Lets Discuss Wk8,,, Leans and General Discussion......

Brett Favre’s status for this game is in question, but his play has been so poor this season (5.7 yards per pass play and 10 interceptions) that the Vikings would actually be slightly better off with backup Tavaris Jackson playing (5.9 yppp career average, a lower interception percentage and good running ability). I’ll assume Favre will play but I hope he doesn’t (which would also result in the line going up). The pass attack has been better since Randy Moss was acquired from the Patriots, as Moss has averaged 7.2 yards per pass thrown to him while the rest of the Vikings’ wide receivers have averaged just 6.3 ypa this season. Moss also keep WR Percy Harvin from being double-teamed, which helps him get open. The Vikings pass attack has been just 0.2 yards per pass play worse than average with Moss and the offense is now 0.2 yards per play better than average. Favre’s interceptions are a problem, but he’s probably not going to continue to get picked off on 5.6% of his passes going forward given his career interception rate of 3.3% (I project him at 3.7%). New England has given up 6.1 yppp or more in every game this season and their defense overall is 0.3 yppl worse than average so the Vikings should be able to throw the ball pretty well regardless of who the quarterback is. New England does defend the run well (0.4 ypr better than average) but Minnesota is 0.5 ypr better than average offensively, so they should be able to run at a decent rate as well. 

While Moss has helped Minnesota’s offense it appears as if his departure has hurt the Patriots, as Tom Brady has averaged just 4.8 yards per pass play in 2 games without Moss (against teams that would allow 5.7 yppp to an average team). Some of that is probably just variance, but Brady’s numbers are just average for the season (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp) and the Patriots’ pass attack is probably a bit worse than average without Moss. New England’s rushing attack is only 0.1 ypr better than average and overall the Pats are no better than average offensively and will have a tough time against a solid Vikings’ defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average while being equally good against the run and the pass. 

There is no doubt that Minnesota has the advantage from the line of scrimmage in this game even if Favre doesn’t play, and New England’s edge in projected turnovers (+0.64 projected), special teams (0.9 points), penalties (1.0 points) and home field isn’t enough to overcome the Vikings superior play from the line of scrimmage. New England has been out-gained by an average of 327 yards at 5.4 yppl to 380 yards at 5.7 yppl this season and their +1.0 turnover margin average isn’t going to continue. Minnesota, meanwhile, has out-gained a tough schedule of teams and they aren’t likely to continue to be as bad as -1.0 in turnover margin per game. My math model favors Minnesota by 1 point in this game, but how effective Brett Favre will be if he plays is a concern and will keep me from making this game a Best Bet. However, if Favre is declared out then this line will probably go up to +7 and then I’d certainly like the Vikings as a Best Bet with Jackson at quarterback getting 7 points. I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Vikings in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.

The Texans finally broke through and beat the Colts in week 1 and I think they can at least keep this one close too. Houston’s ability to run the ball (5.8 ypr this season) against a soft Colts’ defensive front (5.0 ypr allowed) is a huge advantage in this match-up, just as it was in week 1 when the Texans ran for 260 yards at 6.7 ypr. I don’t expect those sort of numbers, but Houston quarterback Matt Schaub (6.8 yards per pass play) should play better than he did in that week 1 win (just 98 yards on 19 pass plays) and my math model projects 365 yards at 6.1 yards per play for the Texans in this game. The Colts are going to be able to move the ball too against a Houston defense that I rate at 0.4 yppl worse than average with star LB Brian Cushing back (he missed the first 4 games of the season due to suspension). However, my math model favors the Colts by only 4 ½ points and the Texans apply to a very good 104-45-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I’ll consider Houston a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take the Texans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.