Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

breaking down the numbers calculated on leans...

GB 22% @ Detroit at 19%

Interesting numbers with detroit getting +3 at home it looks as if Detroit can hang in a close game with a 2% margin the numbers are close....not gonna play this game but will keep an eye of the results if Detroit covers with such a close % margin it might be a handy trend to follow the program with those numbers

NYJ -20% @ St Louis -4.8%

Both really bad teams with both negatives on the calculations with the books pretty much using their own calculations to come up with the rams -3 at home...basically a crap shoot gonna pass on that shit fest 

TB 8% @ Carolina -6.8%

TB on the road getting 8% vs a struggling carolina at -6.8% like those numbers with again a small line at TB -1 Gonna play TB -1 for 1 unit 

Quote Originally Posted by pcz:

Would you mind sending me that system program? I'd like to see what parameters you're basing your figures on.

I could have a couple of things that may help your program out a bit more.

Quote Originally Posted by SharperThanYou:

these kinds of programs are useless, they r going to say kansas city should lose by a million and oakland should lose by a million but in fact those r both bad bets, the only way to handicap is by using your own brain, too many missing factors in a computer program unless somehow you have every single detail of every single game for the past 3 years recorded including how each point was scored, not just the final score, such as defensive touchdowns and so on, that would be a very difficult program to write

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

The program records every single play of the NFL...just as if the NFL records every single stat...lines makers use these same programs to factor in their lines...they don't set lines based of Tim tebows game last year as a bronco...why bother even factoring in last seasons games? Try capping the broncos with tebow before and Peyton manning this season...good luck with that...obviously the shit teams are gonna get bad numbers cuz they are bad teams...that's why I've decided not to play double digit spreads...

The three main stats the program does...

1.records every single play of the team and calculates how well or bad they are playing against the AVG team should play...from QB efficiency, first down conversions, turnovers, pts per game, defensive third down stops, etc..important cuz it gives u an idea how they are playing vs your avg NFL team...

2. it takes those numbers recorded and matches up both teams u are interested on wagering on and calculates what team has better numbers...I love this part as I don't want to look up every single stat on every team to see who has advantage cuz it takes touch numbers crunching and time...

3. consistency...again I don't watch every single game of the season of every single team so I don't know who's consistent...for example a co-worker of mine bet NYG last week and said "wtf giants looked horrible" I told him they are the most inconsistent team in the league...my program had them ranked dead last at 32...program has jaguars ranked 3 at consistency but they are Consistent and being BAD...Conistency is another stat I don't have time to analyze the whole season..comes in handy when factoring or capping a game...

this program cuts down on the number crunching and gives me a better overall idea of how a team is playing and how a team matches up against each other...

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ive created a program last year that records every play on every team on a weekly basis...the numbers are then adjusted to the league average and calculated to give a percentage of who is playing well recently, rather than the overall season....

pretty basic right? anybody can watch football and see whos hot and whos not currently....but, the program also records every defensive play...fumbles, interceptions, sacks, defensive scores etc....for example the highest percentage defense my program ranked the bears last week at -32%. If u watched the bears last week they scored alot on defense. The program recorded all the defensive plays and calculated it to -32% which was the highest of all the defensive teams last week... The Negative % on defense is a good thing and on offense obviously u want a positive %

Based off the program we can tell its recording every play accurately on defense as well as offense but this is where i place wagers with more confidence....the calculations on offense is adjusted based of strength of the opponent...

For example chicago had a high defense percentage at -32% cuz of their performance last week but their offense percentage against Houston was -14%...again negative % is good for defense but offense u want positive %.

So looking at the bears and houston game chicago's yea their defense is stellar with the numbers but their offense at  -14% against Houston is horrible...in contrast to houstons offense calculated at 5% so givin those numbers i would have wagered on Houston which they covered tonight...

My monday night numbers have calculated Pitt offense at 7% vs KC at -29% which ill be wagering on Pitt -12.5

Not claiming this program is undefeated use money management