NFL season wins data

I got this information off of the VSIN website, and Steve Makinen from last year, and I have not updated the data, so the information will be one year old which won't include last year's results.

1)  Teams that won >=13 games the prior season, but did not go to the Super Bowl, out of 42 teams in this situation NONE improved their record the following season, and only four equaled it, decreasing their win total by an average of 3.71 wins the next season.....Bills, Lions, Vikings

2)  Super Bowl losers from the year prior have won an average of 3.3 less games the following season.....Chiefs

3)  Teams that had 8 or more close wins (a win by <=8 points) their previous season won an average of 3.3 less wins the following season, four of these teams improved the next season in this situation and 29 teams did not.....Vikings, Chiefs, Eagles, Commanders, Rams

4)  Thirty-seven out of forty-three teams that lost at least 8 games by less than 9 points in their season improved the next season, by an average of 3.84 wins......Jaguars, Giants

Plays:

1)  Chiefs UNDER  11' wins

2)  Vikings UNDER  8' wins

3)  Rams UNDER    10' wins

4)  Eagles UNDER 11' wins

5)  Jaguars OVER  6' wins

6)  Giants OVER    5' wins

GREAT info.  Thanks.

Yet another reason to fade KC this year.

Chiefs are fade city this year, three very good coaches in division to oppose them....those division teams will beat each other to a pulp, would not be surprised if there are a lot of injuries to people like Mahomes next season.

To win the Division:

Chargers @ +275 

Broncos @ +375

These are better prices than to to the Chiefs under wins.  The risk is how much do the Chiefs regress.  I omitted the Raiders @20-1 no need for this one.

@Indigo999

 This is great info..  Thanks again for posting.  

MIN is already degraded significantly by the books from a 14-win season ; I'm not sure the value on this one, particularly w/ A. Rogers hanging out there to "maybe" displace JJ for one season ?   Even w/ JJ at the helm at QB, this one looks priced about right. 

Out of all these you mentioned,  I probably like the Under on the Rams the most.    A deeper look also shows a -19 point differential last year, despite a 10-7 record.. Consistent with a team that "over-exceeded" expectations based on their +/- point differential.    There has been a lot of flux w/ the NFC West this offseason, particularly with SF & SEA, so that my explain why the 'books are hanging w/ 10 wins for LAR.  But they lost an important piece as well with Cooper Cupp.  This still looks like the best play.  

GL on those plays Indigo !   

[Quote: Originally Posted by spottie2935]To win the Division: Chargers @ +275  Broncos @ +375 These are better prices than to to the Chiefs under wins.  The risk is how much do the Chiefs regress.  I omitted the Raiders @20-1 no need for this one.[/Quote]

IMHO, I don't think you're being compensated enough on either one of those.. Then you have the "sophomore jinx" w/ Bo Nix in DEN.   You often see it with 2nd year QBs because DC's get a better handle on first year QB's tendencies.  CJ Stroud is the most recent example.    Not a dramatic drop-off with him... but a drop-off nonetheless.  Expect the same from Bo Nix. 

I have not pulled the trigger on these plays yet....I agree with your assessment of Minnesota...that division will also be tough now that someone who knows what they are doing is in Chicago.  (We'll find out this year if Caleb Williams can really play.)  The coaching staff at Minnesota is upper echelon....I wouldn't like them very much as favorites, but as dogs they still can be considered, certainly they could go 2-4 in their divisional games.  The Vikings get the AFC North and NFC East as their out of division games, including Cinci and Baltimore at home, and their extra game is on the road against the Chargers. 

The Chiefs after winning the Super Bowl have had very difficult years against the spread, so perhaps betting against them against the spread, especially at home is the best option, they still won games, but failed to cover.   I expect Mahomes to have a down year again in comparison to his body of work up until last year, which was not what we had come to expect from him.

In favor of the LAC at +275:

2024 regular season net points

KC   +59

LAC  +101

However, per Jeff Sagarin the LAC were only 1-4 SU vs. his Top Ten while playing the #29th ranked Strength of Schedule.

I am a Los Angeles resident, so I certainly hope that the Chargers finish ahead of the Chiefs.  Good luck with your season futures, spottie.

5)  Teams that went winless in divisional games the previous season have won 42% of their divisional games straight up the following year going 120-90-3 against the spread since 2002 when every team played six divisional games.......Raiders, Giants in divisional games.

For whatever reason, those teams have performed poorly in January games going 6-13 ATS....all other months have been profitable.  

6)  Home favorites that will be underdogs their next two games have gone 269-386-13 ATS in the regular season, 41.1%

7)  Away favorites that will be underdogs their next two games have gone 76-102-5 ATS, 42.7%.

8)  Away dogs that will be favored their next two games have gone 418-290-18 ATS, 59%.

9)  Home dogs that will be favored their next two games have gone 87-76-3 ATS, 53.4%

@DogbiteWilliams

 I bet against the Chargers in the playoffs for the same reason as you stated.  I am agreeing with under Chiefs season wins.  The idea is to propose ideas.  The point I am making is IF the Chiefs fall it will not be short fall from Elite 13+ to 11  wins and still take care of the Division.  I predict a greater fall out.  Thus the odds on the other squads odds come into play. Which team is the better option? I am not sure yet.  I think the other teams are better based upon + odds. 

In my opinion the better odds, comes with more risk and maybe the odds don't provide enough payout to risk it for some bettors , but I am  a sucker for + money.  I am not a big fan of futures and waiting months to cash in either.  Unless of course I can get big odds if something hits my brain .  No light on this for on even money futures.  Thats why I try to circumvent under season wins, or even money bets that have month of waiting. 

under Chiefs and a few of these are fairly safe winning bets I am just looking for other +money opportunities if I have to wait until January to grade these wagers. 

I would like to see the books set different lines with greater odds such as Chiefs under 9 wins.  

At the current line and the time I have to wait.  Doesn’t interest me.  I can use the money in better ways.  I can also fade the Chiefs in season and do better than -110 on a season wins bet. 

I believe strongly the under Chiefs bet wins though. 

Hit some money on the Derby on Saturday, so threw down a four unit bet on the AZ Cardinals to win more than 8.5 games and one unit on them to win the NFC West at 5.5-1 odds. 
Their run defense:

2023: 32nd

2024: 20th

2025: predicting top 12

Lot of upside in the desert this off-season.

[/Quote]   IMHO, I don't think you're being compensated enough on either one of those.. Then you have the "sophomore jinx" w/ Bo Nix in DEN.   You often see it with 2nd year QBs because DC's get a better handle on first year QB's tendencies.  CJ Stroud is the most recent example.    Not a dramatic drop-off with him... but a drop-off nonetheless.  Expect the same from Bo Nix.

So, Bo is going to have a drop off? That's a wonderful recipe. Always tell Nix that he's supposed to do worse than expected. IMHO, he will eclipse last year's numbers by a mile.

I tinkered with Query #6 and got this:

HF and n:D and nn:D and not PO = 1 and op:WH and week < 14.5 and season > 2013 

SU:  31-40-1 (-2.2,43.7%)

ATS:  21-50-1 (-5.9,29.6%)  Z = 3.32

This looks pretty solid; I hope it doesn't immediately start to regress.

[Quote: Originally Posted by best_bets][/Quote]   IMHO, I don't think you're being compensated enough on either one of those.. Then you have the "sophomore jinx" w/ Bo Nix in DEN.   You often see it with 2nd year QBs because DC's get a better handle on first year QB's tendencies.  CJ Stroud is the most recent example.    Not a dramatic drop-off with him... but a drop-off nonetheless.  Expect the same from Bo Nix. So, Bo is going to have a drop off? That's a wonderful recipe. Always tell Nix that he's supposed to do worse than expected. IMHO, he will eclipse last year's numbers by a mile.[/Quote]

I get it "John Elway and Denver Fan"...  

I like the Cardinals and the improvement they've shown under their coach....the issue I have with them is that don't seem to take advantage of their home field and the desert climate.....they've played much better against the spread on the road.

Their number one wide receive pick looked only average last year, though granted wide receivers don't usually excel in their first year....this year will be the acid test for him.

I could definitely see them taking the division this year....there's always one or two divisional winners every year that come out of nowhere.,,,,,i don't see any of the other NFC West teams doing too well this year.

1)  Week 1 favorites that will be underdogs their next game.....91-125-11 ATS, 42.1%....VERSUS Eagles, Commanders, Jaguars, Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Colts, Eagles

2)  Week 1 underdogs that will favored their next two games.....67-40-3 ATS, 62.6%...ON Vikings, Ravens, Texans, Chargers

3)  Week 1 underdogs that will be favored next game versus a team that will be an underdog their next game....61-35-3 ATS, 63.6%....ON Cowboys, Dolphins, Ravens, Vikings

4)  Before week 8, a home favorite whose next game is on Thursday has gone 24-70-2 ATS, 25.5%....................................week 1 VERSUS Packers, Commanders

Obviously lines are subject to change.

5)  In weeks 1-5 an away dog of less than 7 points who missed the playoffs last season, playing an opponent that will be an underdog their subsequent game......244-144-19 ATS, 62.1%....ON Panthers, Dolphins

A tightener to angle 5 with a slight correction.....we delete week 5, and we take away dogs up to and including 9 point underdogs.

6)  Take away underdogs of 9 points or less who missed the playoffs the previous season, who also won less than 9 games the previous season, in weeks 1, 2, 3 or 4, whose present opponent will be an underdog their next game.....248-139-13, 64.1%.

Those away dogs win straight up 45.4% of the time on an average line of +4.6.....calculating the average moneyline of +185 for an average line of +4.6, taking the moneyline instead of the pointspread will bring an average of 29% ROI, a slightly higher return than taking the pointspread.

Play ON.....Giants, Panthers, Dolphins

Add:  ON Raiders to #6.

Superb, thx professor.

DBW:

If you slap a totals filter you can squeeze an extra 9%.

HF and n:D and nn:D and not PO = 1 and op:WH and week < 14.5 and season > 2013 and 53>total>40.....(20%)......(11-43)