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Cowboys / Bucs - Wildcard Monday....

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Legend
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Posted: #51

Quote Originally Posted by smellychews:

Storyline wise, it makes sense for Brady to win this game lose a very exciting game against the 49ers, or even pull off a huge upset... Purdy beat Brady in his first NFL game he played.. That's the storyline they will go with.. NFL must want this matchup way more than the Cowboys 49ers

Go find one of the hundreds of conspiracy threads here.

Not this one.

Thanks.

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Prospect
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Posted: #52

@vanzack - Just popping in to say thank you for all you do for this form. One of the real ones! 

Curious to hear your SB prediction? 

 
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Posted: #53

Boyz win and cover here.  Jerry, NFL and Vegas both happy. Dak gonna play much better.

 
Legend
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Posted: #54

The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS the past two seasons following a loss. There's a few savage beatings in there...

 

2021

They lost 31-29 at the Bucs and then won 27-17 at the Rams

They lost 30-16 vs. the Broncos and then won 43-3 vs. the Falcons

They lost 19-9 at the Chiefs and then lost 36-33 four days later on Thanksgiving vs. the Raiders

After losing to the Raiders, they won 27-17 at the Saints

They lost 25-22 to the Cardinals and then won 51-26 at the Eagles

 

2022

They lost 19-3 vs. the Bucs and then won 20-17 vs. the Bengals (as 8-point dogs)

They lost 26-17 vs. the Eagles and then won 24-6 vs. the Lions

They lost 31-28 at the Packers and then won 40-3 at the Vikings

They lost 40-34 at the Jaguars and then won 40-34 vs. the Eagles

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #55

@MrBator

 I held that one back all week from the forum. Good stuff though, let em know.

Good Luck peace_5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #56

Dovetailing off this analysis, I like Brady over 42.5 attempts.  He's 11-6 to the over at that line.

 
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Posted: #57

well since you only want 3-2 sop far in playoffs, I have more confidence in my Brady bet....

 
Legend
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Posted: #58

Great work as always bro!! Hate to be on the other side with TB. BOL bro 

 
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Posted: #59

@MrBator

@undermysac

This has been on my mind as well, as I've mentioned it to a few people that I've talked to recently.  Dallas typically bounces back pretty well, and this is a huge situation.  Most of what I've been hearing revolves around how bad Dallas played last week and how great TB played.  Too much recency bias.

 
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Posted: #60

You do fine when you just stick to your numbers.   SD write-up was atrocious,  awful,   Hi toots!  
Dont try to impress just spit your number based picks out, but leave the football handicapping to the pros.   

Remingtonan_woo

 
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Posted: #61

clover Just hoping I don’t wonder where Cooper Rush is like every time I see Dak play.

 

 
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Posted: #62

Some Bucs backers point to Brady's 7-0 record vs Dallas like it is an overwhelming phenomenon that won't be broken.

 
Here are some Brady records already broken this year
89-0 when leading by 17 points--- cincy won 34-23.
2022- first time Brady team lost eight games in a season.
2022- Brady loses three games in a row for the first time since 2001!
218-0- first time in Brady's career that his team had a seven point lead in the final minute of the game and lost (vs Cle).
 
A 7-0 record  against Dallas (5 of which were with perennial powerhouse patriots)  is just one more waiting to fall in my opinion.
 

 

 
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Posted: #63

@Paal

 He almost always throws 2 picks a game so this wouldn't be unusual. 

 
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Posted: #64

Nice job VAN. 

 

TONIGHTS game is so tuff for myself. Have +15 Bucs with an open parlay but for baby $.

leaning Bucs +3 (b .5) 

WHY SO SERIOUS
 
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Posted: #65

Reason cowgirls had a crap game against Washington is because it’s a new qb starting for wash there ass no tapes of the guys plus wash was out they treat it like their super bowl 

 

the boys won’t make that mistake again 

 
Legend
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Posted: #66

@vanzack peace_5

@undermysac peace_5

goodpost #15 & # 54

Again I'm sifting through multiple threads about politisizing storylines on tonight's game . . . really?confused

new_smh

 

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
 
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Posted: #67

thumbs_up Nice work…! 

 
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Posted: #68

Quote Originally Posted by soup-can:

Van, sorry if in the past that a called you vansmack or whatever synonym it was.  But I kept it non political.  there is: hang back backpack callback drawback fanny pack fastback flipjack Hangs back  hardback jam-pack knapsack its more the kid side of things.
FYI.....His all time favorite is MANSACK peace_5att_please

 
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Posted: #69

b o l

p a l

 
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Posted: #70

As always, great job Van! Lots of respect man. Keep doing what your doing - got a few more weeks to grab that paper...  peace_5

Don't understand why everyone comes in to your threads and hijack it with anything and everything other than meaningful information regarding the game... Incredible. confused

On the Boys as well. Cheers.

 
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Posted: #71

@vanzack - quick question, respect your input. Long time lurker, tried to create a thread but just joined and said I needed to wait 24 hours. Lol.

Aight need a little advice from the family here. Over the weekend, played some teasers, did very well, but I have one pending that has an "open" spot to fill that is leftover from a six team 13.5 point teaser.

Here's the situation. Let's say I've got $5k at risk to win $6500 of a six teamer. As of right now, five are winners but I need to fill that last and final sixth spot to cash or lose the $5k.

As of now, thinking either Dallas at +10.5 or Kansas City +4.5. I hate the fact Dallas is on the road, Dak scares me when it comes to pressure, not to mention you've got Brady on the other side who owns Dallas. Now, I can pass on Dallas and take KC at home next weekend against the Jags at +4.5. However, will KC come out flat after the two weeks off? On paper you'd think KC should and would cover fairly easy here at home against Jacksonville. Or do I pass on these two games and look elsewhere such as the other matchups?

Lastly, say I take Dallas +10.5 tonight for the final spot. Wise to hedge Tampa +2.5 for $5k? Best case and absolute best case would be Tampa wins by 3-10 points which means the Dallas +10.5 covers and I get extremely lucky hitting both. Worse case Dallas wins by 3+ or Tampa wins by 11+ and one of the wagers wins and the other loses.

Looking for your thoughts and advice on the best possible move here. Thank you all for the input.

 
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Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by FadeThePublic69:

Tomorrow is MLK day. That’s all I am gonna say. If you know, you know

 

Let's here this crackpot conspiracy  I am waiting.......

 
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Posted: #73

vanzack peace_5

 
Prospect
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by bucsfanML:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: This one is pretty simple to me.... The Bucs pass defense vs the Cowboys passing offense... The Bucs pass defense has consistently been in the bottom third of the NFL almost all season.  And the trend is downward.  In the trailing 7 weeks, they are 30th in the NFL (adjusted) against the pass.  Dak makes mistakes when he is pressured, and there is tight coverage (sounds obvious, but more than average).  The Bucs hurry % (defensive QB pressure stat) is 28th in NFL. Put that together, and you should see a Dak that can thrive with time, and open receivers.  Once the Cowboys hit some runs - it compounds the problem for the Bucs - but in this case - I actually think they will come out passing and be successful which will open the run game.  The median number of punts for the Cowboys in my simulation is 1.4.  That is crazy low.   Brady has had recent success hitting long balls, because he has dinked and dunked all year and nobody was prepared for it.  The Panthers game is a prime example.  The Cowboys will be ready here - and I expect the Bucs to be pretty one dimensional.  The Bucs have a non-existent run game, and so the Cowboys will likely be able to drop a lot of coverage and are very likely to be able to get Brady off of his spot with just 4. I think the Cowboys get out early, the Bucs will have to throw to catch up - and the Cowboys will be able to mix the run in in the second half to bury the Bucs. If I were betting a total (I am not) - it would be the over.  Cowboys win something like 38-21.   Rachaard white will have 100+ rush yards tomorrow I think

 

what kind of odds will you give me White doesn't get 100?

 
 
Legend
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Posted: #75

Quote Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:

Quote Originally Posted by soup-can: Van, sorry if in the past that a called you vansmack or whatever synonym it was.  But I kept it non political.  there is: hang back backpack callback drawback fanny pack fastback flipjack Hangs back  hardback jam-pack knapsack its more the kid side of things. FYI.....His all time favorite is MANSACK

Definitely 100%

an_roll_laugh

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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