NFC Championship Game

2007 Giants played on Road 4 of their last 5 games before playing in SB & 6 Road of their last 8 games before SB, & then beat the Patriots in SB....wp\on 3 straight Road in playoffs.

Packers were on the Road 5 of their last 7 games & 7 of their last 10 games entering SB in 2010 & winning it all....won 3 straight Road in playoffs.

2020 Buccaneers played 5 of their last 6 games before playing & winning the SB...won 3 straight Road in playoffs.

I went back to 1980 & only found these 3 teams to play 3 Road games in playoffs & win them all before entering the SB.

Thanks for all the info.

Since 1980, how many teams lost the conference championship when it was a 3rd straight road game?

So Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady were the only ones to overcome this spot in the last 45 years.

Great record and write up. Rams narrowly won their last 2 games and the travel and rest could be a factor. The line is 2.5 because the Rams should have beaten the Seahawks last time they played as the Rams blew a nice lead and the Seahawks gamble going for 2 points to end the game paid off . Ever since that game they seem to have lost a step. Just an observation , they still are a great team. 
I think this game will rest on Seahawk QB Darnold and I’m not sold him just yet but gun to my head I think the rested Hawks pull out a tough one. 

I went back to the 1978 to see what I can find, thats the year the wildcard games were added, but only two wildcard games were played until 1990 when it went to 4 wildcard games.

1978, the Oilers had 4 of last 5 games on Road before championship game, with their 3rd Road game entering the CG, they lost the CG SU&ATS as a dog.

1982 (strike year, each team played 9 regular season games) The Jets played 5 straight Road games before losing in the CG as a dog.

1985, Patriots were on their 3rd Road game entering the CG & won as a dog SU&ATS.

1995, Colts on their 3rd Road game entering CG, & lost SU, but covered as +11.5 dog.

1996, Jaguars on their 3rd Road game entering CG, lost SU&ATS as a dog.

2005, Panthers on their 4th straight Road game after winning the past 3, lost in the CG as a dog SU&ATS.

2005, Steelers won 3 straight Road playoff games & then won the SB SU&ATS (I missed this one, add it to the 3 others, Gbay, Giants & Tampa)

2008, Ravens on their 3rd Road game entering the CG, they lost SU&ATS as a dog.

2008, Eagles on their 3rd Road game entering the CG, lost SU&ATS as a Road fav.

2009, Jets on their 3rd Road game entering the CG, lost SU&ATS as a dog.

2010, Jets on their 3rd Road game entering the CG, lost SU&ATS as a dog.

2013 49ers on their 4th Road game entering the CG, lost SU&ATS as a dog. (They were a Road fav in 1st playoff game & won SU but pushed on spread, then were a Road fav again in the 2nd playoff game & won & covered, but then lost in 3rd playoff game as a dog).

2019 Titans on their 4th Road game entering the CG, lost SU&ATS as a dog

2024 Skins on their 4th Road game entering the CG, lost SU&ATS as a dog

2025, Rams on their 3rd Road game entering the CG?? What will happen.....

I think Charbonnet being out actually helps Seattle because Walker will be hyped to be the solo feature back on the big stage.....he should get some work in the passing game too.....

I think McVay is a very good coach, but I question his decision making in big games....

Nacua has been great, but something is wrong with Adams ....just hasn't had the spark since his injury.....

Williams/Corum are decent, but nothing you can't prepare for.....

Rams short week after a bitter cold OT road game definitely is worth noting.....these guys are now 5 months and 20 games in....it takes a toll.....

I dont think this will be a blowout and could go either way if we get great Stafford or the old Darnold... if we get the good version of both I lean Seattle due to HFA, rest & defense....

GL sir

@SecretAgentMan1

 Thanks, appreciate it 

@TRAIN69

 Davante Adams got banged up on "the catch" that was ruled down by conact where he got stripped by Stevenson. 

It looked like he was evaluated for a concussion. He later came back in the game and didn't do anything else.

This one I'll need some sdql help. If anyone has the time.

@undermysac

These are excellent stats, good find. Agree that Rams will be beat down, third game on the road, and a physical OT win. It’s hard to bet against Stafford and company, but if anyone is going to do it it is their divisional rivals the Seahawks and a McDonald Defense.

@undermysac

 Yep this is a 3pt game no matter how you spin it. The right side will win both SU and ATS. no other way. And Definitely no middling. I do this Sea wins though.

Seattle/New England ML parlay pays 10/13.

With the away fav spot, books are telling bettors the Pats will take care of business in Denver. Broncos could pull off a miracle, but Maye vs. Stidham is no comparison at QB. That's what it will take, a miracle for Denver to win. If you like the Hawks -2.5, you should like them even better at a pick, and plus money.

Worth a gander,

RT2

I saw on you tube teams on their 3rd straight road playoff game cover 28%.

Teams with more time between games 21-7 I think but not sure if SU or ATS not sure it matters as -2.5 a win is high probability  of a cover.

Everything i saw favors Seahawks as far as those type trends.

It's straight up. I posted that trend in post #19

Stumbled onto another one.

Teams who have the rest disadvantage, and played OT in the previous game are 1-8 SU.

The only winning team in that trend were the 2006 Bears, who beat the Saints. The outlier though is that they were at home.

I remember that game, it was snowing a bit and fairly cold vs the dome team.

Then they lost the SB vs the Colts cause Rex Grossman fuckin sucked, and Tony Parrish blew a coverage on the Colts first TD. Something about color coded arm bands they used for coverage, and he had the colors mixed up

Thanks for taking the time and effort to provide these facts for your fans, but the comparative margins over the last 5 games do not work as a handicapping technique.  Here is a query featuring a large gap:

PO = 1 and tA(margin, N = 5) - oA(margin, N = 5) > 8.2

SU:  61-36-1 (3.7,62.9%)

ATS:  49-46-3 (0.1,51.6%) avg line = -3.65

In the playoffs, when a team's average margin is at least 8.2 points greater than their opponent's over the last 5 game they cover 51.6% of the large sample size of 98 games.  Favorites cover 50.0% and Home Favorites cover 54.0%, but the avg line for those HF's is -7.35.  Let's see how small HF's (-1 to -4 points) do:

PO = 1 and tA(margin, N = 5) - oA(margin, N = 5) > 8.2 and HF and line > -4.2

SU:  5-5 (1.9,50.0%)

ATS:  3-6-1 (-1.0,33.3%) avg line = -3.0

I certainly wouldn't take LAR based on a 3-6-1 query; that sample size is meaningless.

Joe Fortenbaugh likes SEA.  His narrative is that LAR played two tough, close games and the last one went overtime.  SEA had a bye followed by a cakewalk.  Advantage SEA.

Good luck to you and your many tailers.  Your excellent season inspires a lot of confidence.

Home teams that scored 40 or more previous this season are 0-6 ATS the following week if they are at Home again. It did carry over to the playoffs, the Jaguars won 41-7 week 18 at Home & then lost to the Bills in the wildcard game. This angle is a go against Seattle ATS this week, they won 41-6 at Home last week....small sample size but its for this season.

Thx for posting your excellent content. One thing we r all overlooking...is more officiating " enigma" to put it nicely.  And this randomness ,imo, certainly could throw a wrench in everything. I favor Sea also but apparently Circa majority handle on Rams.  And coming off the key 3 gives me pause. 

@DogbiteWilliams

 Thanks for the info and thoughts.

"Joe Fortenbaugh likes SEA. His narrative is that LAR played two tough, close games and the last one went overtime. SEA had a bye followed by a cakewalk. Advantage SEA."

This is where my handicap began pretty much when I started the thread. The lack of rest, multiple road games, b2b close games, OT etc...it just can't be a good spot.

Since you run sdql, can you find some results for...

When a team wins but does not cover in consecutive playoff games, how do they do in the following game?

At this point it doesn't really matter, my bets are already in, it's just bugging me that I haven't seen anything yet. My gut tells me it hasn't happened before.

Thanks in advance. 

This is another query that even an SDQL novice would have a good chance at guessing:

PO = 1 and p:W and p:ATSL and pp:W and pp:ATSL

SU:  5-7 (2.7,41.7%)

ATS:  4-7-1 (-1.3,36.4%)

In the playoffs, teams that win 2 straight games while failing to cover them both are just 4-7-1 ATS in the next game.  Once again, that is a small sample size which provides no confidence, and neither does that average ATS margin of -1.3 points.

LAR are an Away Dog, and that makes a big difference, but an even smaller sample size:

PO = 1 and p:W and p:ATSL and pp:W and pp:ATSL and AD

SU:  1-2 (2.8,33.3%)

ATS:  3-0 (8.5,100.0%)

I would certainly lean to LAR (that 8.5 avg ATS margin is nice), but I would only use this Munchkin query to bolster some other queries, methods or techniques.

Good luck.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Thank you very much sir. On the 2nd smaller query, does it show you the spreads for those 3-0 ats games?

That's all I would like to know, thanks again 

@undermysac

Go to https://gimmethedog.com/NFL and copy and paste the AD query from Comment #46.  The table lists all three games.

Remember, one query each from Seasons 2002, 2006 and 2022 does not exactly paint a definitive picture.

Good luck.

That should be "one query response each".  Sorry about that.

this is a good one indeed but I always like to bet against a streak.  Just like Purdy was 4-0 playing in Seattle