@vanzack Reverse line movement?? All the 7.5 are gone with the majority of the bets and money on KC I am having a hard time pulling the trigger on KC. I think the line is right, 7.5 seemed to be begging for Cin $ while 7 is screaming KC. Very low % of the time line actually matters so just pick the winner. KC should win so…… leaning KC and SF thanks for your write ups
I appreciate you posting.
But I am going to give you a PSA that will hopefully inspire you to think about things a little bit....
Stop looking for answers in line moves and those goofy percentages. It is the lazy gamblers fallacy. They mean nothing. Books try to predict ACTION, you are trying to predict RESULTS. They have nothing to do with each other.
If I was going to base a core belief on what you state in your post, I would want to know the following:
1. What is exactly "reverse line movement"?
2. Where do the percentages and bet information come from and how do I know it is real?
3. What is the historical statistical WL rate of these types of plays?
4. What is the criteria to reach a play that falls in to #3?
I have literally been asking this for years here. Nobody can reply. Betting percentages are the bigfoot of sports bettors.
do not trust the numbers at all, line dropping to 7 across the board is odd when it was 7.5 all week.
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