season --- 17-7-1, won 10.15 units
9ers -3 (-115) over Jags --- 1.15 units
Browns +6.5 over Ravens --- 2.2 units
9ers in a regression spot as well as our top 3 performers week 1 off 3 ATS losses, good spot for 9ers.
Ravens a Bator method fade. There are other parameters added into Ravens dominance. Browns the right play.
I've been back n forth on this 9er jags game, and I am leaning the home dog. It's actually a heavy juiced -3 now and with so much 9er love will it go to 3.5? If so, the Jags have tremendous value at that point. My only play is Under 44.5 here. Jax is tough at home, well rested and I can't chase a 9ers win because they should get back on track.
GL claw
I saw a guy on you tube saying pro were coming in on 9ers earlier in the week.
Will find out for sure today
I saw a sharp said on Jags game 2 weeks ago Jags should have a regression but they didn't so this week he says back the Jags.
If Jags should regress and they won SU & ATS they should be higher probability to regress this week.
When he has switched after losing he lost Everytime ATS.
I call those switch games.
He did it recently backing Pats, then Jones gets a safety late, more of a fluke loss ATS, then he was terrified to back Jones.
As soon as he didn't want anything to do with Pats, they roll the Bills
Having some issues logging into the site. I log in then go to post and it says you aren't log in.
Then I log in go to my account, click on my thread and try to post but says you aren't log in. How can I not be logged in when I went into my account?
Site won't let me log in and post at times.
Started last week at the end of Boys/Eagles games. Could log in to post on the end of game. Well, I log in but when I tried to post said you not logged in. Couldn't post.
Watching a you tube video guy saying Eagles are the 2cd luckiest team this season.
They got lots cky again VS boys . Stopped half yard short on 4th for TD, boys get the stop, roll down the field, this time score but 2 pt conversion Dak steps out half yard short again.
That was good for push if he gets it. Then getting the ball back driving down field looks like boys may get the TD then Dak sacked, give eagles credit.
There Dak was foolish in my view, he held the ball to long, he needs a mental clock to throw ball away at that point in game considering time And downs left.
Plenty of time and downs to score, you can't risk getting sacked by always looking for the big miracle play. Sometimes you need to play smarter.
Here's interesting parameter could possibly be added into Ravens regression of a Bator method fade.
Bator fade is score 30 pts or more while giving up 10 or less back to back.
Ravens scored 35 or more while giving up 7 or less back to back, that is more extreme dominance. The more extreme generally the higher the probability.
Also they score 37 or more and gave up 6 or less back to back. Wow dominance.
Then we can also add in Ravens out,-gained opp by over 300 yards, all indicating of extreme performance, not sustainable level of play.
Can either Dog or Jowchoo run those querries ?
35 or more giving up 7 or less.
37 or more giving up 6 or less
Then add in out-gained opp by over 300 yards and see if that increases the %
Yes just realized that then looked it up.
Not really a play, but Bator method in 2 of past 3 games I do play sometimes.
Will buy out at least 1 unit.
Have to look up the Bator method 2 out of 3 games
It could be a bounce Factor play but doesn't fit it perfectly, but I do play it in some cases.
Out-gaining opp last game by over 300 yds is likey a good spot to fade Ravens.
If you look at Ravens pts scored,readily their 3 best points of the season and in succession with 2 games beating their best points by 9 and 10 pts, offense could be in regression this game as well.
I figured Ravens regress last week to Seahawks
forgot Lamar has insane record vs NFC. Browns are the right play, even this season the Ravens show regression after a completely dominating game.
week 1: 25-9
week 2: 3 point win
week 4: 28-3
week 5: lost by 7
week 7: 38-6
week 8: 7 point win as a -10 Fav
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