NFL season wins data

7)  There have been 84 teams that have finished with 4 regular season wins the season prior.....the median wins for them the following season was 7, and of course we now have an extra game, so we'll say that the average expectation for them their following season is 7.4. 

Teams that won four games.....Raiders, Patriots, Jaguars

8)  There have been 85 teams that won >=13 regular season games the previous season.....median wins the following season?.......the answer is 10 (and we'll add an extra half game to the calculations because of the 17th game)......Chiefs, Lions, Bills, Vikings

9)  There have been 47 teams that won >=12 regular season games in consecutive seasons, the means wins for those teams the following season is 11.....Lions, Ravens

10)  There have been 107 teams that won at least 12 games their previous season, and the season before that they won less than 12 games....the mean wins for those teams has been 9 (whereas in angle #9 above the mean has been 11 wins), which has meant that those teams have not been consistently excellent over a couple of seasons will have a greater possibility of falling after having their very good season.

Teams in this situation:

  a)  Vikings....season wins over 8.5, -155

  b)  Commanders....9.5, -120

  c)  Chiefs 11.5, -102

  d)  Eagles 11.5, -118

  e)  Bills 11.5, -160

There have been 24  teams that won more than 12 games, and the season prior won less than 8 games.......those teams have a mean of 8 wins their next season......Vikings, Commanders

Will the Vikings and/or the Commanders fall off a cliff this season?

11)  Teams that won all 6 of their divisional games the season prior have a mean average of 4 regular season divisional wins the following season.....Lions

12)  Teams that won 5 out of 6 divisional games the season prior have a mean average of 3 regular season divisional wins the following season......Commanders, Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, Texans

13)  Those teams that won 5 or 6 regular season divisional games their previous season went 61-91 ATS as home divisional favorites of less than 8.5 points after week 4.

Surprisingly those same teams  went 106-131 ATS in non-divisional games as home favorites of less than 8.5 points after week 4.....something to keep an eye on this season.......Lions, Commanders, Chiefs, Texans, Eagles

14)  Week 1 divisional home underdogs week 1 since 2008.....24-7 ATS (+6.7), 17-12 straight up (+2.6)......Browns, Seahawks, Falcons

15)  A home divisional dog or divisional favorite of four or less in week 1 playing a divisional opponent that made the playoffs the season prior .....28-12 ATS (+3.2), 23-16 (+1.5) straight up (+1.5)........Bears, Packers, Falcons

The truism that Home Divisional Dog was a +EV (1900-2000) +53.7%

has eroded to (49.3%) since,  with a horrific section (2000-2010) 46.5%

The league is starting this year with 7 DIV games and I think that is smart. Would like to see

week 1 and 2 and week 16 and 17 all divisional tilts.

Superb research, much appreciated. Could you be so kind to include your query text for this particular angle. TIA

7)  

Query text(s).......

7)  PRSW=4 and team and season and playoffs=0

8)  PRSW>=13 and team and season and playoffs=0

9)  PPRSW>=12 and PRSW>=12 and season and team and playoffs=0

10) PRSW>=12 and PPRSW<12 and season and team and playoffs=0

11) PRSW>12 and PPRSW<8 and season and team and playoffs=0

I post this article every year or so......it is worth reading and pondering if we're serious about winning in the sports betting markets.

https://www.themonthly.com.au/december-2005-january-2006/essays/mr-huge

It is the story of Alans Woods (Australian) and Bill Benter (American) and how they developed a program(s) to win hundreds of millions punting on the horses.  Basically they developed their own odds, that were more efficient than what the house were making, using over 100 parameters to determine what the true odds would/should be.  If the house had "Ol' Yeller" at 7 to 1 and Benter/Woods had them at 5 to 1, it was an overlay and a bet.  It took them a couple of years to fine-tune their system, and after that they made over 10 million a year for quite a long time in Hong Kong.

Two correlations can be made to the sports betting markets....a)  they were fading public opinion and b)  they were making their own odds.  If one was to attempt making a power rating like a Sagarin or Massey, it would be coming with the supposition that one's power ratings or cumulative comparison of the relative strength of the teams in the NFL was more accurate than what was put out to the public as a starting point to bet.  

That is a HUGE assumption.........that your or my ratings would be more accurate than Vegas, however the line is not 100% a measure of relative strength of the two teams, but also what Vegas knows about the betting patterns of their betting population.....in other words they make it more difficult for a team to cover that has the fancy of their clientele, making Kansas City -7, when their relative strength computations would have them -5.  However, I believe one reason that many very good gamblers believe that the NFL is unbeatable over the long haul is that overlay betting does not work and that it is more profitable to bet against "value" in betting the NFL.

Fading the public is an easier exercise....however this is a topic that creates quite a bit of angst among bettors and most dismiss it out of hand......you have to track it or have data that has tracked it before if considering it as a  possible valid way to increase success.  

I know this.....when I have used fading the public as a filter, not as a standalone, but using historical angles as a primary, and not taking a team that has over 50% of the public on them, it has increased my winning percentage by 5-10%.

No one is holding a gun to your head that this THE WAY.....we are not in business telling you this is the only way to sports betting nirvana, if you want to have Fido decide between eating out of the blue bowl and the red bowl to make your picks, and Fido has a hit rate of 60%, then do it that way.....it has worked for me and when I have been disciplined about it, it has paid off.

And, when serious about getting good at this or anything else, we study those who have had massive success.....like an investor studying Gann or Buffet, or in sports betting,  Alan Woods and Bill Benter.

Good stuff.The card counting MIT crew also showed that math can be your friend.After all is said and done

a review of the math is the TRUTH.

I believe there is ample data suggesting that teams that are the outliers in TOM (turnover margins) greater or lesser than 10 in a season

are +EV if their win totals the following season are against the regression data.

Example;

1. BUFF : had a +24 TOM last year where their win total was 10.5, so their win total this year is 11-130 (higher than last year where data

suggests that it will come in lower). On under 11

2. LAC : had a +12 TOM last year with a win total of 9. This years total is 9.5 -110, which is higher triggering a play.

3. PHIL : had +11 TOM last year with a win total of 10.5, This years win total is 11.5-110, imo nice value to the UNDER.

4. JAX : had a -15 TOM last year with a win total of 8.5,yet their win total this year is 7.5 -115 triggering an OVER play.

5. TENN : had a -16 TOM last year with a win total of 6.5, yet this year their number is 5.5. Play on OVER

6. CLEV : had a -22 TOM last year with a win total of 8.5 yet their at 5.5+110 this year...yum I will have some of that.

We differ with respect to your candy store analogy. I like more options, the better to identify VALUE and the numbers of yearly plays is unlimited if the

MATH supports it. Yearly win totals never occupied my research much but that has changed. Nothing is for sure but potential +EV plays will

always have my attention.......................................Good Luck pal

Correction the BUFF win total is 11.5

16)  9 wins was the median wins for a team with a turnover margin of >=+10 (TOM<=-10 in query text), the previous season who won more than 11 games...........Bills, Eagles

17)  7 wins was the median wins for a team with a more than a -10 turnover ratio the previous season (TOM>=10 in query text), that won less  than 6 games......Browns, Jaguars, Titans, Raiders, Patriots

Query text.........tpS(TOM)>=10 and season and team and PRSW<6 and playoffs=0

The database goes back to 1989, so remember with the exception of the last couple of seasons, these total wins were compiled in a 16 game season.

Obviously we are seeing regression at its finest in these season-to-season investigations.

16)  A week 1 divisional away dog that missed the playoffs the previous season playing a team that made the playoffs the previous season.....19-8 ATS (+4.2), 11-16 straight up (-1.9).....ON Cowboys, Giants

17)  A week 1 home divisional favorite that missed the playoffs last season playing a team that made the playoffs the season prior.......10-3 ATS (+3.7), 10-3 straight up (+7.3).....ON Bears

18)  Teams that outrush attempt their present opponent win 80.2% of the time in the regular season.  (This is not calculating a team coming into the game who has averaged more rushing attempts than their opponent has.)

They cover 75.3% of the time, which is pretty great,  covering by an average of 7.2 points/game.

One team will be very run heavy this season for sure that could exceed the public's expectations.... is the Browns, now that they have gotten rid of their pass happy offensive coordinator and Kevin Stefanski will be running things on the offensive end.  Hardly anyone will be wanting to back them, which is very, very good for a running team.

Their defense will be good, they will be getting heaps of points and their games will be slugfests.  I will be on them, A LOT.

Of course, the NFL is a copycat league, and people will try to replicate what Philly did last season.....Seattle is an example....not so confident of them with their very questionable offensive line and of course Sam Darnold is not going to scare anyone with his legs.