NFL Week 16

YTD ATS: 44-38...........ML Dogs: 12-21 (-1.68)


Pittsburgh -13

I've been saying for a few weeks now that big underdogs on Thursdays have been real bad. Here's the numbers again: With the Chargers easy cover last week favorites of -5.5 or more are now 16-2 ATS on Thursdays (including Thanksgiving) since the NFL Network started airing Thursday games in 2006.

Every week people try to get cute and take the dog on Thursday but this is a situation that favors the favorite. My theory? Short weeks are very tough for anybody but for teams that are not as good as the other team it is even tougher because they lose a ton of time trying to come up with a solid game plan to overcome the gap. Last week San Francisco had one full practice and one walk through to prepare for San Diego and as we saw it was just no contest. How are the Panthers going to be able to come up with something to compete with Pittsburgh? Even without Polamalu the Steelers defense is one of the toughest in the league to read. Asking Jimmy Clausen to come in and keep it respectable is asking a hell of a lot. Carolina relies on the run game and odds are that it will be shut down against the best run defense in the league.

Could Pittsburgh overlook the Panthers? Maybe, but they are off a loss and so far this year this veteran team has remained focused after a loss and are 3-0 SU & ATS.

I'll continue to ride this money making machine until she goes down.

gl nice info

High number for a team that plays down to it's opponent but that 16-2 trend can't be ignored. I'll prob be playing Pit in a monster tease as they need this game to ensure they don't let the division slip away.

Hey Mac- thoughts on the Matty Ice streak to finally end this week?

You and I agree that the Falcons have caught every break known to man this season---love New Orleans this Monday.  Falcons really haven't played a good team in a month and situationally the Saints losing sets up this team nicely this week.

There are so many good looking games this week and Pittsburgh is certainly one of them. The Panthers got that long awaited win they've been looking for last week, and on Thursday, they'll play like the Vikings did last night. Cold,scared, and disinterested in fighting.

Man these guys have killed me this year. I'd actually be having a decent season if I had not bet against Atlanta this year. I'm not sure I can go back to the well. Every year there is a magical team that seems to drastically overachieve, catch every break, and get it done regardless of the situation. Atlanta is clearly that team this year.

The week I jump off is the week the Falcons get spanked.

Any thoughts on the UNDER?

I was thinking the under should be good because as you said, the Steelers strength of shutting down the run will fare well with what the Panthers want to do...run the ball.  I just worry about Clausen being forced to throw on 3rd and long leading to easy turnovers and scores for Pitt.

Either way, I like your play on Pitt.

GL

Solid point. There will be no "edge" to Carolina this week at all. Just a "yeah whatever, get me outta here" attitude.

I also don't see Pittsburgh totally overlooking these guys because they need to get their offense in gear. These guys know they need to get their offense going for the playoffs to be able to outscore teams like the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers (if they get there) and this could be a nice game to iron out some kinks and get it in rhythm. They did pick up 25 first down and almost 400 yards against the Jets defense so a big breakout may be on the horizon.

There really isn't much of a threat of a backdoor cover for Carolina here either (at least offensively) as Jimmy Clausen is the worst QB in the league and even asking this offense to get a back door against this type of defense is asking a lot.

This line is up to -14.5 and I've got -13. Whatever the result is I know I've got my money in good, but I have a hard time seeing anything other than a result similar to the 35-3 ass whipping Pittsburgh put on Oakland.

Good grab at 13.  I snoozed for half a day and it jumped to 14.5.

One that jumped out at me is the Bengals.  Another would be Saints ML and Jets ML.

You like anyone tonight in the bowl game?

I'm awful with totals.

No real opinion on the total, I just think Pittsburgh waxes em.

Nah man I haven't even looked at it.

I have a feeling I will be on the Bengals again this week too. It's funny, Terrell Owens gets hurt early last week and the Bengals don't throw it 40 times a game and instead get back to the run game which was their bread and butter last year, and they win.

The Bengals record when they have run the ball over 30 times: 3-0

The Bengals record when they have run the ball less than 30 times: 0-11


Hmmmmm.

I agree, this is going to be the obvious/square play but Pittsburgh should handle this one with ease.  I am thinking shutout...can't see Carolina scoring, maybe on a late TD by Stewart or something

Exactly why I like them.  I can't imagine why they came into this season with a throw only mentality.

I agree....and the Bengals win SU vs SD this week

Hey Andy,

what do u think of the Lions again this week? They finally got a win they can build off of and Miami is a stunning 0-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 pts under Sparano.

Detroit should be able to keep this within a FG and maybe even win again this week.

Look for Pitt and under in a blowout

Haven't we learned anything from the Bungholes yet ? The statistical disparities between these two teams is like comparing an Anchor Steam to a Bud Light. Not just obvious things, but little things like YPP per down, 3rd and <2 conversion %, # of plays of >10 yds., % of neg. ydg. plays, blah, blah, blah.

There's certainly more than a few dogs to chase this weekend, but these cynical, undercoached, overrated quitters aren't one of them.

listen 13 or 14.5 aint going to happen steelrs win thi huge cause panther already had locked up top draft picks so 1 more win wasnt going to hurt them

was crazy they were favored but i guess the books knew cards rookie 1st road game wasnt going to respond

 

 PITT

 

 

I wouldn't read to much into this stat. Teams run more often after they get leads and pass more often when they fall behind.

Against Browns last week Bengals led 10-7 at half and 16-7 after 3 quarters therefore they ran more often "because" of their lead.

You can find this excellent info in FO almanac.......................

Bengals in 2009......... ran the ball 47% of plays

in the 1st half ran the ball 45% of plays

in the 2cd half when behind ran the ball "only" 33% of plays

in the 2cd half when ahead ran the ball "a whopping" 68% of plays

this pattern fits every single team in the league.

and to think the Ravens lost to these clowns,the Bengals are praying for a blizzard....