NFC Championship Game

my fault, you are correct

Actually this is wrong.  This season, Houston won 40-20 against Arizona in week 15, then in week 16  beat Raiders at home 23-21.

SAC 

Not sure many want to see Seattle in the Superbowl over LA. Obviously this is going to be a boring and low scoring superbowl. Lets atleast see 1 Quality QB. I believe Stafford is Top Teir QB. He should get another chance at the title and then retire like his good Friend Clayton Kershaw. This extremely difficult road playoff journey would put him with the all-time greats. Lets hope the NFL does the correct thing and gets him in the Title game for all he has accomplished. A bills/rams Superbowl would have been EPIC. Atleast give us Stafford. 

Darnold against Stidum or Maye? Stafford is the only real Narrative for a decent Superbowl. Lets hope the calls go the way of the Rams.

@KTriple

 If the NFL truly decides these games, then we would of gotten "EPIC" with Bills vs Rams. As you alluded to.

We won't get that.

Just handicap the game the best you can. That's what I do. I can't let thoughts like "what the league wants", or "sharps are on a certain side, so I better tag along" get in my way.

Ofcourse I don't ignore that stuff completely. I look into it and try to get a grasp of the entire betting market landscape. 

Good Luck 

Terrible spot!  Just ask the most recent third playoff road game team Washington last year.  Philly beat them 55-23 in Conference Championship as 6 point dogs.  Washington lost the turnover battle 0-4.  Philly had no extra rest and Washington played all 3 games in eastern time zone.  Rams spot is way worse.

Great stuff.  I think you are on the right side.

The 2007 Patriots didn't cover their 31-20 Divisional Round win over the Jaguars, nor their 21-12 AFC Championship game win over the Chargers. Then the oddsmakers had them laying a dozen points or so to the Giants and they famously lost the Super Bowl 17-14.

And after Week 3, things got even worse for teams that just played the Bears as they went 1-12 and 3-10 ATS the rest of the season. After Week 9, they went 0-9 and 2-7 ATS. The Giants covered by the hook in a 27-20 home loss to the Packers, and the Browns covered as 10.5-point dogs in a 23-20 home loss to the Bills when the Bills were sky high off of their great second half comeback in New England the previous Sunday.

Now the Rams are in this situation, but it's even worse. They played overtime for 11:41 last Sunday night, so they got beat up by the Bears for 72 minutes instead of the sixty all the other Bears' opponents endured. And it all happened in the freezing cold. AND the Rams have had one less day to prepare for today's title game!

I don't understand how Rams backers today think their team is going to overcome this atrocious situational spot. I suppose many of them don't know about the "after the Bears" season long trend, but everyone knows the Rams played in a lengthy overtime last week, and playoff road teams off a playoff OT win are terrible investments, and I expect matters to really get complicated for the worn out Rams tonight in the second half.

@MrBator

@MrBator

Not to mention the Rams have been on the road 5 of the last 6 weeks, traveling nearly 15k miles and changing time zones in the process:

Week 16: @ Seattle (37-38 OT Loss)

Week 17: @ Atlanta (24-27 Loss)

Week 18: Home vs Arizona (37-20 Win)

Wild Card: @ Carolina (34-31 Win)

Divisional: @ Chicago (20-17 OT Win)

Conference Champ: @ Seattle (?)

No one wants to bet Darnold in a high leverage spot like this. But if the Rams' legs give the way they ought to, Sam won't have to do much more than hand the ball off in this one. 

If you're grabbing Seattle, be sure to grab some alternates too. 

YTD 31-16-6 (+18.63)

Seahawks -2.5(-115) *1.25/1.09

Seahawks -3(+105) *.75/.79

Patriots@Broncos 1H U21.5(-108) *.75/.69

Broncos TT U19.5(-115) *1.00/.87

Broncos TT U17.5(+110) *.30/.33

I may add to Seahawks in some sort of way. I'll wait out some lines I guess. Pissed that I'm seeing Seahawks -2.5(-105), wish I had that instead of -115. But I'm completely comfortable as lines have moved against me all year long.

Good Luck everyone. 

@MrBator

 You got me to look at more spot specific games for the "after Bears" trend.

The Packers in week 16 went into OT vs the Bears. In the following game they lost 24-41 vs the Ravens.

It was the Tyler Huntley vs Malik Willis game. They both played awesome games, especially Willis. So I don't want to hear any "Jordan Love was out" excuses. 

Adding:

Seahawks -6.5(+190) *.25/.48

5-1 +3.52 units 

See you in 2 weeks 

nice work 

Congratulations.

Thanks guys. It's been a blessed year betting on the NFL this year.

I've had years that were the complete opposite. 

Great work undermysac! Thank you for sharing your outstanding analysis every week. 

So... What are you thinking for LX??

It's a little early yet, but I do have some concerns actually about the Seahawks defense, who doesn't change It's colors for anyone. Given that Josh McDaniels will have 2 weeks to prepare a gameplan will make this game interesting. 

Although, the Seahawks D thrives in the redzone, and on 3rd downs. That's a tough code to crack.

The Patriots defensive unit will be the most underrated unit coming into this game.

I have the upmost respect for both teams. Backing both of em all year has been a good investment.