HUGE PLAY FOR MNF

I think it has more to do with a math discussion and less ego.  I was trying to learn if there were situations where it makes sense to buy points.  Your responses were mathematically incorrect - so I pointed that out.  I tend to believe there isnt much debate in math, but OK.

But we can agree to disagree.  Continued success.

@jackedward32

@jpot34

@dcbets4lf

@thehuntman

@mrusso

@mrusso
Almost every pick I post involves a great or horrible situation. As I have stated previously many choose to ignore situations, but I don't. Ignoring situations is why 99.9% bettors go broke and why the sportsbooks/casinos get bigger.

@vanzack

 The math I presented was correct based on the worst case scenarios assuming a flat amount bet for every pick posted and that every loss was [-20]. As noted, my reality is better than that because my lines to buy the half point are often better than -20 but I still post as [-20] to keep tracking simple. From here, people can insert their own actual juice and calculate what it would mean to them. And, again, that's all matters at the end of the day! And this is why I say to stay focused on the wins-losses because after that what you make or don't make is personal. 

@SportsIntuition

 When you constantly advertise your bets as a “situation” or “spot” but don’t elaborate on what it all entails, leads a lot of people to believe you are throwing darts. I’d be curious to hear reasoning behind some of your “horrible situation” picks 

@bittenbythehook

 I've given some including score predictions and most have been spot-on.

And I think we all know I'm not throwing darts.

If I was my win rate wouldn't be sustainable for more than 100 picks.

@SportsIntuition

 For me last nights game, I made my largest wager of the season, by far. As you would say, it was a great situation for the eagles and a horrible spot for the dolphins. My bet was solely based on those factors, home field advantage last night was the difference IMO. Philadelphia is buzzing right now with the Phillies a game away from the WS. The atmosphere last night made it extremely difficult for Miami to come in and get the W. If this game was played in Miami, I honestly think Miami wins by double digits, easy. They are a far superior team than the eagles, IMO. 

@bittenbythehook

 If he's throwing darts, keep throwing them, bc overall he is winning. Here on this board, you have very successful cappers who pick the same winner but their analysis of the same game and same picks can be so different from each other, at the end of the day a winner is a winner is a winner. Who cares how you got there, it's the end that justifies the means. 

You want more information from someone who is winning. He doesn't need to provide that info. He is providing what are his "valuable" insights - his picks.  I suggest following him and just enjoy the ride. If he starts losing, then bitch and moan. Hopefully that won't happen anytime soon bc he is making a lot of people on this board a lot of money.

This is everything wrong with sports gamblers.  And you could say the world in general.

Feed me.  I dont want to learn on my own.  Just feed me.

@vanzack

 that' you're opinion and i can respect that. but you are projecting your own wants onto this forum. 

you have great analysis and i follow you. I'm just saying he provides one other data point that i use myself, which includes yours and my own research. that's all.

@vanzack

 really surprised with you. been following you for a while. you've come across as a prima donna recently. 

@dcbets4lf

 I’m not asking for him to explain it for me. I’m just stating facts on why people are skeptical of his reasonings behind his picks. You follow blindly and keep winning. That’s great, I’m happy you are tailing and winning off his picks. I just threw my insight out there of why he thinks he has “trolls” when people just ask legitimate questions. 

I can accept that.  I do project my wants on this forum.  That is true.

I want a forum where people share useful information.  And a lot of being successful at sports gambling (profitable) has nothing to do with picking winners.  Its an enormous pie with thousands of slices - and you might be an expert in one of those slices that nobody else is.

Picking winners is the crack of the sports gambling masses.  But there is no talk of being profitable in there.  And it is the "feed me" mentality I was referring to.  I am interested in the work - and the process - but maybe nobody else is.

So yes, I am guilty of what you accuse - and maybe I am the one in the wrong here.

@vanzack

 Amen my man 

I can respect that. I've read your posts in the strategies forum. not hating. i respect what you and i appreciate what you do. 

As someone who is new to this, i follow others who are successful but just post picks. no analysis, won't name them there's no need. then i look at yours and if i'm feeling the same pick, your analysis is much warranted. Yes - it would be nice to know more about the "why," i get that. 

Vanzack = 

Next time, ask me how picks are being done because I'll show you the math. 

Whiners 3 over 2 under 1 tie 

Vikqueens 1 over 5 under

Add it all up n don't forget about them decimal. 

4 over and 7 under

I would go with the math n pick under and losing my ass off.  

Fade me for money.  The play is over.  Ta da. 

@vanzack

 can we just go back to poking the bear ?- GreenandWhite23. that's more entertaining. lol 

Forums like this often times create more confusion for people, especially those who are newer and seeking.

I don't want to add to that confusion.

I simply want to share my picks with integrity and let the picks stand on their own because, in the end, that's all that matters.

Longwinded write ups don't equate to winners.

I've seen many try to dazzle with write ups, most of which only states the obvious, and lose big consistently.

Look around, connect into the poster's behavior and picks, and then use discernment and trust your own "sports intuition", and then place your wager.

You will know what to do based on how you feel.

100% 

It isn't about writeups or picks. It is the combination of the two.

You cannot guarantee just because you are winning now it continues. But if your play wins and your reasoning makes sense then there is something to learn. I agree many people ways of picking games are odd. None the less many appreciate the varied ways in which people make picks. For all anyone knows some people don't make picks they use others from somewhere else. Not saying you but the more you know the better which is why reasons matter. And you claimed great situations so it should be easy to explain. Many people love situational betting. Ironically you are wasting much more time with this conversation than it takes to expalin the reasons.

@smellybunty

 I'll rather follow someone who is winning with no write ups vs. someone who can write up a great analysis and keeps losing or not hitting it as much. It's as simple as that.  That's just me. 

Every bettor is different. Not everyone thinks the same. But a win is a win is a win. 

You deep down need something for some reason. If he shared the why behind his picks, would it change your mind? even when he is winning???? I don't get what you are looking for. Some validation for taking his picks? Just bc someone writes up an analysis, that is greater validation for a pick, when someone else on the board has a the opposite pick with a different analysis? Who's analysis is better? you can't tell. what tells is the pick. not the analysis. 

Once again, you are looking for output.

Some of us are looking for process.  Some of us dont care about the output as much as learning something in the reasoning.  I had a guy ask me about pressure rate a few weeks back, and then came in my thread quoting pressure rate stats a few weeks later.  That is gold.

Simple as that. 

You keep mentioning losing with writeups compared to winning without writeups. How about winning and writeups. How about losing an no writeups.Itis the combination of winning with writeups that you learn something and know that someone knows what they are doing and not just having a winning year ot week. If someone follows him from this point on and he hits 45% then whats your explanation gonna be? Stop acting like he can't lose and start looking for ways to improve.

Ironically if he is a good capper likely he learned those situaion from somone else.

Talk amongst yourself….. like butter.