope Santa brings us the  we all have been chasing.

3TM 10PTFootballTeaser
[102] PIT STEELERS -4½-110 (B+10)
[103] DAL COWBOYS +3-105 (B+10)
[115] NE PATRIOTS o34-110 (B+10)

3TM 10PTFootballTeaser
[111] SF 49’ERS +12½-110 (B+10)
[124] OAK RAIDERS +11-110 (B+10)
[129] SD CHARGERS +1+110 (B+10)

STRAIGHT BET
[127] NY GIANTS +3-115

STRAIGHT BET
[127] NY GIANTS +135

STRAIGHT BET
[132] ATL FALCONS -2½-110

Man what a disgrace the Giants are.  SD no better.  The Bengals?  Really?  Amazing.

Down 2.5 units of the week. 

Remy I agree.  Giants are bums and so are the Chargers.  I almost got on the Gbums after Chicago won, but something kept me away.  Glad I did.  Good capping on the Bengals Mac.  I wish I had taken what seemed like obvious covers (Baltimore, New England, Tampa Bay) but such is life.  Still not a bad week overall.  Great play on FIU Glyde.  I know that one felt damn good!

Thoughts on this evening?  I'm on the over, but no plays ATS.  My lean is NO, but I think I'm going to stick to the total.  Mac, are you still backing the Vikes for Tuesday's game?  Good work this week everyone and Merry Xmas!