** NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME **

 Yes, SF did look awesome in NOrleans against a better offense  than Atlanta's. However, NOrleans didn't have a better defense than Atlanta's and that's where the key of this game will be.. on.Defense.  SF's 27 pppg rd defense vs Atlanta's 17 pppg home defense... big difference than New Orleans 28 pppg home defense

Notice SF won with turnovers in the NO  game 38-28 ( deceiving final). SF scored 21 points off NO turnovers when brees gave the game away and the NO defense couldn't stop the SF offense from converting the miscues into points. ( true points 17) SF gave up a TD on defense when the defense was off the field..hence the 21. So they actually would have lost by 4. 17-21 Can they repeat the same magic @ Atlanta. Also won off turnovers in the NE game ( another deceiving final). Can they win with smoke and mirrors in this game.  

  Seattle and St. Louis are bad matchups for S.Fran.? I guess they were this year...they lost both games with the SF defense surrendering 30 ppg. vs those 2 clubs ..on the road ( hint). Whats that telling you.? That they play good defense on the road.? They gave up 31 to Green bay @ home. The Giants held GB to 10 how come SF couldn't do that. 

You're not looking at the big picture home/road dichtonomy as explained in the above math model my friend. You need to evaluate the odds makers line and  compare team A's road performance in  their last 4 ( recent  road form) game series with team B's home performance in their last 4  ( recent home game series). Not how a team did vs 2 of their division rivals on the road and how they dont match up well with them. SF has matched up well @ home with these 2 clubs for the past decade. Its only a tough match up for SF because they just don't match up with any team on the road unless they convert turnovers into points or play teams like Arizona and the Jets

You find it amazing that Falcon backers are ignoring their recent playoff record.??? I'm not ignoring their recent playoff record

Their recent playoff record to me is 1-0.  Everything else is irrelevant... and when I finish my Atlanta write-up you will also know  that last year and the year before and the year before that,  has no bearing whatsoever on this game. 

If San Fran wins then it's just a case of beating back to back Harbaughs hahaha. Seriously though first Super Bowl for CK and while he may come out as a superstar hard to back against Brady and co with their experience....Thoughts? 

regardless of who they play in the SB, i think its how the ball bounces. they had 2 tough outtings on 2 great catches by tyree and manningham the past 2 tries

First of Mack, I would like to thank you for being very  respectful with stating your case  in a respectful manor and hearing me out on my thoughts on the Atlanta +4.5. My  negative units. would have some scratching their heads as to why such a large play and bashing me for it. Bad year is all I can say. Greed/ bad money management, family distractions ie deaths etc. Just wasn't a good combination this year.  Some guys come in here and the first thing they do is bash me because of the negative units listed. I post my plays and units win or lose. Most of the veterans around here know I've had some  very profitable seasons. Theres always next year to make up for it. So thanks for being a stand up guy

As far as New England, yes they could win it all and +110 is little value . at this point I want Baltimore to beat them so its not a play I would wager on. However, GL in whatever you decide to do my friend

Niner. I only look at the last 4 games SF has played on the road. I can understand your reasoning. However, i'm looking for recent form or how a team has performed on the road in their most recent road games..I understand it was a bad spot for them @ Seattle. Was it a bad spot for them @ Stl. Playing in domes this year isnt their forte.Their defense is giving up points into the endzone 30 points per game last 4 games overall and 27 pppg last 4 on the road. Thats not a good defense buddy. Look into the NE game and the NO game. If it wasn't for turnovers they wouldn't have won those games.27-34 @ NE and 17-21 @ NOrleans That's how it goes . You cant cap turnovers. However you can go back and charge the offense with points off turnovers in previous games and remove them form the final score. It gives a better indication as to what the offensive output really is. Raw points  

Back in a moment 

San Francisco  L 4 road opponents/ PP Final/ Opp P.R.

Seattle  11-42        27.5

NEng     27-34      30.5

St louis   14-9       19.5

              69-106     24

69 -106 =  - 37  add 3pts for ea. road game.The reason we add 3pts for ea. road gm vs subtract ( atl) is because SF was at a 3pt disadvantage for ea. game.  Atlanta had the adv. of 3pts for ea. gm because they had the HFA ea time 

(- 37 +12 = - 25)  - 25 div by 4 gms = - 6.25 or - 6

SF's a.o.p.r.--->24 - 6 = 18

SF road rating-----------------------> 18

Atlanta's home rating incl HFA-->  28

Vice-versa for Atlanta. Atl comes into this gm scoring more points on offense than they give up on defense in their 4 gm home series 74-63 ( +11 point diff) (positive home team) Advantage Atlanta. 

Something wrong with that picture wouldn't you say? Atlanta installed as the underdog? in a championship game,? Every picture tells a story don't it.

(cont)

Also the Falcon defensive coordinator was the former head coach at SF and had a lot to do with building that program and players.  Hopefully he has a plan for Kap.  He has very little NFL experience and has not seen as much as say a Brady or Manning or Brees or Rodgers, etc.  maybe confuse him with coverages.  At least take his run away and hopefully you can stop or defend the air game.  Since they looked so dismal with their pass rush, just worry about the run.  If they get to do both, it will be a long day.

SF is losing to their a.o.p.r (24) by 6pppg giving SF a road rating of 18

At  is  losing to their a.o.p.r (24.5 )by .25 pppg giving atl H rating of 28 

which includes their HFA

Common sense tells me that Atlanta has the advantage in this game on several parameters 

1. +10pts in Home rating 28 compared to SF 18

2    Better defense17 pppg vs SF 27pppg

3.  33-7 SU Home record since 2008

4,   Installed as homedog > 3pts in Champ gm

5. Pissed off that they are the dogs in this game and will come out fired up after the close call last week. .

We all know Atlanta should have lost their last game vs Seattle. There is no question even when you look at the pure points final of that game. However the fact of the matter is this. They didnt lose that game, they won, and Seattle lost, and Atl gets to move on...end of story. However, I notice the media and others focusing in on that game just as they are focusing in on the last game SF played at home vs GB. Big mistake imo. First off SF is not home, they are on the road and you must now use SF road games to calculate how SF fares on the rd vs their caliber of competition. Secondly, The Seattle @ Atlanta game is over and now just becomes part of a sequence to be averaged into Atlantas 4 game. home series. Why dont we hear about Sfrans last road game @ Seattle 11-42 thrashing. I don't buy they were in a bad spot.They play that team twice a year and have game film on them. Teams are professional and suit up for every game and give it their all. I heard a lot about Stl was in a bad spot when they won as 8pt dogs @ home to SF in OT then had to travel to Buffalo to play them. Nobody gave them a chance in that gm because of the spot they were in? They won the game SU & ATS as 3pt dog. They won because they were the better team. Period. So the spot talk can be debatable imo. and I will consider it in certain situations. Thats what SF did @ Seattle 11-42 so you average that gm into the 4 game road series sequence regardless.

I say Atlanta's 20 pppg offense will be able to take advantage of SF's 27 pppg defense faster than SF's 17 pppg offense can take advantage of Atl 17pppg defense.

Well take Atl 20 pppg offense and add it to SF's 27 pppg def and then take SF's 17pppg offense and add it to Atl 17 pppg defense to come up with a margin of victory / final score

 Atl Off. 20 + Sf Def. 27 = 47. we then will subtract 20 ( ave score of all NFL teams since its inception)

Atlanta 27

SF Off 17 + Atl Def 17 = 34 - 20 = 14

SF 14

Could be closer 27-24    30-27

My Figures show Atlanta...to win. SU

If SF wins the game, it wont be by more than what my lines is.

Thank you

bol to ya bud

Im going to throw out the Seattle game and calculate the 4 gm rd series with the 1st team in that series now being Arizona Wk 8. Then I will calculate the complete season 8 gm road series @ GB @Minn@Jets@Ari.@ NO@Stl@NE@Seattle and compare it with Atlatas 8 game season  home series. Lets see what happens.