Had to come back for this one

Ive gone away, mostly because of the lack of in depth discussion that can make us gain something other than just pouring knowledge for free. But I have no problem on providing my pick and commenting on this thread, just for the sake of the superbowl and enlightening those that still dwell in the dark after a long season. Hopefully my bet cashes, you bet your houses on it, and get out of the red numbers for the season.  

My bet is Philly. And I happen to believe that out of all games that Philly wins, at least 60% go under, so there is a lot of value of parlaying Philly ML and Under 50.5. So my bet is:Philly ML +Under 50.5 @+260 Now comes the enligthment. Pay attention, take notes, and learn the art of capping:  

1. Philly is a much more balanced offense. You have a great tough to predict running attack in the league with Sanders (4.9 ypc) and Hurts (4.6 ypc). You have arguably the top 3 1-2 WR punch in the NFL with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith (I know there are guys with better numbers, but they are playing on much less balanced offenses), and add Dallas Goedert for the 3rd downs and goal line chances. Sum it up with one of the league´s best O-Lines.  Gameplanning against this offense is almost impossible. If I was Reid, Id try to have Hurts beat me through the air, but, hell, that SOB with those weapons can do it as easily as through the ground. 

2. KC´s offense. KC is Mahomes and Kelce. That is the best duo in the league and no one can dispute it. Its like what Tom and Gronk were on their primes. But the WRs are no big deal... none of them reached 1k yards (while Smith and AJ Brown both did). Isiah Pacheco has been a great revelation as a runner but the guy had 13 catches all season. Now, I am worried, about his recent form vs Cincy where he caught 5. If he adopts a more versatile job it may make it harder for Phily, but by no means is he one of those dual threat RBs. If he is on the field, Phily worries about him running. 

3. Philly´s Defense and its easier ability to scheme vs KC (Kelce). Philadelphia has the best pass rush in the league by a landslide, and one of the best pass rushes in the history of the NFL. SEVENTY MF SACKS! We all know Patrick Mahomes crumbles under pressure... that is why he lost that SB vs Tampa when he had a woed O-Line (in a game where I was on KC and completely underestimated KC´s injuries). This is part of the tough process you have to follow to learn the art of capping... I suffered the wounds, I learned and now I share my knowledge with some strangers (yeah, I am stupid).  Philly will be breathing on Mahomes neck all game long. 

Now, the thing does not stop there... Philly has one of the best CB duos in the league and they proved it time after time. Slay and Bradberry are insane and can get rid of the 2 opposing WRs they are covering. So under that presumption, with KC´s below average WR corpse (Juju and Marquez Valdez lol), Philadelphia can scheme on Kelce. 
Philadelphia´s defense weakness is obviously the run. Dont tell Fat Andy the secret, but in the 3 games that Phily lost this season (Wash, NO and Dallas), those teams ran the rock 30+times in all of them. KC should run the hell out of this game to beat the Eagles. BUT, out of all coaches in the history of mankind, Andy Reid is probably the one that runs the least in games that matter. That is why he almost blew an easy win vs Cincy 2 weeks ago. There is a reason why KC, despite having a 14-3 record, had 417 rush attempts vs 651 pass attempts. That is a 40-60 run vs pass split, despite being well ahead in half of their games. Philly, with the same record had 536-544. Now, that is BALANCE, and that keeps a defense guessing. 

Good writeup.  Miss you around here.

Very good points. Really glad you decided to come back and share.

You are the kind of guys we miss around here.  You were the MEAT and POTATOES of Covers. Now we have Theasscrack, JimmyGape, and a whole mayonnaise jar full of Guarantees, bet your house, 20,000 dollar fake bettors, along with all the bottom feeders that swim around and give them credibility. 

Again, thanks for popping back in and sharing.

4. KC´s defense. Dont get me wrong. Im not biased to the point of denying how good this D is. 2nd best pass rush in the league (but the difference is 15 sacks). KC has been as good as Philly against WR and appears to be better against the run. But there are two grains of salt that must be taken: 
a) Despite all of the trash that was spoken agains Philly´s super easy schedule during the course of the season, once that everything ended, we go back to check the stats and theEagles actually had the TOUGHEST schedule in the NFL. Why... well mainly because the NFC Least turned into NFC Beast, placed 3 out of the 4 last teams standing in the NFC. Dont believe me... here is the data to back that up: https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/schedule/strength-of-schedule.html  As you can see, was middle of the road in terms of strength of schedule. 

b) KC has not faced anything close to this Offense. Against the more well rounded/scrambling QB offenses they struggled more. Josh Allen got them. The Chargers got them once and lost a close one later. The shit faced Broncos, had 2 very close games on them. Opposing QBs averaged 5 ypc against them, despite not facing Baltimore, Philly, NYG or Chicago. I insist, this Offense is a different animal, because of the ammount of weapons it has, and especially the quality of all those weapons summed up. This Eagles team is almost certainly the all time Madden favorite team to use. 

So... final enligthenment... why parlaying Total with Philly ML: 
1.  The Eagles dont give a fuck about covering 1.5, they only care about winning. Allign me with their interests. 
2. If Philly goes ahead, Philly should continue to run and consume the clock, and Reid will do what he always does: pass pass pass, making KC one dimensional against a top 5 all time pass rush.

3. Also, I told you I respect KC´s defense, and I dont see it likely that Philly scores 30 on them. I actually think just betting the under is a good bet. But the under hits way more if Philly is ahead and if Philly wins the game, than if KC goes ahead and Philly is forced to pass and reduce the time consumption machine that they have been throughout the season. 

Cheers and GL. If anyone has a site that offers a roughing the passer flag prop, please let me know. We will see some of those with these 2 beasts of pass rushing Ds. Id say, they are by far the best pass rush Ds combined in the history of the Super Bowl.  

One last thing. For all KC backers, the way I see KC winning requires a lot of Kelce and a lot of Isiah Pacheco. If you have your reasons to back the Chiefs... take a deep look into those props, because that is the path to the Lombardi for KC. 

great write up 

@gutinstinctus

 Always a good read, should get out more often  

In the spirit of healthy discussion, how can you say "we all know Mahomes crumbles under pressure" when he led the league in QBR and came 2nd in passer rating to Burrow while leading the league in facing the most QB hurries and 5th most blitzes ?  If Philly can get pressure with their front 4 and force Mahomes to sit on the ball waiting for his open read then that will be how Philly beats him, same as Cincy had done in their previous wins and the same approach many teams tried all year vs KC.  

I was right there with you losing that SB with that depleted offensive line so I know exactly what you are talking about....this is a completely different oline and different situation we have here.  Can't argue with anything else really.... big proponent of the Under correlation with backing the Eagles winning 

Nice job on why you believe Philly will win and go under

BOL in your plays

@gutinstinctus

Thanks for your thoughts. 

If we do actually see the Chiefs handing off the ball a lot(which they "should"), then this is a dead nut under.

I've noticed that the Eagles have used up nearly the entire play clock on almost all of their plays.

They have controlled clock well.

I don't think Jalen Hurts has been right since hurting his shoulder vs the Bears. He hasn't had to pass a lot, and hasn't run a lot like he did before the injury.

Think they've been kind of hiding him? I do.

Good Luck 

Welcome back gut. Thanks for still keeping it old school like the old days of Covers, I just don't have the energy like I once did to post in depth analysis like the one you have provided here plus it's not appreciated enough by many in this day and age although a few of us old school cats still do. Thank you for time and effort to share your thoughts

However A few counterpoints though...

Strength of schedule. NFC LEast no doubt was an NFC BEast this year but NFC East played the AFC South and NFC North. AFC South was a terrible division. NFC North was a mixed bag. Their division fattened up over all the cupcakes they were eating.. no team in that division had a losing record. No disagreeing that the NFC East was the best NFC conference this year. NFC West, normally a very strong division had a downturn year. The NFC overall was not as strong as last season. I know the Eagles had no say on who they could play on their schedule but the teams that they did play, as weak as they were, they mostly dominated them as they should. That is a sign of a good team but they haven't truly been tested in my opinion. The closest to KC in quality competition they had faced is the Cowboys. And I think the Cowboys weren't as good as their record indicates. Maybe slightly over performed. 10-7 team masquerading as an 12-5 team.

Chiefs schedule may not be all that impressive either but I feel like they have played slightly better competition despite underperforming NFC West and AFC West. They played the same garbage AFC South too but where it stands out to me is the games they played against Bills and Bengals. 

70 sacks total. Impressive numbers but you'd have to look at what offensive lines they were going against to achieve that number and not many were top 10 units other than Lions, Cowboys, Jags and Packers. Not trying to sell the Eagles pass rush short they can only play whose on their schedule. they have also done decent job against top O-lines, even against the Niners in the playoffs they weren't ready for Eagles physicality  but with Mahomes under center it's going to be a little different with his mobility. KC offensive line is top 10 but they will no doubt face the best defensive line in the NFL. Mahomes will get his share of sacks but don't see it play out anything like the Tampa Super Bowl where Mahomes was flustered and couldn't do anything with backup linemen..

That's about all I have to say. Good luck in the Bowl 

Sugarhouse has any time including 0.T roughing the passer call +145 hope this helps you out. It is under the penalties section.

Yet another intelligent post. 

It's either KC and OVER, or Philly/Under. Either way, if KC gets the lead early, Hurts and Philly will have to play catchup all game long. This is the Super Bowl, I'm taking the better, more experienced Coach and QB. Thanks for all the opines. Definitely worth consideration. 

@Digitalkarma

 70 sacks, is 70 sacks. Some teams always have easier schedules, play against poor QBs... those teams don't get up to 70. Not saying they the greatest of all time, but 70 sacks, is 70 sacks and not just any defence does that. 

Fair points my friend. Eagles D-line is talented no matter who theyve played their prescence has been felt

Great analysis but you forgot 1 thing. Hurts has zero experience in the super bowl and outside of this year has been a terrible quarterback. I agree with everything else you said and  Philly definitely has the better team.  Myhomie gets the win and Jalen hurts his team with at least two interceptions. Patrick is a winner and just on another level,  even being injured. Kc 34 Phi 24 the Eagles were the feel good story of the year but MyHomie is about to bring them back down to reality

Gut, thanks for posting your analysis.  Good luck with the play.  

You are completely correct in what you state. Its all about the pressure that the front guys put in. If you blitz Mahomes with 7-8 guys, he is smart and good enough to find the open man quickly. There are two good things going for Philly in terms of their D Line pressure:

i) The great secondary it has, enables it to almost always have 5 guys in the front. 5 on 5, when you have: Hasson Reddick, Hargraves, Fletcher Cox, Sweat and Brandon Graham most be a sight that makes you shit your pants as an O-Lineman. 

ii) Reddick alligns left, so he will match up  against KC O line´s biggest liability in Andrew Wylie. And I doubt Reid is bringing much support for that matchup (not like they are going to block with Kelce, or that Isiah Pacheco can pose some obstacle to that SOB  when Reddick beats Wylie (it is "when", and not "if"). 

That secondary will allow Philly to scheme against KC under those presumptions is way simpler. You bring your front 5 and that is more than enough to generate the required pressure to make him uncomfortable. You trust Slay and Bradberry on the 1 on 1, and then one of your safeties should always have that extra eye on Kelce. Yes... this makes you vulnerable vs the run, and RB screens, but lets trust Andy Reid to behave like Andy Reid. If he adapts and goes with an Isiah Pacheco heavy gameplan, well, we are screwed haha. But my type of capping says, there is a very low chance of that happening. 

@gutinstinctus

 I agree...this will be KC's toughest test yet....but also Philly's toughest test as well.  The X's & O's matchup favors the Iggles.... there is this Mahomes factor thing though that could be the great equalizer come Sunday.  Hope there are lots of fireworks come Sunday and we all get a great game  

Cheers DK, Wish you all the best today and always.

Regarding the Schedule, KC and the AFC West also faced the AFC South. In fact, the Chiefs lost to the Colts...  I wouldnt say the NFC North is soft. Detroit sucks and will always do, but Minnesota was the 2nd seed, Chicago had a winning record, and the 8-9 cheeseheads, arent as bad as their record IMO. 

KC´s O line is solid, but RT is its highest vulnerability. And that is where Reddick feasts. 

BOL in whatever your plays are! Thanks for taking the time to reply lenghtily!

Cheers to all and thanks for stopping by! All the best!