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DIRECT FROM VEGAS

WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES

It's time once again to run through the NFL schedule with an eye toward what Las Vegas sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about the weekend's NFL games. There's a lot to talk about. So, let's jump right in.

CAROLINA/JACKSONVILLE: There hasn't been much action in this one. The sharps generally take double digit dogs when they can. So, they wouldn't act right away on an underdog like this if they were going to play. They'd wait and hope the public drove the line even higher on game day. That's my sense of this one. In fact, this could end up being a popular play if the line goes to +11 or better. The sharps are skeptical of the Jags as big favorites. And, the fact that Carolina finally played well last week should encourage them to take the big number here. This is a case were a lack of early action is telling you a big play may be on the horizon. The sharps are waiting for a better number, but they're going to be on the double digit dog.

DALLAS/DETROIT: There's less enthusiasm for Detroit than there is for Carolina at the similar price. Dallas is a blowout team while Jacksonville isn't. And, Detroit is still collapsing while Carolina looks to have snapped out their free fall last week. This line did see some initial early action on Dallas. My information says that's from guys trying to set up a middle. The public is much more likely to bet on Dallas than Jacksonville in a big way, so these guys wanted a piece of Dallas early, then they would hope to buy back on Detroit if they see something as high as +13 or so. I do expect some old school types to take the big home dog Sunday morning. There's just too much of a history for them to buck. They won with Buffalo over Dallas that way. They lost with Buffalo over New England that way. They won with Baltimore over New England. It might be 50/50 this year, but they're going to keep trying. My early read is that there's more enthusiasm for Carolina than Detroit in those similarly priced games.

MIAMI/BUFFALO: Not much action here. The sharps generally won't lay big points with a team that's rarely a favorite. They also like divisional underdogs late in the season because teams are prone to get up for rivals. The problem here is that Miami just has no offense. They didn't score an offensive TD again last week. How can you bet on a team that never scores? Most guys I know are leaving this game alone. The action players are waiting on the weather. They'll take the Under if weather is an issue, knowing these two teams played a 13-10 game in good conditions a few weeks ago.

NY GIANTS/PHILADELPHIA: This is a funny matchup. Right now, nobody in Vegas wants any part of Eli Manning. He's been awful the last two weeks, even though the Giants did rally and cover at Chicago in their most recent game. This isn't a city that particularly trusts Donovan McNabb right now either. He's not a great quarterback when he's not mobile. Coming back from an injury, how mobile can he be? And, they all remember how often he was sacked in the first meeting. Nobody's touching this game! I do expect some Under money coming in if the weather forecast is bad. Otherwise, the oddsmakers seem to have put up a line that's discouraged sharp action. We'll only see the Wise Guys get involved if the public moves this line off the three on game day. That would surprise me.

OAKLAND/GREEN BAY: We've seen the line go up a bit here, and the total go down. That's an odd combination. But, you can see it in a game like this where a shaky visitor will be outdoors in the winter. Green Bay has extra preparation time from their Thursday game in Dallas. That usually gets respect from the sharps. In this case, it's a top team after a loss too. So, that's why the early money was on Green Bay. Some of that was setting up a middle possibility too. The sharps are hoping the public keeps betting Green Bay and the line goes up. We've got a few spreads sitting just above 10 points this week. That's going to encourage a lot of three-team teasers. The public can't resist those.

PITTSBURGH/NEW ENGLAND: This is where all the big money hit. It's as if the sharps were passing many of the earlier games because they were so focused on this one! New England opened -13, but is down to -10.5 right now. The total opened 52, but is down to 48. It's very odd to see moves this big so early in the week, particularly on an underdog. The sharps didn't want to risk waiting. Their"go against New England" theme has finally clicked in the past two weeks. They couldn't believe they were getting a top team like Pittsburgh and double digits against an fading opponent that just struggled to get by Philadelphia and Baltimore. They also figured the public was done laying huge numbers with the Pats after those last two games. Why the move on the total? 52 has become a magic number with the totals guys. Study shows that games lined that high generally go Under. It's become an automatic play as a result. There's also a perception that Pittsburgh will slow down the tempo and run clock. The weather forecast may be an issue as well. So far, this is the big one. The sharps love Pittsburgh at +11 or better, and may keep loving them at any double digit price.

SAN DIEGO/TENNESSEE: San Diego opened at -1, and is now down to pick-em. So, that's a slight move to Tennessee. But, action died after the move. The sharps are seeing this as a true pick-em right now. Unless the public acts on Sunday, I don't expect to see much sharp action on the team side. The total has come down a tick from the opener. Weather may encourage that further downward. A lot of sharps got hurt last week going against San Diego with the Chiefs. They're not in the mood to tempt fate again.

ST. LOUIS/CINCINNATI: The opener of Cincinnati by 6.5 moved up to -7. Not much has happened since. This isn't the kind of game that's going to appeal to sharps. They normally like underdogs. But, they've learned over the years to be wary of dome teams playing outdoors in cold December weather. There's also an AFC/NFC angle here. If you're going to bet on a bad NFC team, you want to be getting more than a touchdown. If the weather turns out to be mild, I could see some Rams money coming in since Marc Bulger has been cleared to start at QB again. If not, this will largely be a low-action game I expect.

TAMPA BAY/HOUSTON: Nothing to report here. Everyone's waiting for some kind of confirmation about the Tampa Bay quarterback situation. Houston will definitely have its backup QB going this week. I think it's going to be hard for many guys to get involved unless they here Jeff Garcia feels great and is ready to go. It's hard to ask a backup QB to have two great games in a row on the road. It's hard to ask Houston to do anything right now. They've looked flat the last two games. I'm sorry there are so many quiet games to report on this week. All the excitement really was on Pittsburgh and the Under against New England. And, there are some dogs that will become news on Sunday once the public drives the lines up.

ARIZONA/SEATTLE: The total has dropped from 45.5 down to 44 on the news that Arizona might be without two key receivers. Remember that 45 is a common number in football (24-21, 28-17), so crossing it represents a large move. That's a strong Under indicator at this point. The team side line as gone from Seattle -6.5 to -7. Nobody wants to lay more than a touchdown in a game where so much is at stake.

MINNESOTA/SAN FRANCISCO: I was surprised at all the Minnesota action out of the gate. The line opened -7, and moved all the way up to 8.5. Some of that was position taking. But, I have to say the sharps have been hitting Minnesota pretty hard the last two Sundays with great success. We saw a late move last week against Detroit just before the 42-10 rout. And, they were a popular play at New York the week before too. This may have just been early action because the sharps didn't want the public to take their Vikings away! I think some old schoolers will take the home dog on Sunday. They're not ready to believe that Minnesota is really this good. The 49ers have a history of playing low scoring games under this coach as well, which makes that an even taller number than it seems. This is kind of an old school/new school rift amongst the sharps. The younger guys will lay points on the road with the right teams. The older guys won't ever lay points on the road, and will pretty much take them with anybody, no matter how bad the team might be. Over the years, the old school approach has clearly worked. Football may be changing so much that it won't work any more. We'll have to wait and see.