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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Had to come back for this one

    «First Previous 12
    Macwestie1
    RebelTell2
    firesox
    gutinstinctus
    U812
    ...
    Participants:
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    «First Previous 12
     
    Macwestie1
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Feb. 10, 2023 - 3:03 PM ET #26

    GL cloverrespectively @gutinstinctus peace_5

    Like your style mah man an_2drinks

    Fly Eagles Fly!!!

    new_pleased

     

    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    GL cloverrespectively @gutinstinctus peace_5

    Like your style mah man an_2drinks

    Fly Eagles Fly!!!

    new_pleased

     

     
    RebelTell2
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    Posted: Feb. 10, 2023 - 6:58 PM ET #27

    clover Knock 'em dead.

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    clover Knock 'em dead.

     
    firesox
    firesox
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    Posted: Feb. 10, 2023 - 7:58 PM ET #28

    Good to see you.

     

    You are either biased or losing your marbkles if you believe this

    "Despite all of the trash that was spoken agains Philly´s super easy schedule during the course of the season, once that everything ended, we go back to check the stats and theEagles actually had the TOUGHEST schedule in the NFL"

     

    Such a bad take, Best qb they played all year was dak prescott who destroyed them. 2nd best was kirk cousins, but it was on primetime, where cousins is like 1-10

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    Good to see you.

     

    You are either biased or losing your marbkles if you believe this

    "Despite all of the trash that was spoken agains Philly´s super easy schedule during the course of the season, once that everything ended, we go back to check the stats and theEagles actually had the TOUGHEST schedule in the NFL"

     

    Such a bad take, Best qb they played all year was dak prescott who destroyed them. 2nd best was kirk cousins, but it was on primetime, where cousins is like 1-10

     
    gutinstinctus
    gutinstinctus
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 12:14 AM ET #29

    We

    @firesox

     Well those shit QBs you are describing had a hell of a better record than the Bradys/Rodgers of the league. Its 11vs 11... QB matters a lot but this is the ultimate team game

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    We

    @firesox

     Well those shit QBs you are describing had a hell of a better record than the Bradys/Rodgers of the league. Its 11vs 11... QB matters a lot but this is the ultimate team game

     
    U812
    U812
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 1:03 AM ET #30

    @gutinstinctus

     Eagles ml + under 

    what’s your score prediction for this game?

    clover

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    @gutinstinctus

     Eagles ml + under 

    what’s your score prediction for this game?

    clover

     
    2goodhahaha
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 11:30 AM ET #31

    Seeing a lots of Eagles backers taking them for their d-line (rushing 4or5 only). Isn't Chiefs o.line like top 5 or10 with couple of pro bowler and an MVP qb that's able 2adjust. Guess that why we bet & watch the game. Can't wait for this gameplan battle. 

    A broken Rolex is right twice A-day hahaha
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    Seeing a lots of Eagles backers taking them for their d-line (rushing 4or5 only). Isn't Chiefs o.line like top 5 or10 with couple of pro bowler and an MVP qb that's able 2adjust. Guess that why we bet & watch the game. Can't wait for this gameplan battle. 

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 11:47 AM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

    Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: @gutinstinctus  Always a good read, should get out more often   In the spirit of healthy discussion, how can you say "we all know Mahomes crumbles under pressure" when he led the league in QBR and came 2nd in passer rating to Burrow while leading the league in facing the most QB hurries and 5th most blitzes ?  If Philly can get pressure with their front 4 and force Mahomes to sit on the ball waiting for his open read then that will be how Philly beats him, same as Cincy had done in their previous wins and the same approach many teams tried all year vs KC.   I was right there with you losing that SB with that depleted offensive line so I know exactly what you are talking about....this is a completely different oline and different situation we have here.  Can't argue with anything else really.... big proponent of the Under correlation with backing the Eagles winning You are completely correct in what you state. Its all about the pressure that the front guys put in. If you blitz Mahomes with 7-8 guys, he is smart and good enough to find the open man quickly. There are two good things going for Philly in terms of their D Line pressure: i) The great secondary it has, enables it to almost always have 5 guys in the front. 5 on 5, when you have: Hasson Reddick, Hargraves, Fletcher Cox, Sweat and Brandon Graham most be a sight that makes you shit your pants as an O-Lineman.  ii) Reddick alligns left, so he will match up  against KC O line´s biggest liability in Andrew Wylie. And I doubt Reid is bringing much support for that matchup (not like they are going to block with Kelce, or that Isiah Pacheco can pose some obstacle to that SOB  when Reddick beats Wylie (it is "when", and not "if").  That secondary will allow Philly to scheme against KC under those presumptions is way simpler. You bring your front 5 and that is more than enough to generate the required pressure to make him uncomfortable. You trust Slay and Bradberry on the 1 on 1, and then one of your safeties should always have that extra eye on Kelce. Yes... this makes you vulnerable vs the run, and RB screens, but lets trust Andy Reid to behave like Andy Reid. If he adapts and goes with an Isiah Pacheco heavy gameplan, well, we are screwed haha. But my type of capping says, there is a very low chance of that happening.

    Don't count out McKinnon playing a Damien Williams vs. SF type of SB role in this game..... dude had over 70 targets and 50+ catches this year with 9 tuddies.  He hasn't done anything in the 2 playoff games this year but he is their best pass blocker and best receiver out of the back field.  Mahomes trusts him and he's been under the radar this whole post season.  

    You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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    Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

    Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg: @gutinstinctus  Always a good read, should get out more often   In the spirit of healthy discussion, how can you say "we all know Mahomes crumbles under pressure" when he led the league in QBR and came 2nd in passer rating to Burrow while leading the league in facing the most QB hurries and 5th most blitzes ?  If Philly can get pressure with their front 4 and force Mahomes to sit on the ball waiting for his open read then that will be how Philly beats him, same as Cincy had done in their previous wins and the same approach many teams tried all year vs KC.   I was right there with you losing that SB with that depleted offensive line so I know exactly what you are talking about....this is a completely different oline and different situation we have here.  Can't argue with anything else really.... big proponent of the Under correlation with backing the Eagles winning You are completely correct in what you state. Its all about the pressure that the front guys put in. If you blitz Mahomes with 7-8 guys, he is smart and good enough to find the open man quickly. There are two good things going for Philly in terms of their D Line pressure: i) The great secondary it has, enables it to almost always have 5 guys in the front. 5 on 5, when you have: Hasson Reddick, Hargraves, Fletcher Cox, Sweat and Brandon Graham most be a sight that makes you shit your pants as an O-Lineman.  ii) Reddick alligns left, so he will match up  against KC O line´s biggest liability in Andrew Wylie. And I doubt Reid is bringing much support for that matchup (not like they are going to block with Kelce, or that Isiah Pacheco can pose some obstacle to that SOB  when Reddick beats Wylie (it is "when", and not "if").  That secondary will allow Philly to scheme against KC under those presumptions is way simpler. You bring your front 5 and that is more than enough to generate the required pressure to make him uncomfortable. You trust Slay and Bradberry on the 1 on 1, and then one of your safeties should always have that extra eye on Kelce. Yes... this makes you vulnerable vs the run, and RB screens, but lets trust Andy Reid to behave like Andy Reid. If he adapts and goes with an Isiah Pacheco heavy gameplan, well, we are screwed haha. But my type of capping says, there is a very low chance of that happening.

    Don't count out McKinnon playing a Damien Williams vs. SF type of SB role in this game..... dude had over 70 targets and 50+ catches this year with 9 tuddies.  He hasn't done anything in the 2 playoff games this year but he is their best pass blocker and best receiver out of the back field.  Mahomes trusts him and he's been under the radar this whole post season.  

     
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 11:55 AM ET #33

    Mahomes "under pressure".... 

    On the season, including playoffs:  

    2nd in the League in EPA per play.

    2nd most games this season with positive EPA under Pressure (behind Allen)

    No QB has been sacked LESS often when under pressure....Mahomes rate 11% while league average is 20.5%

    Blitzing Mahomes continues to be "fools errand" as he leads the league in EPA per play against the blitz.  

    *KC offensive line is 1st in pass rush win rate by a wide margin.  The unit as a whole is one of the best, but as previously pointed out, KC RT is weakest link.  

    per https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

    You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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    Mahomes "under pressure".... 

    On the season, including playoffs:  

    2nd in the League in EPA per play.

    2nd most games this season with positive EPA under Pressure (behind Allen)

    No QB has been sacked LESS often when under pressure....Mahomes rate 11% while league average is 20.5%

    Blitzing Mahomes continues to be "fools errand" as he leads the league in EPA per play against the blitz.  

    *KC offensive line is 1st in pass rush win rate by a wide margin.  The unit as a whole is one of the best, but as previously pointed out, KC RT is weakest link.  

    per https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

     
    kcblitzkrieg
    kcblitzkrieg
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 12:01 PM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

    @gutinstinctus  Always a good read, should get out more often   In the spirit of healthy discussion, how can you say "we all know Mahomes crumbles under pressure" when he led the league in QBR and came 2nd in passer rating to Burrow while leading the league in facing the most QB hurries and 5th most blitzes ?  If Philly can get pressure with their front 4 and force Mahomes to sit on the ball waiting for his open read then that will be how Philly beats him, same as Cincy had done in their previous wins and the same approach many teams tried all year vs KC.   I was right there with you losing that SB with that depleted offensive line so I know exactly what you are talking about....this is a completely different oline and different situation we have here.  Can't argue with anything else really.... big proponent of the Under correlation with backing the Eagles winning

     

    Philly's defensive pass rush....

    Eagles 2nd highest pressure rate in NFL with 4 man rush.....11th when blitz

    Eagles 2nd in EPA per play with blitz 

    Eagles #1 & 2 Corners were dominant vs opposite teams' wide outs....2nd and 5th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap.  

    That duo was also 2nd in league against opposing #1 WR and 4th vs. #2 WR.  

    *KC throws to wide receivers at the 2nd lowest rate in the league at only 49%

    You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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    Quote Originally Posted by kcblitzkrieg:

    @gutinstinctus  Always a good read, should get out more often   In the spirit of healthy discussion, how can you say "we all know Mahomes crumbles under pressure" when he led the league in QBR and came 2nd in passer rating to Burrow while leading the league in facing the most QB hurries and 5th most blitzes ?  If Philly can get pressure with their front 4 and force Mahomes to sit on the ball waiting for his open read then that will be how Philly beats him, same as Cincy had done in their previous wins and the same approach many teams tried all year vs KC.   I was right there with you losing that SB with that depleted offensive line so I know exactly what you are talking about....this is a completely different oline and different situation we have here.  Can't argue with anything else really.... big proponent of the Under correlation with backing the Eagles winning

     

    Philly's defensive pass rush....

    Eagles 2nd highest pressure rate in NFL with 4 man rush.....11th when blitz

    Eagles 2nd in EPA per play with blitz 

    Eagles #1 & 2 Corners were dominant vs opposite teams' wide outs....2nd and 5th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap.  

    That duo was also 2nd in league against opposing #1 WR and 4th vs. #2 WR.  

    *KC throws to wide receivers at the 2nd lowest rate in the league at only 49%

     
    Macwestie1
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 12:01 PM ET #35

    @gutinstinctus peace_5

     goodpost #30

    What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
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    @gutinstinctus peace_5

     goodpost #30

     
    Mcmanus
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 2:13 PM ET #36

    The Eagles have the advantage in the trenches and the best rushing attack ..They have been excellent in the first half this season and hopefully they have the lead at Halftime and are able to run the ball late and bleed the clock.

    Good Luck with the Eagles ?? peace_5

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    The Eagles have the advantage in the trenches and the best rushing attack ..They have been excellent in the first half this season and hopefully they have the lead at Halftime and are able to run the ball late and bleed the clock.

    Good Luck with the Eagles ?? peace_5

     
    1pumpchump
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    Posted: Feb. 11, 2023 - 3:14 PM ET #37

    goodthread

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    goodthread

     
    FRANKtheBANKss
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2023 - 9:01 AM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

    Ive gone away, mostly because of the lack of in depth discussion that can make us gain something other than just pouring knowledge for free. But I have no problem on providing my pick and commenting on this thread, just for the sake of the superbowl and enlightening those that still dwell in the dark after a long season. Hopefully my bet cashes, you bet your houses on it, and get out of the red numbers for the season.   My bet is Philly. And I happen to believe that out of all games that Philly wins, at least 60% go under, so there is a lot of value of parlaying Philly ML and Under 50.5. So my bet is:Philly ML +Under 50.5 @+260 Now comes the enligthment. Pay attention, take notes, and learn the art of capping:  1. Philly is a much more balanced offense. You have a great tough to predict running attack in the league with Sanders (4.9 ypc) and Hurts (4.6 ypc). You have arguably the top 3 1-2 WR punch in the NFL with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith (I know there are guys with better numbers, but they are playing on much less balanced offenses), and add Dallas Goedert for the 3rd downs and goal line chances. Sum it up with one of the league´s best O-Lines.  Gameplanning against this offense is almost impossible. If I was Reid, Id try to have Hurts beat me through the air, but, hell, that SOB with those weapons can do it as easily as through the ground. 2. KC´s offense. KC is Mahomes and Kelce. That is the best duo in the league and no one can dispute it. Its like what Tom and Gronk were on their primes. But the WRs are no big deal... none of them reached 1k yards (while Smith and AJ Brown both did). Isiah Pacheco has been a great revelation as a runner but the guy had 13 catches all season. Now, I am worried, about his recent form vs Cincy where he caught 5. If he adopts a more versatile job it may make it harder for Phily, but by no means is he one of those dual threat RBs. If he is on the field, Phily worries about him running.  3. Philly´s Defense and its easier ability to scheme vs KC (Kelce). Philadelphia has the best pass rush in the league by a landslide, and one of the best pass rushes in the history of the NFL. SEVENTY MF SACKS! We all know Patrick Mahomes crumbles under pressure... that is why he lost that SB vs Tampa when he had a woed O-Line (in a game where I was on KC and completely underestimated KC´s injuries). This is part of the tough process you have to follow to learn the art of capping... I suffered the wounds, I learned and now I share my knowledge with some strangers (yeah, I am stupid).  Philly will be breathing on Mahomes neck all game long.  Now, the thing does not stop there... Philly has one of the best CB duos in the league and they proved it time after time. Slay and Bradberry are insane and can
      Good Luckpeaceclover. Always enjoyed your posts and agree with you 100% about well your thoughts on posting and wasted time for nothing but creating content in this "new age" of legal gambling can get you a little scratch if you don't mind others using your words. The worthless cable sports cable bimbo  networks "steal" pretty much ALL their "takes" from small pods and such. IE that Herd dude or any other corp hack dummy. GL on yourSB bets. Maybe pop in for the Madness in March if the mood hits you.peace_5 Had to hack your quote because of the 4000 word thing.

    God is Good and the Ball don't Lie.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gutinstinctus:

    Ive gone away, mostly because of the lack of in depth discussion that can make us gain something other than just pouring knowledge for free. But I have no problem on providing my pick and commenting on this thread, just for the sake of the superbowl and enlightening those that still dwell in the dark after a long season. Hopefully my bet cashes, you bet your houses on it, and get out of the red numbers for the season.   My bet is Philly. And I happen to believe that out of all games that Philly wins, at least 60% go under, so there is a lot of value of parlaying Philly ML and Under 50.5. So my bet is:Philly ML +Under 50.5 @+260 Now comes the enligthment. Pay attention, take notes, and learn the art of capping:  1. Philly is a much more balanced offense. You have a great tough to predict running attack in the league with Sanders (4.9 ypc) and Hurts (4.6 ypc). You have arguably the top 3 1-2 WR punch in the NFL with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith (I know there are guys with better numbers, but they are playing on much less balanced offenses), and add Dallas Goedert for the 3rd downs and goal line chances. Sum it up with one of the league´s best O-Lines.  Gameplanning against this offense is almost impossible. If I was Reid, Id try to have Hurts beat me through the air, but, hell, that SOB with those weapons can do it as easily as through the ground. 2. KC´s offense. KC is Mahomes and Kelce. That is the best duo in the league and no one can dispute it. Its like what Tom and Gronk were on their primes. But the WRs are no big deal... none of them reached 1k yards (while Smith and AJ Brown both did). Isiah Pacheco has been a great revelation as a runner but the guy had 13 catches all season. Now, I am worried, about his recent form vs Cincy where he caught 5. If he adopts a more versatile job it may make it harder for Phily, but by no means is he one of those dual threat RBs. If he is on the field, Phily worries about him running.  3. Philly´s Defense and its easier ability to scheme vs KC (Kelce). Philadelphia has the best pass rush in the league by a landslide, and one of the best pass rushes in the history of the NFL. SEVENTY MF SACKS! We all know Patrick Mahomes crumbles under pressure... that is why he lost that SB vs Tampa when he had a woed O-Line (in a game where I was on KC and completely underestimated KC´s injuries). This is part of the tough process you have to follow to learn the art of capping... I suffered the wounds, I learned and now I share my knowledge with some strangers (yeah, I am stupid).  Philly will be breathing on Mahomes neck all game long.  Now, the thing does not stop there... Philly has one of the best CB duos in the league and they proved it time after time. Slay and Bradberry are insane and can
      Good Luckpeaceclover. Always enjoyed your posts and agree with you 100% about well your thoughts on posting and wasted time for nothing but creating content in this "new age" of legal gambling can get you a little scratch if you don't mind others using your words. The worthless cable sports cable bimbo  networks "steal" pretty much ALL their "takes" from small pods and such. IE that Herd dude or any other corp hack dummy. GL on yourSB bets. Maybe pop in for the Madness in March if the mood hits you.peace_5 Had to hack your quote because of the 4000 word thing.

     
    joe pockets
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2023 - 9:48 AM ET #39

    @gutinstinctus

     Nice write up! Im still on the fence as most of the Teams Philly has played this year we’re sub par broken down Chevy Vega’s, Its funny when the old football coach said "You are what your record says you “ because it forgets the other part of the equation…. “The competition “ Just go back 2 week with the 49ers, Can you say the Eagles were the more talented  team ..No! A healthy Colts Bears & Texans team would have beaten that opponent …To me the Eagles are a unknown quantity…Tomorrows headlines will tell the story, Providing Hurts don’t get knocked out of the game on the 2nd set of downs….I’m already on the Over 50.5 so hopefully everyone finishes the game walking 

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    @gutinstinctus

     Nice write up! Im still on the fence as most of the Teams Philly has played this year we’re sub par broken down Chevy Vega’s, Its funny when the old football coach said "You are what your record says you “ because it forgets the other part of the equation…. “The competition “ Just go back 2 week with the 49ers, Can you say the Eagles were the more talented  team ..No! A healthy Colts Bears & Texans team would have beaten that opponent …To me the Eagles are a unknown quantity…Tomorrows headlines will tell the story, Providing Hurts don’t get knocked out of the game on the 2nd set of downs….I’m already on the Over 50.5 so hopefully everyone finishes the game walking 

     
    Newkid92
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2023 - 9:55 AM ET #40

    all i saw was too 3 wr bunch lol 

    my ass not even close 

    and he’s horrid at throwing 

    so what do you got a team that can run 

    congrats you have a college offence 

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    all i saw was too 3 wr bunch lol 

    my ass not even close 

    and he’s horrid at throwing 

    so what do you got a team that can run 

    congrats you have a college offence 

     
    gambling-devil
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2023 - 9:57 AM ET #41

    peace_5an_cheers

    Every day out of the red is a big win.
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    peace_5an_cheers

     
    dustmiester
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2023 - 10:42 AM ET #42

    I personally like 1 prop ..Hurts over 51 yards rushing 

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    I personally like 1 prop ..Hurts over 51 yards rushing 

     
     
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    Posted: Feb. 12, 2023 - 10:57 AM ET #43

    Nice work peace_5peaceclover

    Learn, be content and stay disciplined.
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    Nice work peace_5peaceclover

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