Week 4, not really feeling it the matchups. There are a few decent ones that have my attention. Might possibly scale back my plays this week
Let's start with TNF
Quick thoughts: Browns starting center in concussion protocol, might not pass in time to play, right guard also banged up might also not play.
Watson is 0-3 lifetime against Steelers however all on the road in Pittsburgh
Rodgers is 4-1 against Browns. First loss last year at Cleveland.
Cleveland hasn't lost a Thursday night home game since 2008 where they have won 9 straight TNF home games
4 of those 9 home TNF games were against Steelers.
Browns have won last 4 home games against Steelers since 2022
Only 3 of those games played in Cleveland were decided by a field goal or less since 2008, average margin of victory about 9.5 pts so 7 to 10 on average.
Health and line protection may be the deciding factors on a short week.
Sip on that plus money honey!
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Overall: 18-16
Week 4, not really feeling it the matchups. There are a few decent ones that have my attention. Might possibly scale back my plays this week
Let's start with TNF
Quick thoughts: Browns starting center in concussion protocol, might not pass in time to play, right guard also banged up might also not play.
Watson is 0-3 lifetime against Steelers however all on the road in Pittsburgh
Rodgers is 4-1 against Browns. First loss last year at Cleveland.
Cleveland hasn't lost a Thursday night home game since 2008 where they have won 9 straight TNF home games
4 of those 9 home TNF games were against Steelers.
Browns have won last 4 home games against Steelers since 2022
Only 3 of those games played in Cleveland were decided by a field goal or less since 2008, average margin of victory about 9.5 pts so 7 to 10 on average.
Health and line protection may be the deciding factors on a short week.
1-1 ats on Jags games so far, will ride them again. Bengals will put up a challenge, but Jaguars are the much better team respectfully. Last season's matchup was a shootout, expecting nothing less again and it will probably be another close game. this time Trev will outlast Burrow and get his first win against Cincy he is currently 0-3 vs them.
Sip on that plus money honey!
Play #1:
Jaguars +2.5(-103)
Jags ml +124 *small*
1-1 ats on Jags games so far, will ride them again. Bengals will put up a challenge, but Jaguars are the much better team respectfully. Last season's matchup was a shootout, expecting nothing less again and it will probably be another close game. this time Trev will outlast Burrow and get his first win against Cincy he is currently 0-3 vs them.
I’m with you on taking the points, but I’d be careful about laying much juice if that number moves to -3. Jacksonville’s run defense and pass-rush matchup should matter more than the straight-up records, while Cincinnati’s pace can create a late backdoor. I’d keep the moneyline as a smaller add-on and avoid tying it to the spread in a parlay.
-103 is perfect. If the number moves to Jaguars +3 then surely the juice will be -115 to -120 which is what I don't want, hence I am on Jaguars +2.5. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if this number goes down to +2 to be honest.
Moneyline is a separate value addition play I don't combine them into parlay. Thanks for the reminder anyway and GL
Sip on that plus money honey!
Quote Originally Posted by BetAlertorg:
I’m with you on taking the points, but I’d be careful about laying much juice if that number moves to -3. Jacksonville’s run defense and pass-rush matchup should matter more than the straight-up records, while Cincinnati’s pace can create a late backdoor. I’d keep the moneyline as a smaller add-on and avoid tying it to the spread in a parlay.
-103 is perfect. If the number moves to Jaguars +3 then surely the juice will be -115 to -120 which is what I don't want, hence I am on Jaguars +2.5. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if this number goes down to +2 to be honest.
Moneyline is a separate value addition play I don't combine them into parlay. Thanks for the reminder anyway and GL
@Digitalkarma Good luck. Im with you on the matchups this week, nothing I feel very strongly about and not much to like
Good luck Yana
time to do some diggin'. a little bit more effort this week
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
On the dvoa recap podcast, Aaron Schatz said that after the Patriots game, the Jags are now the #2 defense, and #6 offense. He didn't mention the Bengals.
Sounds about right. Their defense was surprisingly good last season and seems they have build on it. I'm guessing Bengals D will be somewhere close to the middle of the pack
Sip on that plus money honey!
Quote Originally Posted by Yanasaur:
@Digitalkarma Good luck. Im with you on the matchups this week, nothing I feel very strongly about and not much to like
Good luck Yana
time to do some diggin'. a little bit more effort this week
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
On the dvoa recap podcast, Aaron Schatz said that after the Patriots game, the Jags are now the #2 defense, and #6 offense. He didn't mention the Bengals.
Sounds about right. Their defense was surprisingly good last season and seems they have build on it. I'm guessing Bengals D will be somewhere close to the middle of the pack
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