NFL Week 11

YTD: 50-49

9-3 run after hitting with Philly's thrashing of the Redskins.  Can't wait for Monday night...unloading on San Diego and will add to it if I have a solid week in college and pro's. 


Chicago/Miami "under" 40.5

I lean Chicago but it's always a big risk betting on Cutler and it's even a bigger risk doing it two weeks in a row.  I think Jake Long's situation is the key here.  I expect Thigpen to be under constant pressure, but don't know what to expect from Cutler so I'll stay away from the side. I just hope neither of these QB throw any pick 6's and Miami better not kick to Hester.

Chicago 16-13

Detroit/Dallas "over" 47

Two of the most pass happy teams in the league playing indoors...this should be fun.

Dallas 30-24

New York Jets -7

Mainly fading an overrated Houston team whose over performance is shadowed by a good offense.  This team is 4-5 but they aren't even that good.  I know they had a last second lost against Jacksonville, which will only hurt their spirits this week, but of their 4 wins, two were incredible comebacks where it took TDs in the final seconds of each game. I know the Jets struggled against both Det. and Cleveland, but those teams are arguably better than Houston.  Houston now travels to cold weather New York Schaub will need to have a big day as the Jets should shut down Foster and the Texan running game. 

Jets 30-17

New York Giants + ?

Gonna lock this in before kick off...waiting for 3.5 but will settle for 3.  Thanks to Wash and Dallas last week, I believe this will hit 3.5 or more.  Philly and Vick looked great Monday night, but this isn't the Wash defense.  Eagles are riding high feeling real good about themselves, while the Giants just got embarrassed by the lowly Cowboys. 

Giants 27-24

San Diego -10 LARGE
Denver/San Diego "over" 50.5

I think this game turns out like the Sunday night game between these two a couple years ago when SD dropped the hammer.  I was on SD big then too. San Diego off a bye, which I typically don't care about, but they truly needed it to nurse some injuries and will likely have several key players back, specifically some WR's.  I don't do very many parlays and don't keep track of my parlay record, but I'm also going to parlay San Diego/Over. 

SD 44-17 

Other leans...Carolina/Baltimore under, SF,Detroit,Min and Cleveland.

I do lean under in the Thursday nighter.

With respect to the Lions and Cowboys I think people are being to quick to assume a Cowboy resurrection already. The under in the Dallas game will be one of my biggest plays of the week with the two backup QB's. Dallas has continued to allow points for the better part of two months and IMO, I think Garret will make defense a focus this week against an overrated Detroit squad.

Look forward to discussing the games more as the week goes on

 

Also, forgot to mention that both Dallas and Detroit play next Thursday on Thanksgiving, so both will likely trying to get a win and get to next week where they can have a performance suitable for national TV.

gl this week brother

Both teams coming off a win. Bears letdown or Miami?

Of course, i'll be cheering for the Bears.

Not going to pull the trigger yet until i hear more about Jake Long.

BOL in week 11, mate!

Vincent Jackson has been practicing w/ the Team and is go to go for this game...Surprised the line is so high ,,,I'll wait till all the stiffs bet the line down.....

BOLTS...

Love the large play on the Chargers Monday night, I have a big play on it also.......

Chargers..

bol bear 

Am I a square for licking my chops on ATL -3

solid plays

Cal

BOL this week Cal!

looks like a really nice card... the publics going to pound the eagles. Vick won't have the same luck against a NYG defense thats looking to restore their reputation

Packers beat Vikings twice this season? I really hope so as it's revenge time for last year. Blow them out please! :)

Good luck bud

fAVRE suprises this week. He's got no reason not to unless his arm falls off...and his leg....and his wrist...He just can't get tackled, that's all. Otherwise its a sick fuckin' sshootout!

Brady
Phat

Bigniner- The fact that both teams are playing with back ups doesn't concern me.  Books know this and have set the line with that in mind as both QB's have played enough to know what to expect this year.  Kitna looked terrible in his first game against the Giants on Monday night, but since he has shown he can move the ball as the Cowboys have avg over 300 ypg passing in their last 3 games.  And Shawn Hill has already played in 7 games and has helped Det form a solid passing game ranking 7th in passing yards per game.  I expect him to play well against a Dallas defense that has been struggling.  Both these pass defenses will be tested as Det. is #1 in pass attempts and Dallas is # 6. It's not a coincidence that these teams are 13-5 to the over!  The one thing that does struggle me is that Detroit offense doesn't fair as well on the road, however, at least they will be in the confines of a stadium which should make them more comfortable.  Totals are a crap shoot, so I'm going smaller than my sides, but GL.

Shakey

HK- I believe Jake will play but I'm not sure how effective he'll be.  Also, center, Berger will be out.  GL Kane

Playa- Those 10 pts will be tempting for the public to take.  However, I don't expect this line to go down.  GL

PT- Smart man

Doc,blu, dtown, dov- Thx and BOL to you guys this weekend.

Blain- I like how Bradford and St. Louis has been playing.  I think they have a great shot at winning.  They have quietly gone 7-2 ATS...4-1 at home.

hit parlay- Thx..GL to you as well.

run- I feel sorry for your opponent.

GL PG!

Doc, I completely agree.

bouncer- I lean vikings but that coach has lost his team so I'll stay away.  GL to you.

Skippy, small GL fellas

Trav, he is hard to figure out but that wouldn't surprise me one bit.  GL

Bigniner- The fact that both teams are playing with back ups doesn't concern me.  Books know this and have set the line with that in mind as both QB's have played enough to know what to expect.  Kitna looked terrible in his first game against the Giants on Monday night, but since he has shown he can move the ball as the Cowboys have avg over 300 ypg passing in their last 3 games.  And Shawn Hill has already played in 7 games and has helped Det form a solid passing game ranking 7th in passing yards per game.  I expect him to play well against a Dallas defense that has been struggling.  Both these pass defenses will be tested as Det. is #1 in pass attempts and Dallas is # 6. It's not a coincidence that these teams are combined 13-5 to the over!  The one thing that does concern me is that Detroit's offense doesn't fair as well on the road as for PPG, however, at least they will be in the confines of a stadium which should make them more comfortable.  Totals are a crap shoot, so I'm going smaller than my sides, but GL.

CalBear.....LOVE that card. Those picks will go undefeated this week

TNF UNDER