The odds are against the Dallas Cowboys right out of the regular season gates to upset the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Alot of things will have to go right for the Cowboys to make the Bucs lose or (to all the gambling degens out there) not cover the effin game! In order for that to happen: Tom Brady will have to play one of the worst games of his career; Bucs defense will have to be so unfocused and perhaps wasted from partying the night before with the stripper; and Bruce Arians playcalling would have to stink badly enough that his head is so far up his ass to already be thinking about tattooing another Super Bowl logo on his arm!! But I digress!
While it's possible the Bucs could be overconfident and look past the bumbling and stumbling Cowboys, I am betting it doesn't happen under Brady's watch. First of all, the Bucs got embarrassed on the road to the Saints last year on opening week and I don't see them dropping another week 1 game. Secondly, Brady has only lost 3 home openers in his 20 year career. The last loss was against the Chiefs at New England as defending champs. Other than that, Brady has won comfortably in that situation with 4 of those 5 wins by 7 or more points which translates to an 5-1 SU, 3-2-1 or 3-1-2 ATS depending which line you got. Speaking of which I don't really need to waste extra space talking about the defending super bowl champs week 1 trend. It's already common knowledge and a proven winning trend but I have other reasons why I like the Bucs on opening night..
Now for some further analysis, I took a look at the potential week 1 starters for each team, more specifically on the Cowboys roster since the Bucs roster is essentially intact from last season. What I found is the Cowboys will have an uphill battle to make this game competitive or close.
Sip on that plus money honey!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The odds are against the Dallas Cowboys right out of the regular season gates to upset the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Alot of things will have to go right for the Cowboys to make the Bucs lose or (to all the gambling degens out there) not cover the effin game! In order for that to happen: Tom Brady will have to play one of the worst games of his career; Bucs defense will have to be so unfocused and perhaps wasted from partying the night before with the stripper; and Bruce Arians playcalling would have to stink badly enough that his head is so far up his ass to already be thinking about tattooing another Super Bowl logo on his arm!! But I digress!
While it's possible the Bucs could be overconfident and look past the bumbling and stumbling Cowboys, I am betting it doesn't happen under Brady's watch. First of all, the Bucs got embarrassed on the road to the Saints last year on opening week and I don't see them dropping another week 1 game. Secondly, Brady has only lost 3 home openers in his 20 year career. The last loss was against the Chiefs at New England as defending champs. Other than that, Brady has won comfortably in that situation with 4 of those 5 wins by 7 or more points which translates to an 5-1 SU, 3-2-1 or 3-1-2 ATS depending which line you got. Speaking of which I don't really need to waste extra space talking about the defending super bowl champs week 1 trend. It's already common knowledge and a proven winning trend but I have other reasons why I like the Bucs on opening night..
Now for some further analysis, I took a look at the potential week 1 starters for each team, more specifically on the Cowboys roster since the Bucs roster is essentially intact from last season. What I found is the Cowboys will have an uphill battle to make this game competitive or close.
Dak Prescott, nearly 1 year since his gruesome leg injury, will have his hands full going against that defensive front seven of the Bucs littered with 3 all-pros and a couple other studs deserving of that recognition. Since Dak hasn't participated in any contact drills in camp, he is going to have to knock off that rust and get his body up to speed but this won't be the ideal defense to do it on. Fortunately for Dak he still has a decent O-line to protect him, although that comes with a caveat which is.. only if they can stay healthy. Tyron Smith and Zack Martin are starting to get up there in age. Lately, they seem to be one play from major injury and have missed a combined 28 games in the past 3 seasons. That doesn't sound promising when they're going up against a defense that was top 5 in sacks and getting pressure to the QB. I don't think Cowboys O-line will be ready.
Then there is Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke sounds like a changed man, saying all the right things and lost some weight but let's see if he will be up to the task of taking on the #1 ranked rushing defense from last season. Zeke had career lows across the board. Of course that could be partially attributed to the O-line struggles they had. Anyway, if Zeke can't get going again, then that is going to put pressure on Dak to do a little too much in his first game back.
However, the Cowboys offense are the least of my worries. I think their passing offense is still capable of putting up points when their O-line can stay healthy. It's not like Bucs secondary are world beaters either. What has me concerned about the Cowboys is their defense.
The Cowboys may have 7 or 8 potential new week 1 starters on defense, and a new defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn. I expect some growing pains within that group and they're already been hit early with injuries to their defensive line, a couple of them unlikely to suit up for opening day. The X-factor of that defense will undoubtedly be the performance of rookie linebacker Micah Parsons. He has the most potential to be Cowboys game changer on defense. I love the kids enthusiasm in wanting to go after it on every play. I think Brady wont shy away from testing him and use Micah's overaggressiveness to his advantage. I predict Micah will have an up and down performance in week 1. The Cowboys secondary will be the area I will be paying the most attention to, going against that Buccaneer recieving group. Anthony Brown, Damontae Kazee(when he is healthy he can make some splash plays), Donovan Wilson, and Trevon Diggs(their new #1 hotshot corner) doesn't strike much fear with this lineup. The Cowboys defense may have potential to be better as season moves along under Dan Quinn but right now their defense isn't at full strength and have some unproven players on that side of the ball. Quinn won't be turning the Cowboys defense into the next Legion of Boom anytime soon!
Final thought: I think Bucs front seven is a mismatch and will wreak more havoc on the opposing offense than the Cowboys front seven will. Bucs have Brady and too many offensive weapons for the Cowboys defense to deal with. That will be the difference of the game. Bucs -7 doesn't do them justice. I have Bucs winning by double digits in the end.
Final score: Bucs 34, Cowboys 17
The Play: Bucs -7
Sip on that plus money honey!
3
Dak Prescott, nearly 1 year since his gruesome leg injury, will have his hands full going against that defensive front seven of the Bucs littered with 3 all-pros and a couple other studs deserving of that recognition. Since Dak hasn't participated in any contact drills in camp, he is going to have to knock off that rust and get his body up to speed but this won't be the ideal defense to do it on. Fortunately for Dak he still has a decent O-line to protect him, although that comes with a caveat which is.. only if they can stay healthy. Tyron Smith and Zack Martin are starting to get up there in age. Lately, they seem to be one play from major injury and have missed a combined 28 games in the past 3 seasons. That doesn't sound promising when they're going up against a defense that was top 5 in sacks and getting pressure to the QB. I don't think Cowboys O-line will be ready.
Then there is Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke sounds like a changed man, saying all the right things and lost some weight but let's see if he will be up to the task of taking on the #1 ranked rushing defense from last season. Zeke had career lows across the board. Of course that could be partially attributed to the O-line struggles they had. Anyway, if Zeke can't get going again, then that is going to put pressure on Dak to do a little too much in his first game back.
However, the Cowboys offense are the least of my worries. I think their passing offense is still capable of putting up points when their O-line can stay healthy. It's not like Bucs secondary are world beaters either. What has me concerned about the Cowboys is their defense.
The Cowboys may have 7 or 8 potential new week 1 starters on defense, and a new defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn. I expect some growing pains within that group and they're already been hit early with injuries to their defensive line, a couple of them unlikely to suit up for opening day. The X-factor of that defense will undoubtedly be the performance of rookie linebacker Micah Parsons. He has the most potential to be Cowboys game changer on defense. I love the kids enthusiasm in wanting to go after it on every play. I think Brady wont shy away from testing him and use Micah's overaggressiveness to his advantage. I predict Micah will have an up and down performance in week 1. The Cowboys secondary will be the area I will be paying the most attention to, going against that Buccaneer recieving group. Anthony Brown, Damontae Kazee(when he is healthy he can make some splash plays), Donovan Wilson, and Trevon Diggs(their new #1 hotshot corner) doesn't strike much fear with this lineup. The Cowboys defense may have potential to be better as season moves along under Dan Quinn but right now their defense isn't at full strength and have some unproven players on that side of the ball. Quinn won't be turning the Cowboys defense into the next Legion of Boom anytime soon!
Final thought: I think Bucs front seven is a mismatch and will wreak more havoc on the opposing offense than the Cowboys front seven will. Bucs have Brady and too many offensive weapons for the Cowboys defense to deal with. That will be the difference of the game. Bucs -7 doesn't do them justice. I have Bucs winning by double digits in the end.
Good assessment DK. Not the best matchup for Dak to find out how healthy he is and to shake off the rust. The BUCS front 7 is stout. Fast and aggressive linebackers. Elliott will need a big game, he's capable. His running style is similar to Dalvin Cook who rushed for over 100 yards last season vs TB. But as you mentioned, it's the Cowboys defense going up against a talented Bucs offense, having had a full camp coming in, that is the biggest problem. New faces, new DC, it takes time to gel, and Arians and OC Byron Leftwich will look for and find their weaknesses. Remember Tampa has all 22 returning starters, a rarity these days, especially for a Superbowl champion. Too many veterans on this team for the dreaded "Superbowl hangover," agreed Bucs should win by DD
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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Good assessment DK. Not the best matchup for Dak to find out how healthy he is and to shake off the rust. The BUCS front 7 is stout. Fast and aggressive linebackers. Elliott will need a big game, he's capable. His running style is similar to Dalvin Cook who rushed for over 100 yards last season vs TB. But as you mentioned, it's the Cowboys defense going up against a talented Bucs offense, having had a full camp coming in, that is the biggest problem. New faces, new DC, it takes time to gel, and Arians and OC Byron Leftwich will look for and find their weaknesses. Remember Tampa has all 22 returning starters, a rarity these days, especially for a Superbowl champion. Too many veterans on this team for the dreaded "Superbowl hangover," agreed Bucs should win by DD
Good assessment DK. Not the best matchup for Dak to find out how healthy he is and to shake off the rust. The BUCS front 7 is stout. Fast and aggressive linebackers. Elliott will need a big game, he's capable. His running style is similar to Dalvin Cook who rushed for over 100 yards last season vs TB. But as you mentioned, it's the Cowboys defense going up against a talented Bucs offense, having had a full camp coming in, that is the biggest problem. New faces, new DC, it takes time to gel, and Arians and OC Byron Leftwich will look for and find their weaknesses. Remember Tampa has all 22 returning starters, a rarity these days, especially for a Superbowl champion. Too many veterans on this team for the dreaded "Superbowl hangover," agreed Bucs should win by DD
My original lean was Cowboys or oh that seems like alot of points but after further analysis my line has it higher than the -6, -6.5 that the books opened up at. I tried to find reasons to back the underdog but I can't find any here
Cowboys got a tough two game road slate before their first home opener divisional game. Could possibly see them go 0-2 to start the season
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
Good assessment DK. Not the best matchup for Dak to find out how healthy he is and to shake off the rust. The BUCS front 7 is stout. Fast and aggressive linebackers. Elliott will need a big game, he's capable. His running style is similar to Dalvin Cook who rushed for over 100 yards last season vs TB. But as you mentioned, it's the Cowboys defense going up against a talented Bucs offense, having had a full camp coming in, that is the biggest problem. New faces, new DC, it takes time to gel, and Arians and OC Byron Leftwich will look for and find their weaknesses. Remember Tampa has all 22 returning starters, a rarity these days, especially for a Superbowl champion. Too many veterans on this team for the dreaded "Superbowl hangover," agreed Bucs should win by DD
My original lean was Cowboys or oh that seems like alot of points but after further analysis my line has it higher than the -6, -6.5 that the books opened up at. I tried to find reasons to back the underdog but I can't find any here
Cowboys got a tough two game road slate before their first home opener divisional game. Could possibly see them go 0-2 to start the season
@Digitalkarma Its crazy how Dak will have no preseason live action coming off that injury...
Sounds like he is confident (or maybe cocky to us lol) that he is ready to go without any team scrimmages . Maybe he will play "inspired" cuz of the stuff he had to deal with last year with his injury and his brother. I'm sure there will be some that will bet on that reason based on the "emotional" factor.
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Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:
@Digitalkarma Its crazy how Dak will have no preseason live action coming off that injury...
Sounds like he is confident (or maybe cocky to us lol) that he is ready to go without any team scrimmages . Maybe he will play "inspired" cuz of the stuff he had to deal with last year with his injury and his brother. I'm sure there will be some that will bet on that reason based on the "emotional" factor.
Cowboys can cover one way, the backdoor cover, i.e., Bucs up 31-10 4th qtr, 2 late TDs by the Boyz, 31-24. As close as it will be. I'm seeing -7.5. Would buy it down to 7 to be on the safe side.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
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Cowboys can cover one way, the backdoor cover, i.e., Bucs up 31-10 4th qtr, 2 late TDs by the Boyz, 31-24. As close as it will be. I'm seeing -7.5. Would buy it down to 7 to be on the safe side.
Cowboys can cover one way, the backdoor cover, i.e., Bucs up 31-10 4th qtr, 2 late TDs by the Boyz, 31-24. As close as it will be. I'm seeing -7.5. Would buy it down to 7 to be on the safe side.
It's possible, they've taken the foot off the gas before. I give it a 30% chance of it happening.
Most shops opened at -6.5 and raised it up to -7.5 currently. William Hill was the only one I saw open at -6 and had it at -7 for a bit but now it's -8. They went from a bargain to now a luxury strangely enough lol
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Quote Originally Posted by mrusso:
Cowboys can cover one way, the backdoor cover, i.e., Bucs up 31-10 4th qtr, 2 late TDs by the Boyz, 31-24. As close as it will be. I'm seeing -7.5. Would buy it down to 7 to be on the safe side.
It's possible, they've taken the foot off the gas before. I give it a 30% chance of it happening.
Most shops opened at -6.5 and raised it up to -7.5 currently. William Hill was the only one I saw open at -6 and had it at -7 for a bit but now it's -8. They went from a bargain to now a luxury strangely enough lol
Cowboys are in shambles. Take bucs ML for a few units and start the season off with a W. Nfl is one long session. GL and let's get this bag
I wouldn't say they are in shambles, they have the talent to win their division but they are in a bad spot early on because they're not at full strength. The team has a bit of an identity crisis going in and need to figure out who they are on defense. Mike McCarthy strikes me as an uninspiring coach. I don't think he'll be ready for opening night
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Quote Originally Posted by St21forlife:
Cowboys are in shambles. Take bucs ML for a few units and start the season off with a W. Nfl is one long session. GL and let's get this bag
I wouldn't say they are in shambles, they have the talent to win their division but they are in a bad spot early on because they're not at full strength. The team has a bit of an identity crisis going in and need to figure out who they are on defense. Mike McCarthy strikes me as an uninspiring coach. I don't think he'll be ready for opening night
havent heard much about dak progressing thru the shoulder pain is he a full go at practice now? tampa should roll, only argument is SB hangover
It's definitely the big question mark heading into the match. Seems like he is at practice throwing off to the side to the recievers but haven't heard anything about full contact drills against their defense ,unless I missed something...
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Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
havent heard much about dak progressing thru the shoulder pain is he a full go at practice now? tampa should roll, only argument is SB hangover
It's definitely the big question mark heading into the match. Seems like he is at practice throwing off to the side to the recievers but haven't heard anything about full contact drills against their defense ,unless I missed something...
@Digitalkarma ya gonna wait til closer to game, probably take bucs ML or alternate spread, hate -7.5 lines
I know wish I got it earlier at -6.5 but it was way too early. Now with about 2 weeks closer to gameday laying a TD and a half with Brady still isn't a big deal for me, now if it was a double digit spread I would think twice. Good thoughts my friend
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Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
@Digitalkarma ya gonna wait til closer to game, probably take bucs ML or alternate spread, hate -7.5 lines
I know wish I got it earlier at -6.5 but it was way too early. Now with about 2 weeks closer to gameday laying a TD and a half with Brady still isn't a big deal for me, now if it was a double digit spread I would think twice. Good thoughts my friend
Im liking this teaser. Bucs -1_Rams pk. Stafford hasn't beat Chi in what 3 years..he wants them bad wk 1. Chi is a mess, then there's Dalton..lol. New team, no chemistry, no 0-line. Rams play defense @ home, playmakers at WR.
GK_DK
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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Im liking this teaser. Bucs -1_Rams pk. Stafford hasn't beat Chi in what 3 years..he wants them bad wk 1. Chi is a mess, then there's Dalton..lol. New team, no chemistry, no 0-line. Rams play defense @ home, playmakers at WR.
Im liking this teaser. Bucs -1_Rams pk. Stafford hasn't beat Chi in what 3 years..he wants them bad wk 1. Chi is a mess, then there's Dalton..lol. New team, no chemistry, no 0-line. Rams play defense @ home, playmakers at WR. GK_DK
I'm hesitant to lay the points with the Rams but I like the tease most definitely. I think they should win it. Dalton is a pick magnet lol
GL this season Wize
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Im liking this teaser. Bucs -1_Rams pk. Stafford hasn't beat Chi in what 3 years..he wants them bad wk 1. Chi is a mess, then there's Dalton..lol. New team, no chemistry, no 0-line. Rams play defense @ home, playmakers at WR. GK_DK
I'm hesitant to lay the points with the Rams but I like the tease most definitely. I think they should win it. Dalton is a pick magnet lol
Fading the Cowboys was a great money maker last season ( 5-11 ATS ) ..They could be even worse IMO .. This might be the worst matchup for a banged up QB playing behind a bad O Line ... Oddsmakers appear to be begging for Cowboys homer money with the line on the other side of 7 ... Best of luck Brother
If the Cowboy name wasn't attached to the spread this line could easily be -10.5 lol
BOL double
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Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:
Fading the Cowboys was a great money maker last season ( 5-11 ATS ) ..They could be even worse IMO .. This might be the worst matchup for a banged up QB playing behind a bad O Line ... Oddsmakers appear to be begging for Cowboys homer money with the line on the other side of 7 ... Best of luck Brother
If the Cowboy name wasn't attached to the spread this line could easily be -10.5 lol
@Digitalkarma Heads up Twin Parlay. Week #1 Solid read through out.... The 'whales' of Tampa Bay & LA are pounding this Twin play unmercifully. Including yours truly. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -278 ML vs DAL L.A. Rams -340 ML vs CHI wager:6.2u payout:$1088 (CircaSportsBookLV)
thank you, good luck on your parlay
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:
@Digitalkarma Heads up Twin Parlay. Week #1 Solid read through out.... The 'whales' of Tampa Bay & LA are pounding this Twin play unmercifully. Including yours truly. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -278 ML vs DAL L.A. Rams -340 ML vs CHI wager:6.2u payout:$1088 (CircaSportsBookLV)
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