Posted:
#26
@vanzack
Rams win. Not even close!!!
0
NFL AFC and NFC Championship Week Early Thoughts and Picks....
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Degenbeter: Yeah I agree big time on KC covering. Not as confident on the 49rs however I’ve noticed over the years that when a team almost blows it as the Rams did last game they seem to bounce back the next game. I took KC -6.5 as soon as I saw it kneejerk kind of bet. And I’m thinking of teasing KC -1 and 49rs +10.5 kind of LARGE on that teaser. Glad you like both teams. BOL Teams that play 3 times in the same season, who are 2-0 going in to the 3rd game, are 14-7 I believe. I could be wrong there because I calculated myself - so please correct me if I am wrong.
Quote Originally Posted by Degenbeter: Yeah I agree big time on KC covering. Not as confident on the 49rs however I’ve noticed over the years that when a team almost blows it as the Rams did last game they seem to bounce back the next game. I took KC -6.5 as soon as I saw it kneejerk kind of bet. And I’m thinking of teasing KC -1 and 49rs +10.5 kind of LARGE on that teaser. Glad you like both teams. BOL Teams that play 3 times in the same season, who are 2-0 going in to the 3rd game, are 14-7 I believe. I could be wrong there because I calculated myself - so please correct me if I am wrong.
I heard the same exact numbers today. 14-7. The "it's hard to beat a team three times in a row" is a myth lately.
0
Posted:
#29
On the chiefs/bengals game from week 17, that was an all time performance by the zebras for Cincy. I didn’t have action on the game, but with my KC AFC futures I was heavily interested because of the worry of Kc having to play LAC in the WC. So many big bs calls to extend drives for cincy, or take away huge offensive plays for Mahomes. A fairly officiated game and the chiefs wouldve won by at least 7 maybe 14. They won’t get the necessary help from the zebras in Kansas City. Go KC
Can a swindler change his spots?
1
Posted:
#31
@vanzack
Nice write ups! With you, except for the projected totals. Barring a major let down, I can't see the Chiefs having to punt at all in this game, but I do think Cinci gets into the twenties. With Niners/Rams I'd wager one of these teams doesn't hit the 20s (which means you can unload on the over, ha ha!). A lot of people on both sides are talking about Jimmy G's liability, holding their breath when he drops back, etc. It's possible, but I think he's just as likely to pitch a gem. He's just not hitting his potential and I think the doubters - especially among the coaching staff, affect his play. If he can get into an attitude of saying "Fk IT" and get on a roll, I won't be surprised if a month from now we're counting the number of teams that want to give him his next big contract! You van laugh at that, and I wouldn't blame you, but I've seen what he's capable of...BOL
Question Authority
0
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Posting these early.... There are lots of stats out there to make a case for the Chiefs, but I am focused on one in particular - the defensive (chiefs) and offensive (bengals) "win rate" for pass rush. The Titans getting 9 sacks last week was no accident - the Bengals are last in the league (adjusted) in offensive pass rush protect win rate. They just cant protect. Burrow did pretty well all things considered - but he only had to put up 19 points because their opposition was "offensively challenged". The Chiefs are about 12th in defensive pass rush win rate. So what does that mean? Well - how many points do you think the Bengals need to cover the 7 this week at Arrowhead? Pick a number and then tell me if they are going to be able to score that many - with Burrow under pressure every drop back - with the Chiefs likely up on the scoreboard in must pass situations. The only way the Bengals win and or cover this game IMO is if they go possession for possession with the Chiefs, because I think KC will score on 8 of their 10 possessions or similar. No, the Chiefs defense is not spectacular - but any defense can become spectacular if the other team is one dimensional. That brings us to KC offense, against Bengals defense. The Bengals defense is around 20th or so in most key statistic categories (adjusted), and they have really gotten fortunate with their first two playoff opponents being mediocre offenses. The Chiefs are not a mediocre offense. I really cant see the Bengals putting the Chiefs in too many down and distance issues - the Chiefs are 5th in the NFL on 1st down on offense - while the Bengals defense is 31st!! on 1st down. This all says to me that the Chiefs will get out early, like they did on Jan 2. They will move the ball on offense, and shouldnt have a problem scoring on most possessions. When the Bengals become pass only - they will suffer. The Chiefs will be ready this time, and they will fold. KC 41 - 17
[
Posting these early.... There are lots of stats out there to make a case for the Chiefs, but I am focused on one in particular - the defensive (chiefs) and offensive (bengals) "win rate" for pass rush. The Titans getting 9 sacks last week was no accident - the Bengals are last in the league (adjusted) in offensive pass rush protect win rate. They just cant protect. Burrow did pretty well all things considered - but he only had to put up 19 points because their opposition was "offensively challenged". The Chiefs are about 12th in defensive pass rush win rate. So what does that mean? Well - how many points do you think the Bengals need to cover the 7 this week at Arrowhead? Pick a number and then tell me if they are going to be able to score that many - with Burrow under pressure every drop back - with the Chiefs likely up on the scoreboard in must pass situations. The only way the Bengals win and or cover this game IMO is if they go possession for possession with the Chiefs, because I think KC will score on 8 of their 10 possessions or similar. No, the Chiefs defense is not spectacular - but any defense can become spectacular if the other team is one dimensional. That brings us to KC offense, against Bengals defense. The Bengals defense is around 20th or so in most key statistic categories (adjusted), and they have really gotten fortunate with their first two playoff opponents being mediocre offenses. The Chiefs are not a mediocre offense. I really cant see the Bengals putting the Chiefs in too many down and distance issues - the Chiefs are 5th in the NFL on 1st down on offense - while the Bengals defense is 31st!! on 1st down. This all says to me that the Chiefs will get out early, like they did on Jan 2. They will move the ball on offense, and shouldnt have a problem scoring on most possessions. When the Bengals become pass only - they will suffer. The Chiefs will be ready this time, and they will fold. KC 41 - 17
right on there Van with the defensive pressure, Zach Taylor came out after that first game and said Chris Jones was the best defensive player they'd gone up against all season....Buffalo's offensive line is significantly better than the Bengals, Frank Clark, CJ95 and Ingram be spending lots of time that backfield often come Sunday....I see this game playing out similar to last year's AFC Championship game vs. Buffalo. Bengals might strike first but KC will go on their run at some point and get that double digit lead...from there Burrow will be in trouble. BOL all
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
0
Posted:
#34
As always, thanks for sharing your work. I've been riding along with your for a while here. I think the Rams/Niner game will be very close. Last time around, the Rams had the win and cover in hand and just needed a first down to ice it. they chose to burn up SF's time outs instead. the Niners were in what amounted to a de facto playoff game last time. the Rams were not. Not to say they weren't fighting, but they weren't fighting for their lives. I can see a scenario where it's close at the end and the Rams (due to better QB play) win by a TD. Coaching edge goes to SF of course. But I'll probably be on the Rams at home here. If their D is good enough to keep Tom Brady in check, it's good enough to force Jimmy G to make a crucial error.
0
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
VZ!! assuming both advance. Curious what do you think the SB line would be if both teams relatively healthy. KC vs SF rematch. Thanks bro
VZ!! assuming both advance. Curious what do you think the SB line would be if both teams relatively healthy. KC vs SF rematch. Thanks bro
I think we know that...
Caesars sent out a tweet that KC would be -3.5
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by B__Rabbit:
On the chiefs/bengals game from week 17, that was an all time performance by the zebras for Cincy. I didn’t have action on the game, but with my KC AFC futures I was heavily interested because of the worry of Kc having to play LAC in the WC. So many big bs calls to extend drives for cincy, or take away huge offensive plays for Mahomes. A fairly officiated game and the chiefs wouldve won by at least 7 maybe 14. They won’t get the necessary help from the zebras in Kansas City. Go KC
On the chiefs/bengals game from week 17, that was an all time performance by the zebras for Cincy. I didn’t have action on the game, but with my KC AFC futures I was heavily interested because of the worry of Kc having to play LAC in the WC. So many big bs calls to extend drives for cincy, or take away huge offensive plays for Mahomes. A fairly officiated game and the chiefs wouldve won by at least 7 maybe 14. They won’t get the necessary help from the zebras in Kansas City. Go KC
One of the reasons I am encouraging everyone to watch the game again.
It was a strange one.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by MP2056:
@vanzack Nice write ups! With you, except for the projected totals. Barring a major let down, I can't see the Chiefs having to punt at all in this game, but I do think Cinci gets into the twenties. With Niners/Rams I'd wager one of these teams doesn't hit the 20s (which means you can unload on the over, ha ha!). A lot of people on both sides are talking about Jimmy G's liability, holding their breath when he drops back, etc. It's possible, but I think he's just as likely to pitch a gem. He's just not hitting his potential and I think the doubters - especially among the coaching staff, affect his play. If he can get into an attitude of saying "Fk IT" and get on a roll, I won't be surprised if a month from now we're counting the number of teams that want to give him his next big contract! You van laugh at that, and I wouldn't blame you, but I've seen what he's capable of...BOL
@vanzack Nice write ups! With you, except for the projected totals. Barring a major let down, I can't see the Chiefs having to punt at all in this game, but I do think Cinci gets into the twenties. With Niners/Rams I'd wager one of these teams doesn't hit the 20s (which means you can unload on the over, ha ha!). A lot of people on both sides are talking about Jimmy G's liability, holding their breath when he drops back, etc. It's possible, but I think he's just as likely to pitch a gem. He's just not hitting his potential and I think the doubters - especially among the coaching staff, affect his play. If he can get into an attitude of saying "Fk IT" and get on a roll, I won't be surprised if a month from now we're counting the number of teams that want to give him his next big contract! You van laugh at that, and I wouldn't blame you, but I've seen what he's capable of...BOL
Not laughing. Can easily see all of what you see.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:
As always, thanks for sharing your work. I've been riding along with your for a while here. I think the Rams/Niner game will be very close. Last time around, the Rams had the win and cover in hand and just needed a first down to ice it. they chose to burn up SF's time outs instead. the Niners were in what amounted to a de facto playoff game last time. the Rams were not. Not to say they weren't fighting, but they weren't fighting for their lives. I can see a scenario where it's close at the end and the Rams (due to better QB play) win by a TD. Coaching edge goes to SF of course. But I'll probably be on the Rams at home here. If their D is good enough to keep Tom Brady in check, it's good enough to force Jimmy G to make a crucial error.
As always, thanks for sharing your work. I've been riding along with your for a while here. I think the Rams/Niner game will be very close. Last time around, the Rams had the win and cover in hand and just needed a first down to ice it. they chose to burn up SF's time outs instead. the Niners were in what amounted to a de facto playoff game last time. the Rams were not. Not to say they weren't fighting, but they weren't fighting for their lives. I can see a scenario where it's close at the end and the Rams (due to better QB play) win by a TD. Coaching edge goes to SF of course. But I'll probably be on the Rams at home here. If their D is good enough to keep Tom Brady in check, it's good enough to force Jimmy G to make a crucial error.
Understand the reasoning.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#49
@vanzack
Great write up man, you give a lot of beneficial information, for me at least. I have to agree with you on KC, they got the experience, coach, and qb which more times than not prevail in the playoffs. Throw in a bit of revenge factor and you got yourself pretty solid reasons for a KC win and cover. The second the Rams line came out at 3.5- I said Rams LINE DICTATES THE GAME. Man, that's an enticing line for a 9ers bettor, right? Not only did Vegas give ya 3 points after you've beat them 6 times in a row, they gave ya the hook as well AND you'll have more fans than the Rams at SOFI!!!! Cannot disagree with the points you made, very solid, especially about McVey self destructing in big games. BUT, Rams turn now. Donald, Floyd, Miller on the D line is where they're gonna win. Stafford, Kupp, ODB, Higbee, Akers will be too much. Jimmy G will get his interception or 2 because of the high pressure he will experience all game. I'm not getting into the conspiracy chit, but you really gotta think about the NFL and what Kronke did bringing that team to LA??? Just some food for thought and my take on the game. GL to you rest of the way and I enjoy reading your stuff!!!!!!!!!!!
0
Hot Forum Topics
