Ill even throw out Atlanta's home game with TB since that game was lets say "Meaningless" and add the next game that would be in that home series :--> Dallas WK 9
*that would be in that 4 game home series
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Ill even throw out Atlanta's home game with TB since that game was lets say "Meaningless" and add the next game that would be in that home series :--> Dallas WK 9
sizer Vegas has set the bait and Falcons backers have bitten. yes there is value in the Falcons line but 49ers are not being denied against a team like Atlanta. 49ers are going to win. Falcons couldn't have a worse matchup. a defence that can't pressure the QB means CK won't be under pressure all day. Abraham not going to be 100%.
San Fran solid run D and besides last week Turner has been a average this season. There is a strong chance the 49ers D shuts down the Falcons run and if that happens Matt R will make mistakes. Sometimes you ignore trends, regular season records, value, home records and you focus on JUST the matchup. 49ers are the better team, better coach, have conference experience from last year. 49ers are one of my fav plays this year. I have already unloaded on the ML and if I get the ML for a good price in running I will unload on the ML again...
Forget what the line should be. Focus on Steve Martin and Matt Ryan in the playoffs. 1-4. Their one playoff win was against a crap road team who have been traveling all over the country and came out cold! If seahawks come rested to that game they win. Atlanta is the most over rated first seed ever and that's saying something cause most don't rate them.
can they cover? Yeah. because if the line value if they get turnovers and capitialise then yes this is sports anything is possible. But I have a sTRONG opinion San Fran wins ML. therefore how can I back the value? I think San Fran wins by between 7 and 10.
I've been seen it in millions I threads. There is no value in a losing slip....Atlanta has let down people over and over. last week they did not cover. The line went off -3 at kickoff. they probably won't cover here...
why do people back a team that always never shows? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. backing Atlanta and expecting to deliver in the playoffs is a ridiculous way to lose hard earned money....WATCH...
Mack, took the words right out of my mouth! There's a hoax allright, Atlanta -backers thinking the 4 will be enough. SF to the SB it's just that simple!
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Quote Originally Posted by Mack05:
sizer Vegas has set the bait and Falcons backers have bitten. yes there is value in the Falcons line but 49ers are not being denied against a team like Atlanta. 49ers are going to win. Falcons couldn't have a worse matchup. a defence that can't pressure the QB means CK won't be under pressure all day. Abraham not going to be 100%.
San Fran solid run D and besides last week Turner has been a average this season. There is a strong chance the 49ers D shuts down the Falcons run and if that happens Matt R will make mistakes. Sometimes you ignore trends, regular season records, value, home records and you focus on JUST the matchup. 49ers are the better team, better coach, have conference experience from last year. 49ers are one of my fav plays this year. I have already unloaded on the ML and if I get the ML for a good price in running I will unload on the ML again...
Forget what the line should be. Focus on Steve Martin and Matt Ryan in the playoffs. 1-4. Their one playoff win was against a crap road team who have been traveling all over the country and came out cold! If seahawks come rested to that game they win. Atlanta is the most over rated first seed ever and that's saying something cause most don't rate them.
can they cover? Yeah. because if the line value if they get turnovers and capitialise then yes this is sports anything is possible. But I have a sTRONG opinion San Fran wins ML. therefore how can I back the value? I think San Fran wins by between 7 and 10.
I've been seen it in millions I threads. There is no value in a losing slip....Atlanta has let down people over and over. last week they did not cover. The line went off -3 at kickoff. they probably won't cover here...
why do people back a team that always never shows? The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. backing Atlanta and expecting to deliver in the playoffs is a ridiculous way to lose hard earned money....WATCH...
Mack, took the words right out of my mouth! There's a hoax allright, Atlanta -backers thinking the 4 will be enough. SF to the SB it's just that simple!
In this scenario, even with the SF @Seattle ( 11-42 ) game dismissed. SF is only 1.5 points better than Atl if they were to play @ a neutral site. Not even a FG. This modified scenario still shows Atlanta with a touchdown (7)advantagein points without even taking a snap. (26.5 +4 HFpoints = 30.5 plus a 4 point handicap( line) giving Atlanta a 34.5 total home rating before the 2 teams even walk onto the field. mmmmmm.... and everyone thinks SF has the advantage in this game giving Atlanta +3 + 3.5 +4, +4.5 +5 pts @ home in the dome with a good QB/WR tandem/ dual threat running attack and a 16 pppg defense, not to mention a 33-7 SU home record since 2008. Red flags all over the place in this one boys.
Atlantas ave Off -> 23
ave defense------> 16
Atlanta is beating their a.o.p.r--> 23 by 3.5 pppg =26.5
In this scenario, even with the SF @Seattle ( 11-42 ) game dismissed. SF is only 1.5 points better than Atl if they were to play @ a neutral site. Not even a FG. This modified scenario still shows Atlanta with a touchdown (7)advantagein points without even taking a snap. (26.5 +4 HFpoints = 30.5 plus a 4 point handicap( line) giving Atlanta a 34.5 total home rating before the 2 teams even walk onto the field. mmmmmm.... and everyone thinks SF has the advantage in this game giving Atlanta +3 + 3.5 +4, +4.5 +5 pts @ home in the dome with a good QB/WR tandem/ dual threat running attack and a 16 pppg defense, not to mention a 33-7 SU home record since 2008. Red flags all over the place in this one boys.
Atlantas ave Off -> 23
ave defense------> 16
Atlanta is beating their a.o.p.r--> 23 by 3.5 pppg =26.5
Wizerguy - got mad respect for you and your capping, but I think we're just going to agree to disagree on this one.
I do think everyone is focusing on kaepernick for the niners, but ill be shocked if harbaugh doesn't grind the game out with gore. I'm not saying this game is a blowout by any means, but I just don't think matches up well with the niners at all.
Good news is we're all gonna find out the answer one way or the other real soon.
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Wizerguy - got mad respect for you and your capping, but I think we're just going to agree to disagree on this one.
I do think everyone is focusing on kaepernick for the niners, but ill be shocked if harbaugh doesn't grind the game out with gore. I'm not saying this game is a blowout by any means, but I just don't think matches up well with the niners at all.
Good news is we're all gonna find out the answer one way or the other real soon.
Wizerguy - got mad respect for you and your capping, but I think we're just going to agree to disagree on this one.
I do think everyone is focusing on kaepernick for the niners, but ill be shocked if harbaugh doesn't grind the game out with gore. I'm not saying this game is a blowout by any means, but I just don't think matches up well with the niners at all.
Good news is we're all gonna find out the answer one way or the other real soon.
Thanks Big
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:
Wizerguy - got mad respect for you and your capping, but I think we're just going to agree to disagree on this one.
I do think everyone is focusing on kaepernick for the niners, but ill be shocked if harbaugh doesn't grind the game out with gore. I'm not saying this game is a blowout by any means, but I just don't think matches up well with the niners at all.
Good news is we're all gonna find out the answer one way or the other real soon.
In this scenario, even with the SF @Seattle ( 11-42 ) game dismissed. SF is only 1.5 points better than Atl if they were to play @ a neutral site. Not even a FG. This modified scenario still shows Atlanta with a touchdown (7)advantagein points without even taking a snap. (26.5 +4 HFpoints = 30.5 plus a 4 point handicap( line) giving Atlanta a 34.5 total home rating before the 2 teams even walk onto the field. mmmmmm.... and everyone thinks SF has the advantage in this game giving Atlanta +3 + 3.5 +4, +4.5 +5 pts @ home in the dome with a good QB/WR tandem/ dual threat running attack and a 16 pppg defense, not to mention a 33-7 SU home record since 2008. Red flags all over the place in this one boys.
Atlantas ave Off -> 23
ave defense------> 16
Atlanta is beating their a.o.p.r--> 23 by 3.5 pppg =26.5
SF road rating---> 27.5 (Difference +7 adv. Atlanta)
Atl total H.rating--> 34.5
Off -Def
Atl. 23 -16
SFran. 20-15
Predicted Score
18-16 Atlanta +4.5
Wizer, That and $7.00 will buy you a cup of Java at Starbucks. All those #s mean squat when it comes down to matchups between Conference playoff teams. The O/U between SF and Atl is 1-6 ATS, doesn't mean the Under is the play. Betcha thought GB was gonna cover the 3 at SF too didn't ya! SF has a ton of talent and a defense that is just dying to force Ryan into some careless throws, lets face it he doesn't have a great track record in the post-season, how bout those stats!
In this scenario, even with the SF @Seattle ( 11-42 ) game dismissed. SF is only 1.5 points better than Atl if they were to play @ a neutral site. Not even a FG. This modified scenario still shows Atlanta with a touchdown (7)advantagein points without even taking a snap. (26.5 +4 HFpoints = 30.5 plus a 4 point handicap( line) giving Atlanta a 34.5 total home rating before the 2 teams even walk onto the field. mmmmmm.... and everyone thinks SF has the advantage in this game giving Atlanta +3 + 3.5 +4, +4.5 +5 pts @ home in the dome with a good QB/WR tandem/ dual threat running attack and a 16 pppg defense, not to mention a 33-7 SU home record since 2008. Red flags all over the place in this one boys.
Atlantas ave Off -> 23
ave defense------> 16
Atlanta is beating their a.o.p.r--> 23 by 3.5 pppg =26.5
SF road rating---> 27.5 (Difference +7 adv. Atlanta)
Atl total H.rating--> 34.5
Off -Def
Atl. 23 -16
SFran. 20-15
Predicted Score
18-16 Atlanta +4.5
Wizer, That and $7.00 will buy you a cup of Java at Starbucks. All those #s mean squat when it comes down to matchups between Conference playoff teams. The O/U between SF and Atl is 1-6 ATS, doesn't mean the Under is the play. Betcha thought GB was gonna cover the 3 at SF too didn't ya! SF has a ton of talent and a defense that is just dying to force Ryan into some careless throws, lets face it he doesn't have a great track record in the post-season, how bout those stats!
Throw the stats out loosers only know how to lose...Atlanta is this biggest looser in pro sports..The tried to lose last week..this week they get their looser title game... A Town is Joke Town, fkin Jokessssss
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Throw the stats out loosers only know how to lose...Atlanta is this biggest looser in pro sports..The tried to lose last week..this week they get their looser title game... A Town is Joke Town, fkin Jokessssss
Throw the stats out loosers only know how to lose...Atlanta is this biggest looser in pro sports..The tried to lose last week..this week they get their looser title game... A Town is Joke Town, fkin Jokessssss
I'm sorry but really?? c'mon man
LOSER.
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Quote Originally Posted by originator:
Throw the stats out loosers only know how to lose...Atlanta is this biggest looser in pro sports..The tried to lose last week..this week they get their looser title game... A Town is Joke Town, fkin Jokessssss
haha go ahead and put ur money on a team that doesnt know how to win..They dont have Winning in their DNA man, u seen it last week..u can x and o stat everything u want, but this team just doesnt have it...Atleast Atlanta has the better coaching staff.. id thake nolan over Jim anyday .. Waite, that sounded very stupid right? How do u think it sounds when people say Atlanta is going to win???
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Quote Originally Posted by CaptFear43:
I'm sorry but really?? c'mon man
LOSER.
haha go ahead and put ur money on a team that doesnt know how to win..They dont have Winning in their DNA man, u seen it last week..u can x and o stat everything u want, but this team just doesnt have it...Atleast Atlanta has the better coaching staff.. id thake nolan over Jim anyday .. Waite, that sounded very stupid right? How do u think it sounds when people say Atlanta is going to win???
This 9ers will be focused for 60 minutes. And hungry. They remember how last years home championship loss felt. Its not happening this year. Absolutely not. Determination cant be measured by any of your goofy methods.
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This 9ers will be focused for 60 minutes. And hungry. They remember how last years home championship loss felt. Its not happening this year. Absolutely not. Determination cant be measured by any of your goofy methods.
WG your the man, amazing write up and I love the way you compute these numbers. If you would mind accepting my friend request, I have 2-3 questions for you as I would enjoy incorperating some of these formulas to my handicapping arsenal. BOL this weekend and thanks for the detailed write up.
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WG your the man, amazing write up and I love the way you compute these numbers. If you would mind accepting my friend request, I have 2-3 questions for you as I would enjoy incorperating some of these formulas to my handicapping arsenal. BOL this weekend and thanks for the detailed write up.
Yes, SF did look awesome in NOrleans against a better offense than Atlanta's. However, NOrleans didn't have a better defense than Atlanta's and that's where the key of this game will be.. on.Defense. SF's 27 pppg rd defense vs Atlanta's 17 pppg home defense... big difference than New Orleans 28 pppg home defense
Notice SF won with turnovers in the NO game 38-28 ( deceiving final). SF scored 21 points off NO turnovers when brees gave the game away and the NO defense couldn't stop the SF offense from converting the miscues into points. ( true points 17) SF gave up a TD on defense when the defense was off the field..hence the 21. So they actually would have lost by 4. 17-21 Can they repeat the same magic @ Atlanta. Also won off turnovers in the NE game ( another deceiving final). Can they win with smoke and mirrors in this game.
Seattle and St. Louis are bad matchups for S.Fran.? I guess they were this year...they lost both games with the SF defense surrendering 30 ppg. vs those 2 clubs ..on the road ( hint). Whats that telling you.? That they play good defense on the road.? They gave up 31 to Green bay @ home. The Giants held GB to 10 how come SF couldn't do that.
You're not looking at the big picture home/road dichtonomy as explained in the above math model my friend. You need to evaluate the odds makers line and compare team A's road performance in their last 4 ( recent road form) game series with team B's home performance in their last 4 ( recent home game series). Not how a team did vs 2 of their division rivals on the road and how they dont match up well with them. SF has matched up well @ home with these 2 clubs for the past decade. Its only a tough match up for SF because they just don't match up with any team on the road unless they convert turnovers into points or play teams like Arizona and the Jets
You find it amazing that Falcon backers are ignoring their recent playoff record.??? I'm not ignoring their recent playoff record
Their recent playoff record to me is 1-0. Everything else is irrelevant... and when I finish my Atlanta write-up you will also know that last year and the year before and the year before that, has no bearing whatsoever on this game.
you want to talk about pure points yet you dismissed the pick 6 to start the game. pure points? 49ers are up 21, packers score garbage td. technically, packers only had 17 pure points on offense. you added the pick 6 to start the game and added the late garbage td with less than a minute remaining with the 49ers up 21. good job. might want to relook every game to get the TRUE numbers
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
3 is good mack
Yes, SF did look awesome in NOrleans against a better offense than Atlanta's. However, NOrleans didn't have a better defense than Atlanta's and that's where the key of this game will be.. on.Defense. SF's 27 pppg rd defense vs Atlanta's 17 pppg home defense... big difference than New Orleans 28 pppg home defense
Notice SF won with turnovers in the NO game 38-28 ( deceiving final). SF scored 21 points off NO turnovers when brees gave the game away and the NO defense couldn't stop the SF offense from converting the miscues into points. ( true points 17) SF gave up a TD on defense when the defense was off the field..hence the 21. So they actually would have lost by 4. 17-21 Can they repeat the same magic @ Atlanta. Also won off turnovers in the NE game ( another deceiving final). Can they win with smoke and mirrors in this game.
Seattle and St. Louis are bad matchups for S.Fran.? I guess they were this year...they lost both games with the SF defense surrendering 30 ppg. vs those 2 clubs ..on the road ( hint). Whats that telling you.? That they play good defense on the road.? They gave up 31 to Green bay @ home. The Giants held GB to 10 how come SF couldn't do that.
You're not looking at the big picture home/road dichtonomy as explained in the above math model my friend. You need to evaluate the odds makers line and compare team A's road performance in their last 4 ( recent road form) game series with team B's home performance in their last 4 ( recent home game series). Not how a team did vs 2 of their division rivals on the road and how they dont match up well with them. SF has matched up well @ home with these 2 clubs for the past decade. Its only a tough match up for SF because they just don't match up with any team on the road unless they convert turnovers into points or play teams like Arizona and the Jets
You find it amazing that Falcon backers are ignoring their recent playoff record.??? I'm not ignoring their recent playoff record
Their recent playoff record to me is 1-0. Everything else is irrelevant... and when I finish my Atlanta write-up you will also know that last year and the year before and the year before that, has no bearing whatsoever on this game.
you want to talk about pure points yet you dismissed the pick 6 to start the game. pure points? 49ers are up 21, packers score garbage td. technically, packers only had 17 pure points on offense. you added the pick 6 to start the game and added the late garbage td with less than a minute remaining with the 49ers up 21. good job. might want to relook every game to get the TRUE numbers
you want to talk about pure points yet you dismissed the pick 6 to start the game. pure points? 49ers are up 21, packers score garbage td. technically, packers only had 17 pure points on offense. you added the pick 6 to start the game and added the late garbage td with less than a minute remaining with the 49ers up 21. good job. might want to relook every game to get the TRUE numbers
The pick 6 points are not true points because they weren't generated by the offense. They were handed the 7 points on a silver platter.
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Quote Originally Posted by dgnowsf:
you want to talk about pure points yet you dismissed the pick 6 to start the game. pure points? 49ers are up 21, packers score garbage td. technically, packers only had 17 pure points on offense. you added the pick 6 to start the game and added the late garbage td with less than a minute remaining with the 49ers up 21. good job. might want to relook every game to get the TRUE numbers
The pick 6 points are not true points because they weren't generated by the offense. They were handed the 7 points on a silver platter.
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