Posted:
#1
first of all, dont let the soft line fool you. vegas has disrespected the falcons all year and set lines that appeared to be sucker bets all season. look at week1: -1 @ KC (atl wins 40-24), week 5: -3 @ WASH (atl wins 24-17), week 9: -3 1/2 vs DALL (atl wins 19-13), week 15: -1 vs NYG (atl wins 34-0), and the line that everyone thought was a TRAP? week 16: -3 1/2 @ DET (atl wins 31-18) so please, dont be intimidated by biting on a questionable line.
next, lets talk about the matchup. this will be strength vs strength of the falcons 5th ranked pass offense vs the seattle 6th ranked pass defense. but, dont forget that the falcon receivers are the most physical receiving core in the nfl in white, jones, douglas, and gonzales. the reason the seattle secondary has bullied so many receiving corp's this year is not so much their ability to create a mismatch in speed, but their ability to out physical their foes and basically intimidate the s h # t out of them. that will not happen vs atlanta. also, before you talk about how good the seattle secondary is you cannot forget what is needed up front with their their 4 man pass rush coming from their D line. seattle ranks pretty average in the nfl in terms of sacks registered with 36, but they actually are more built on generating pressure and QB hits, and they did a solid, not spectacular job of it. they rotate their defensive linemen in all positions and they are pretty balanced in generating QB hits and pressures. the problem is that they lost their #1 pass rusher chris clemons and this is a huge loss. this guy is the most underrated pass rusher in the nfl with 11 sacks, 11 QB hits, and 37 QB pressures. the reason bruce irvin has had such a good rookie season as a pass rusher is because opposing O lines would eventually have to double team clemons midway through games due to his ability to dominate off the edge and irving would then have a much better opportunity to get to the QB. now you have irvin having to convert to an almost everydown pass rusher and match him up with bookend red bryant, who is a pretty mediocre pass rusher. irving is used to being a situational player and im not sure how he will fare when he has to play twice as many snaps as he is accustomed to doing. i mention irving a lot only because he is the argument most people will make when i mention clemons getting hurt and how much its not a big deal.
lets not forget the falcons O line has had a major bounce back this season after a very disappointing drop off last season. left tackle sam baker is having a career year and right tackle tyson clabo is solid as usually. i dont think seattle will be able to create enough pressure up the middle with their interior defensive linemen. i did mention that they have decent pass rushing D tackles, but they suffered another big blow to their defensive line a few weeks back when they lost their best pass rushing D tackle in jason jones. jones was a rotational lineman that was built more on rushing the passer and his loss will also make this line very THIN. also, you have a much more stable interior falcon O line this season, with their only liability being at right guard with peter konz. so before everyone continues to salivate over this seattle secondary, look at every matchup in this game at every angle first.
next you will see a rookie QB on the road for the 2nd straight week vs one of the best defensive coordinators in the nfl in mike nolan. nolan has had 2 weeks to devise a gameplan to do 2 things: 1)confuse the hell out of wilson and 2)contain, not stop, marshawn lynch. the falcons will really need to play disciplined football here because they are pretty weak on paper with their run D, ranking 21st and giving up 4.8 ypc. i actually expect lynch to have a productive game at least to begin with. but, i feel that atlants will take a 10 point lead in this game late in the 2nd qrtr and wilson will have to throw just a little more. what i like is the fact that the falcon D has experience vs mobile Qb's like wilson, in that they play cam newton twice every year and even played RG3 earleir in the season. what i really like here is the fact that mike nolan is going to throw different formations at wilson and display different coverages and will really throw this kid off. did anyone watch the week 2 monday night game vs the broncos? peyton manning had no idea what he was looking at and it took him 2 1/2 qrts to figure it out. will rookie wilson figure it out? we will see.
i consider the pass offense of seattle and the pass defense of the falcons to be a neutral battle. the seattle O line is actually a pretty stable unit and they are very strong on their interior O line. the pass rush of the falcons is nothing to brag about and their pass defense as a whole is very weak on paper. the seattle receiver really do not concern me here and I just feel the falcons can step up their pass defense when they need to. i mean think about it, if potent pass offenses like the saints, giants, and lions cannot expose this pass defense and win the game late during this season, do you think the 29th ranked seattle pass offense will?
lastly, lets just look at what the falcons have accomplished this year. before this season they were known as 1) a DOME team 2) a team that could not beat the SAINTS 3) a "1 and done" playoff team. well, when i see a team going 6-2 on the road then i throw the dome team aspect out. when i see a team that takes down their nemesis in the saints late in the season and build their confidence close to the playoffs, im feeling better. remember, the saints shattered the falcons confidence last season when they destroyed them right at the end of the season. remember 2 years ago when the falcons were 13-3 and the #1 seed? they played a monday night game vs the saints in a game they did not need to win but a game the saints needed to win to get a playoff berth. the falcons played that game like it was the playoffs because they wanted to get that playoff swagger and feel unbeatable at home. well, the saints won that game and created what i feel was the demise of the falcons that playoff season with the packers coming in and smashing them.
the "1 and done" reputation ends for the falcons on sunday
BET IT B!
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