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**NFC Championship Game** GP and Write Up inside (GP's 29-12-1)

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Posted: #1

Ok, first off.  Sorry for those last two picks yesterday, I was in a rush and I did not put any time into capping them.  Was 8-1 in the NFL Playoffs ATS up to that point and got a little cocky by thinking I did not have to look that deeply into those games.  That WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN...

 

Now, on to the NFC Championship Game.  Sorry eagles backers, but this will not be as easy as the last time these two met.  Cardinals will not be on 4 days rest traveling to the east and playing a night game in the freezing whatever...  You have to throw out the regular season and cap this game based on the last two games that these teams have played.

 

I am a Cardinal Season ticket holder and could not be happier that not only are the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game, but they will play it at home.  Why?  Not because I’m a huge fan of the Cardinals, but because everyone and their brother will be on the Eagles.  One thing to point out is that even though I am a Cardinal Season Ticket Holder, I am a bigger fan of money.

 

The best thing about this game is that it will be played at HOME (perfect conditions), in a Dome (Roof will be closed).  Both of these factors benefit the Cardinals, offensively because of perfect conditions and defensively because of crowd noise (dome).  Not only have the Cardinals D line been playing very well, but now they get to have a better jump off the ball with the crowd noise making it impossible for the Eagles O line to use counts.  Just ask the Falcons what affect the noise had on their O line.  I was their, the Cards were off the ball before the O line was.

 

I love Dawkins; however, he will not be able to crowd the line of scrimmage in this game, which has been the key to the Eagles D.  The last two playoff games for the Eagles, they have not had to worry about a receiver like Fitzerald.  So, without an elite receiver to worry about, Dawkins was able to creep up and blitz, help stop the run, etc.  And if Boldin is able to play, wow, you are talking about the best trio of WR’s in the league.

 

Warner at home is insane and we will not be seeing horrible passes to open receivers like we did in the Giants game this past weekend.  These conditions will be perfect and the Cardinals will put up a lot of points in this one.

 

 

 
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Posted: #2

Alright, we know that the Cards will put up the points (as they have in both playoff games this year), so, the question is, will the Eagles be able to put up a lot of points in this one?  The Cardinals front 4 is very, very underrated and Adrian Wilson is up their as one of the best in the league at saftey.  The Cardinals D held in check the #2 and #3 rushing teams in the NFL while being able to get to the QB and cause not only fumbles but INT’s as well.  The Eagles O line is not as good as

 

The Eagles O line is not as good as either Carolina’s or Atlanta’s.  Both Carolina and Atlanta gave up fewer sacks than Philly, and we all saw how AZ was able to get pressure in these past two games.  Now, they will be able to use the crowd noise to add to an already huge advantage.  We all saw the Eagles O struggle in Minny with their crowd noise.

 

I think Arizona pulls this one out like the last two and I will gladly take the points here as well.

 

Another thing that I will add…

 

My opinion about the line movement or non-movement in the case.  It opened at Eagles -3 and with money coming in on the Eagles, it is now at Eagles -3 (-130).  Do not for one second think that this is heavy money for the Eagles, all this money is small and the heavy money is waiting for the line to go up to unload on AZ, which is why Vegas, for now, is just putting a ton of Juice on it.  Believe me here, Vegas is not the least bit scared with all this small money coming in on the Eagles.

 

GP  Cardinals +3  (waiting to see if there is enough small money to push the line off of +3)

 

 

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Golden Picks (GP’s) 29-12-1 (71%)

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Posted: #3
Cards
Warner 7-1 in the playoffs
D-Line... Berry, Smith, Dockett, LaBoy know how to get after the QB, especially @ home.
 
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Posted: #4
Should be a great game and a Coin flip IMO ... I cash some nice Futures if the Eagles Win the NFC and i will be hedging some for sure ...
 
BOL Brother and excellent writeup
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
 
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Posted: #5
Nice write up. I will have to disagree on one thing though,I live in vegas and have made the trip to AZ the last 3 years except for this one to watch the Seahawks play the Cards. The one common thing that every one of those fans has is that they are just waiting the whole game for the Cards to blow it. It doesn't get that loud until the game is almost won. I understand that it is a playoff game but if they start to trail by two scores you will probably be able to see everyone start to leave. You said it best and I think that 80% of the fans in AZ are right with you.
 
"Even though I am a Cardinal Season Ticket Holder, I am a bigger fan of money".
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by devo184:

Nice write up. I will have to disagree on one thing though,I live in vegas and have made the trip to AZ the last 3 years except for this one to watch the Seahawks play the Cards. The one common thing that every one of those fans has is that they are just waiting the whole game for the Cards to blow it. It doesn't get that loud until the game is almost won. I understand that it is a playoff game but if they start to trail by two scores you will probably be able to see everyone start to leave. You said it best and I think that 80% of the fans in AZ are right with you.
 
"Even though I am a Cardinal Season Ticket Holder, I am a bigger fan of money".

I respect your comment, but visiting just 3 times during season when they had no chance for the playoffs does is why you have no idea of how loud it gets in their. 

Apparently, cards fan are not like me because if you remember, against Atlanta, cards were down and because of the crowd noise, they again were able to get off the ball before the Atlanta O line and get to Matt Ryan before he was able to hand the ball off, caused a fumble and returned it for a TD.  Trust me, even if they are down, this is one loud place.

And as far as you saying the fans are waiting for them to blow it, not really sure what you are talking about when the Cards are 13-4 in the last two seasons at home.  Fans are expecting them to win every HOME game...  Maybe not AWAY, but at HOME, they expect it and are loud as heeeeeeell.

 
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Posted: #7
Talent, you've made valid points & I doubt this line will end up at +3.5 or +4. If it does, it will be a gift. Zona in a new stadium this year, it could be destiny!
 
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Posted: #8
LOL...be real....New York was loud yesterday, McNabb has been in games with crazy crowd noise.  Cards have already done more than anyone imagined.  Season is a success.  Giants never scored 2 TDs, neither did Minnesota.  Neither will Cards.  You mentioned the game they played earlier in the season, another blowout, sorry.
 
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Posted: #9
Also based on the Cards fans I know here that is a common theme. They can't get excited until it's almost over and I hear from them It's the Cardinals we can't get excited yet. You probably fall into the 20% who actually are fans, I understand that there are some. Also weren't you only down by 3?
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:

LOL...be real....New York was loud yesterday, McNabb has been in games with crazy crowd noise.  Cards have already done more than anyone imagined.  Season is a success.  Giants never scored 2 TDs, neither did Minnesota.  Neither will Cards.  You mentioned the game they played earlier in the season, another blowout, sorry.

I have this game going OVER the posed total, so Ariznoa will be scoring more than 2 tds imo!

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:

LOL...be real....New York was loud yesterday, McNabb has been in games with crazy crowd noise.  Cards have already done more than anyone imagined.  Season is a success.  Giants never scored 2 TDs, neither did Minnesota.  Neither will Cards.  You mentioned the game they played earlier in the season, another blowout, sorry.

Please do not try and compare an OLD as hell open stadium to a State-of-the-art Dome stadium that was built to amplify noise.

Also, good effort to on trying to comparing Giants O and Minny's O to the Cardinals O..

Oh and another good effort trying to compare a 4 days rest on the east coast in freezing whether to playing in perfect conditions at home..

APPLES and ORANGES...  say it with me now... A P P L E S and O R A N G E S

 

 
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Posted: #12
This one will be another   EAGLES in a route. Cards just dont matchup.  You'll see
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by breakem:

Is there anyway this line will jump to +4 before mid-week? I seriously doubt it,if so,I don't think it will last for long. I think by Friday the line will settle at Philly -3 with 20-25% juice. 


Small money will continue to come in on Philly all week.  Big money will wait until the last minute at drop it on AZ.  For the Atlanta game, it was the day of the game when the big money came in and pushed Arizona to -2 right before game time from a Pk earlier.  The same will happen here I think...

 
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Posted: #14
Your confused my friend, alot of Sharp Money comes in as soon as a line is released and you better believe that at -3 110 or 115....big money drove the line to where its at right now......
 
 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by nflpicker14:

This one will be another   EAGLES in a route. Cards just dont matchup.  You'll see

 

Oh, the old Cards don't match up capping again.... Philly backers will spend the rest of their lifetime chasing for that "ring"...ask Kurt how does it feel to wear one or was it 2?

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:

Your confused my friend, alot of Sharp Money comes in as soon as a line is released and you better believe that at -3 110 or 115....big money drove the line to where its at right now......
 
 

Why do most ppl think early $$$$ is always sharp money? Could it be there's a public feeding frenzy after the big win on Sunday night vs. Pitt and now a favorite against a Baltimore team that have been outgained on yardage in every game but still manage to win?

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #17
I think sharps sometimes sit back and wait for the feeding frenzy to end.......than goes in for the kill before kickoff. That's where you get the most VALUE now days.....no applause please.
 
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Posted: #18
Could it be there's a public feeding frenzy after the big win on Sunday night vs. Pitt
 
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should be "big win on Sunday night vs. SD.....
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:

Your confused my friend, alot of Sharp Money comes in as soon as a line is released and you better believe that at -3 110 or 115....big money drove the line to where its at right now......
 
 

Big money does not take more than a day to move the line.  Small money has been coming in on the Eagles.  If big money came in on the Eagles right away, Vegas would have not waited to move the line from -3 to -3.5.  Vegas let that line sit at -3 (-130) juice for a while.  What, you think the big money was placed on (-130) juice..? 

We will see when the line moves back for the Dog the day before or day of the game...

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by texancapper:

I think sharps sometimes sit back and wait for the feeding frenzy to end.......than goes in for the kill before kickoff. That's where you get the most VALUE now days.....no applause please.

  Thank you capper...  This is exactly how the Atlanta game line played out...  Atlanta was bet on all week and and was the favorite at -2, then the day of the game, big money came in on Arizona and at game time, AZ was at -2.

Same thing in this game... 

 
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Posted: #21
Liked your picks this season Talent, but I feel like your judgement might be a little clouded here.  I just think that you are putting too much into the crowd being a factor.  Give me some more reasons to take Zona here.
 
 
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Posted: #22
Give me some more reasons to take Zona here.
 
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Kurt Warner = 2 superbowls
McNabb = 0
 
 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by texancapper:

Why do most ppl think early $$$$ is always sharp money? Could it be there's a public feeding frenzy after the big win on Sunday night vs. Pitt and now a favorite against a Baltimore team that have been outgained on yardage in every game but still manage to win?

 

 

 

No im just saying Big Money doesnt always just wait until the last minute to bet a game.  It goes both ways and just about evenly, if there is a soft line, they will bang it.

Sometimes no matter what Vegas does, it will result in the same thing.  Vegas could have made Philly -6 and the exact same action would be on both teams. 

On top of that, sometimes The Public and The Sharps on the same side.  Vegas is screwed here.  They will get some back with the Fraud sharps who try to get the Cards at +3.5 and +4, but the line will never go back to 3. 

I cant believe this guy said small money took the line off 3.  Do you know how much money has to be wagered on a team to move the line off of 3.  Its not like any other number, its the most sacred number to the bookmakers.  Go back to the regular season and find 1 game where by mid-day Monday a line moved off of 3.  You wont find one.  Or maybe just 1.

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Slingzz:

I cant believe this guy said small money took the line off 3.  Do you know how much money has to be wagered on a team to move the line off of 3.

 

Please do not preach key numbers here...

You are very simple minded if you think that enough small money could not move a number off of or to a key number...

Enough small money could and has moved the line off of or to a key number...

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