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DIRECT FROM VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
It's time for our weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about the upcoming NFL slate. I hope these reports have helped you learn how to think like a sharp. We've still got a month left in the regular season, and the full playoffs head. Now is the time to take advantage of what you've learned!
ATLANTA AT ST. LOUIS: The sharps drove the total down from 42 to 40.5 on the assumption that Marc Bulger would be out for St. Louis. He is, so they're happy with their position. Gus Frerotte has had trouble finding the end zone. But, so has Atlanta, and they're facing what looks to be an improved St. Louis defense. The team side line hasn't moved from the Rams by a field goal yet. It probably won't because a half point either way would inspire sharp action. The Under here is the Wise Guys play, particularly if you can see a number at 41 or more.
BUFFALO AT WASHINGTON: Washington has been getting the early money, as the opener of -5 is now up to -6. It was confirmed that Buffalo will be without its starting running back again this week. That provided some additional action on the home favorite. Sharps tend to like underdogs as you know. They'll only take favorites when setting up a position for a middle, or if there's a REALLY great reason to take the favorite. Buffalo having nothing at running back might be a good enough reason. But, if this lines goes all the way to 7.5 or so, the sharps would be buying back on the middle. Some of this might be positioning.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: We've seen strong sharp moves already this week on Minnesota. The line opened -3, and is up to -4 in most places. You longtime readers know that the sharps like underdogs, rivalry underdogs, and underdogs with good quarterbacks. So, for this line to get off the three, STAY off the three, and then move to -4, tells you that the Wise Guys really like Minnesota a lot. They're aware that the Lions have the long week after Thanksgiving to get ready. But, three straight losses suggest that Detroit is in the midst of a collapse. The total has also jumped here from 44.5 to 45.5. The sharps saw these teams play high scoring games last week, and know this is a dome game. I don't expect more Over money, but 45 is a key number, and they wanted to play Overs at that number and just below.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: The total here dropped from 43 to 42. That was keyed by Houston's playing two straight Unders since the bye week. They've stopped being a team that plays shootouts. And, they just lost their offensive coordinator to Texas A&M. He'll hang around, but something like that is almost never a good thing in the NFL. Tennessee prefers to run the ball and grind out victories. Early deficits have killed that opportunity the last two weeks. The sharps are looking for a return to form here, and a relatively quiet game. Note that the line opened at Tennessee -3.5, and moved to -4. Even though it's only a half a point, that's a VERY strong move to the favorite. When the sharps like a dog, they jump on a 3.5 as soon as they see it. They jumped the other way here, suggesting they think the right number is closer to 6 or 7. It's odd to see so many anti-dog plays from sharps. Some teams have really started to fade though. The Wise Guys don't want to get caught napping.
JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Hey, we have an early move on an underdog! The line here opened Indy -7, and is now down to -6.5. I don't expect to see any further move down. Seven is a key number. The sharps do like the Jags in terms of the personnel matchup. You may remember that the sharps loved Jacksonville in a late season meeting last year when the Jags won huge. They'll take the seven points and hope for a close one. I don't get the sense they're ready to take a stand on anything less than 6.5 though. Indy is a better team this December than they were last December. And, the Colts had extra preparation time after a Thanksgiving night game. The sharps are happy with their early positions at +7, and will probably stick with those.
NY JETS AT MIAMI: I've heard mixed interest on this one. The line has basically stayed put. I know some sharps like Miami to finally get their first victory of the season this week. We've seen in the past that winless teams will find a way to rise to the occasion. Who better than the Jets to defeat? The problem is, the Jets have extra preparation time coming off a Thanksgiving game, while Miami has a short week off the Monday Night mess in Pittsburgh. Systems players like the Jets. Those forces have cancelled each other out so far. And, frankly, neither had much passion about their pick to begin with. There just isn't a sharp side or total in this one right now.
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES
It's time for our weekly look at what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about the upcoming NFL slate. I hope these reports have helped you learn how to think like a sharp. We've still got a month left in the regular season, and the full playoffs head. Now is the time to take advantage of what you've learned!
ATLANTA AT ST. LOUIS: The sharps drove the total down from 42 to 40.5 on the assumption that Marc Bulger would be out for St. Louis. He is, so they're happy with their position. Gus Frerotte has had trouble finding the end zone. But, so has Atlanta, and they're facing what looks to be an improved St. Louis defense. The team side line hasn't moved from the Rams by a field goal yet. It probably won't because a half point either way would inspire sharp action. The Under here is the Wise Guys play, particularly if you can see a number at 41 or more.
BUFFALO AT WASHINGTON: Washington has been getting the early money, as the opener of -5 is now up to -6. It was confirmed that Buffalo will be without its starting running back again this week. That provided some additional action on the home favorite. Sharps tend to like underdogs as you know. They'll only take favorites when setting up a position for a middle, or if there's a REALLY great reason to take the favorite. Buffalo having nothing at running back might be a good enough reason. But, if this lines goes all the way to 7.5 or so, the sharps would be buying back on the middle. Some of this might be positioning.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: We've seen strong sharp moves already this week on Minnesota. The line opened -3, and is up to -4 in most places. You longtime readers know that the sharps like underdogs, rivalry underdogs, and underdogs with good quarterbacks. So, for this line to get off the three, STAY off the three, and then move to -4, tells you that the Wise Guys really like Minnesota a lot. They're aware that the Lions have the long week after Thanksgiving to get ready. But, three straight losses suggest that Detroit is in the midst of a collapse. The total has also jumped here from 44.5 to 45.5. The sharps saw these teams play high scoring games last week, and know this is a dome game. I don't expect more Over money, but 45 is a key number, and they wanted to play Overs at that number and just below.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: The total here dropped from 43 to 42. That was keyed by Houston's playing two straight Unders since the bye week. They've stopped being a team that plays shootouts. And, they just lost their offensive coordinator to Texas A&M. He'll hang around, but something like that is almost never a good thing in the NFL. Tennessee prefers to run the ball and grind out victories. Early deficits have killed that opportunity the last two weeks. The sharps are looking for a return to form here, and a relatively quiet game. Note that the line opened at Tennessee -3.5, and moved to -4. Even though it's only a half a point, that's a VERY strong move to the favorite. When the sharps like a dog, they jump on a 3.5 as soon as they see it. They jumped the other way here, suggesting they think the right number is closer to 6 or 7. It's odd to see so many anti-dog plays from sharps. Some teams have really started to fade though. The Wise Guys don't want to get caught napping.
JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: Hey, we have an early move on an underdog! The line here opened Indy -7, and is now down to -6.5. I don't expect to see any further move down. Seven is a key number. The sharps do like the Jags in terms of the personnel matchup. You may remember that the sharps loved Jacksonville in a late season meeting last year when the Jags won huge. They'll take the seven points and hope for a close one. I don't get the sense they're ready to take a stand on anything less than 6.5 though. Indy is a better team this December than they were last December. And, the Colts had extra preparation time after a Thanksgiving night game. The sharps are happy with their early positions at +7, and will probably stick with those.
NY JETS AT MIAMI: I've heard mixed interest on this one. The line has basically stayed put. I know some sharps like Miami to finally get their first victory of the season this week. We've seen in the past that winless teams will find a way to rise to the occasion. Who better than the Jets to defeat? The problem is, the Jets have extra preparation time coming off a Thanksgiving game, while Miami has a short week off the Monday Night mess in Pittsburgh. Systems players like the Jets. Those forces have cancelled each other out so far. And, frankly, neither had much passion about their pick to begin with. There just isn't a sharp side or total in this one right now.
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Good shit thanks 
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