NFL Week 16

listen 13 or 14.5 aint going to happen steelrs win thi huge cause panther already had locked up top draft picks so 1 more win wasnt going to hurt them

was crazy they were favored but i guess the books knew cards rookie 1st road game wasnt going to respond

Wow, just wrote a mini novel on the SF game and lost it.  Take 2(shortened version)......

Just locked up SF ML +120.

I may be nuts(or just not have a good gauge on the NFL this year), but I still believe the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFC West, and would represent their division best in the 2010 playoffs.  I don't know the shenanigans involved for them to weasel into a playoff spot(and a home game), but I do know that this game right here is the first and most important game to getting there.  Coach Singletary is a complete handjob of a coach, but he does do one thing well which is motivate his players, and I truly do believe he has this team frothing at the mouth for this one.  This fits perfectly into why I like this team to begin with which the play in the trenches.  Looking back over St Louis' last few games, they haven't stopped anyone running the ball.  KC, New Orleans, Arizona, Denver, Atlanta, all ran all over them.  On the other side, SF has been semi respectable stopping the run.  They haven't been stuffing it like the Steelers, but teams have had a lot of attempts to get to or around the century mark.  Alex Smith has been back a couple of weeks and while he isn't Joe Montana, he is fairly efficient moving the offense and I think his arm will set up a lot of 2nd and 3s and 2nd and 4s which SF will bludegon the Rams on the ground and pick up lots of 1st downs.

I also locked up the Bengals +7.5.  I don't think the line will get any better and I feel confident with them catching over a TD.  As Mac said(and some Bengals players), the focus of the offense went to the run game after TO went down and just like 2009 when they were one of the better teams in the league, they looked mighty good last week against the Browns. I expect a cold, grimy game with the warm weather Chargers possibly walking into a buzzsaw.  Honestly, I hope SD finds a way to win it late because I love to see the noise they can make in the playoffs.

Also played a "degenerate" teaser for some early week action.  Pitt -8.5 and Dallas -.5.  DD is just too fucking much to lay unless it is the most perfect of spots, and I think the dreaded backdoor has a lot less of a chance to occur on 8 than 14+.  Pitt quietly has been going through some offensive woes, and what better place to oil up the machine than a Week 16 pre-postseason tune up against a team with an offense so bad it should give Pittsburgh plenty of opportunities to work with short fields.  Although I wished the Dallas team plane to crash and instantly kill the entire organization after blowing that 27-7 lead to Washington last week, I am going back to them.  They noticeably let their foot off the gas pedal last week, and when they build the early lead this week, I don't see it happening again. 

I'm eyeing down a couple more games and will be back later in the week.......really could use a break.  Been getting hammered from all angles(S Miss last night is another example of losing a game I thought I capped well), and just need a little light at the end of the tunnel before rolling into the playoffs.  I don't mean to sound like a broken record, but it is staggering what is going on.  It's at the point where I feel a bit embarrassed even posting my plays.  I've been dropping picks on here for over 5 years and always at a really solid % from NFL to bowl games to occasional NBA or MLB plays.  Clogging up a nice thread and going 50% on the season isn't helping anyone. 

I wouldn't read to much into this stat. Teams run more often after they get leads and pass more often when they fall behind.

Against Browns last week Bengals led 10-7 at half and 16-7 after 3 quarters therefore they ran more often "because" of their lead.

You can find this excellent info in FO almanac.......................

Bengals in 2009......... ran the ball 47% of plays

in the 1st half ran the ball 45% of plays

in the 2cd half when behind ran the ball "only" 33% of plays

in the 2cd half when ahead ran the ball "a whopping" 68% of plays

this pattern fits every single team in the league.

Andy and Glyde,

Do you like Washington +7 this week? Looks like the easiest play on the board. Jax always sucks after playing Indy (1-7 ATS last 8). Washington has actually been playing good football lately only losing to Dallas by 3 and Tampa by 1. Grossman also looked decent last week.

Wow, just wrote a mini novel on the SF game and lost it.  Take 2(shortened version)......

Just locked up SF ML +120.

I may be nuts(or just not have a good gauge on the NFL this year), but I still believe the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFC West, and would represent their division best in the 2010 playoffs.  I don't know the shenanigans involved for them to weasel into a playoff spot(and a home game), but I do know that this game right here is the first and most important game to getting there.  Coach Singletary is a complete handjob of a coach, but he does do one thing well which is motivate his players, and I truly do believe he has this team frothing at the mouth for this one.  This fits perfectly into why I like this team to begin with which the play in the trenches.  Looking back over St Louis' last few games, they haven't stopped anyone running the ball.  KC, New Orleans, Arizona, Denver, Atlanta, all ran all over them.  On the other side, SF has been semi respectable stopping the run.  They haven't been stuffing it like the Steelers, but teams have had a lot of attempts to get to or around the century mark.  Alex Smith has been back a couple of weeks and while he isn't Joe Montana, he is fairly efficient moving the offense and I think his arm will set up a lot of 2nd and 3s and 2nd and 4s which SF will bludegon the Rams on the ground and pick up lots of 1st downs.

I also locked up the Bengals +7.5.  I don't think the line will get any better and I feel confident with them catching over a TD.  As Mac said(and some Bengals players), the focus of the offense went to the run game after TO went down and just like 2009 when they were one of the better teams in the league, they looked mighty good last week against the Browns. I expect a cold, grimy game with the warm weather Chargers possibly walking into a buzzsaw.  Honestly, I hope SD finds a way to win it late because I love to see the noise they can make in the playoffs.

Also played a "degenerate" teaser for some early week action.  Pitt -8.5 and Dallas -.5.  DD is just too fucking much to lay unless it is the most perfect of spots, and I think the dreaded backdoor has a lot less of a chance to occur on 8 than 14+.  Pitt quietly has been going through some offensive woes, and what better place to oil up the machine than a Week 16 pre-postseason tune up against a team with an offense so bad it should give Pittsburgh plenty of opportunities to work with short fields.  Although I wished the Dallas team plane to crash and instantly kill the entire organization after blowing that 27-7 lead to Washington last week, I am going back to them.  They noticeably let their foot off the gas pedal last week, and when they build the early lead this week, I don't see it happening again. 

I'm eyeing down a couple more games and will be back later in the week.......really could use a break.  Been getting hammered from all angles(S Miss last night is another example of losing a game I thought I capped well), and just need a little light at the end of the tunnel before rolling into the playoffs.  I don't mean to sound like a broken record, but it is staggering what is going on.  It's at the point where I feel a bit embarrassed even posting my plays.  I've been dropping picks on here for over 5 years and always at a really solid % from NFL to bowl games to occasional NBA or MLB plays.  Clogging up a nice thread and going 50% on the season isn't helping anyone. 

Going to stick with my 3 game teasers which I had some sucess with so far and my straight bets record is just awful.

3TM 10PTFootballTeaser
[102] PIT STEELERS -4½-110 (B+10)
[103] DAL COWBOYS +3-105 (B+10)
[115] NE PATRIOTS o34-110 (B+10)

Something inside me is telling me to stay away from this Steelers game but the degenerate in me needs the action on TNF.  At first glance I was going to take the Panthers +24.5 but then I looked back at their past games and realized that when the Panthers lose, they lose in horrible, embarrassing fashion.  Still the Steelers are no where near as good as they and the NFL pretend they are.  Their offense is stale and they struggle to post points and the defense can be gashed (although I doubt the Panthers defense will gash them).  Hopefully the Steelers rebound from that heartbreaking loss to the Jets and use this national televised game as a statement game to the league and just go out and bury them.

Can't see the Cowboys losing on national TV on XMas to the Cardinals.  

Love this over under at 34.  NE will probably score that themselves and I can see the Bills putting some points up on NE defense again as well. 

I also locked up the Falcons again -2.5.  Going to ride Matty Ice all the way this season. 

Haven't we learned anything from the Bungholes yet ? The statistical disparities between these two teams is like comparing an Anchor Steam to a Bud Light. Not just obvious things, but little things like YPP per down, 3rd and <2 conversion %, # of plays of >10 yds., % of neg. ydg. plays, blah, blah, blah.

There's certainly more than a few dogs to chase this weekend, but these cynical, undercoached, overrated quitters aren't one of them.

Wow, just wrote a mini novel on the SF game and lost it.  Take 2(shortened version)......

Just locked up SF ML +120.

I may be nuts(or just not have a good gauge on the NFL this year), but I still believe the San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFC West, and would represent their division best in the 2010 playoffs.  I don't know the shenanigans involved for them to weasel into a playoff spot(and a home game), but I do know that this game right here is the first and most important game to getting there.  Coach Singletary is a complete handjob of a coach, but he does do one thing well which is motivate his players, and I truly do believe he has this team frothing at the mouth for this one.  This fits perfectly into why I like this team to begin with which the play in the trenches.  Looking back over St Louis' last few games, they haven't stopped anyone running the ball.  KC, New Orleans, Arizona, Denver, Atlanta, all ran all over them.  On the other side, SF has been semi respectable stopping the run.  They haven't been stuffing it like the Steelers, but teams have had a lot of attempts to get to or around the century mark.  Alex Smith has been back a couple of weeks and while he isn't Joe Montana, he is fairly efficient moving the offense and I think his arm will set up a lot of 2nd and 3s and 2nd and 4s which SF will bludegon the Rams on the ground and pick up lots of 1st downs.

I also locked up the Bengals +7.5.  I don't think the line will get any better and I feel confident with them catching over a TD.  As Mac said(and some Bengals players), the focus of the offense went to the run game after TO went down and just like 2009 when they were one of the better teams in the league, they looked mighty good last week against the Browns. I expect a cold, grimy game with the warm weather Chargers possibly walking into a buzzsaw.  Honestly, I hope SD finds a way to win it late because I love to see the noise they can make in the playoffs.

Also played a "degenerate" teaser for some early week action.  Pitt -8.5 and Dallas -.5.  DD is just too fucking much to lay unless it is the most perfect of spots, and I think the dreaded backdoor has a lot less of a chance to occur on 8 than 14+.  Pitt quietly has been going through some offensive woes, and what better place to oil up the machine than a Week 16 pre-postseason tune up against a team with an offense so bad it should give Pittsburgh plenty of opportunities to work with short fields.  Although I wished the Dallas team plane to crash and instantly kill the entire organization after blowing that 27-7 lead to Washington last week, I am going back to them.  They noticeably let their foot off the gas pedal last week, and when they build the early lead this week, I don't see it happening again. 

I'm eyeing down a couple more games and will be back later in the week.......really could use a break.  Been getting hammered from all angles(S Miss last night is another example of losing a game I thought I capped well), and just need a little light at the end of the tunnel before rolling into the playoffs.  I don't mean to sound like a broken record, but it is staggering what is going on.  It's at the point where I feel a bit embarrassed even posting my plays.  I've been dropping picks on here for over 5 years and always at a really solid % from NFL to bowl games to occasional NBA or MLB plays.  Clogging up a nice thread and going 50% on the season isn't helping anyone.