Here's the thing about "trend" stats - and if this sounds repeated - it is - I say this here all the time...
Isolated trends are not important to me - in fact I avoid them - unless I can draw a causation or narrative to something.
Keep in mind, when you hear or see these trends - they are backtested and every other trend that is found to either be neutral or favor the other team is ignored. So posting 5 trends that support your team, while ignoring the 95 that dont is noise to me. Unless the 5 trends you post have something to do with causation or a narrative that is meaty - they are just noise.
I dont really care what Tom Brady did in New England. I do know that he is declining, and cant make the throws he used to make. Can he come out and throw 30 for 30 tonight? Yes. But no matter who he beat in the 2000's, it means nothing about tonight. I stated earlier that recency is big in my evaluations - like the last 6 games - so I really dont care what he did 600 games ago.
Just one mans opinion.
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3
Here's the thing about "trend" stats - and if this sounds repeated - it is - I say this here all the time...
Isolated trends are not important to me - in fact I avoid them - unless I can draw a causation or narrative to something.
Keep in mind, when you hear or see these trends - they are backtested and every other trend that is found to either be neutral or favor the other team is ignored. So posting 5 trends that support your team, while ignoring the 95 that dont is noise to me. Unless the 5 trends you post have something to do with causation or a narrative that is meaty - they are just noise.
I dont really care what Tom Brady did in New England. I do know that he is declining, and cant make the throws he used to make. Can he come out and throw 30 for 30 tonight? Yes. But no matter who he beat in the 2000's, it means nothing about tonight. I stated earlier that recency is big in my evaluations - like the last 6 games - so I really dont care what he did 600 games ago.
The Bucs pass defense vs the Cowboys passing offense...
The Bucs pass defense has consistently been in the bottom third of the NFL almost all season. And the trend is downward. In the trailing 7 weeks, they are 30th in the NFL (adjusted) against the pass. Dak makes mistakes when he is pressured, and there is tight coverage (sounds obvious, but more than average). The Bucs hurry % (defensive QB pressure stat) is 28th in NFL.
Put that together, and you should see a Dak that can thrive with time, and open receivers. Once the Cowboys hit some runs - it compounds the problem for the Bucs - but in this case - I actually think they will come out passing and be successful which will open the run game. The median number of punts for the Cowboys in my simulation is 1.4. That is crazy low.
Brady has had recent success hitting long balls, because he has dinked and dunked all year and nobody was prepared for it. The Panthers game is a prime example. The Cowboys will be ready here - and I expect the Bucs to be pretty one dimensional. The Bucs have a non-existent run game, and so the Cowboys will likely be able to drop a lot of coverage and are very likely to be able to get Brady off of his spot with just 4.
I think the Cowboys get out early, the Bucs will have to throw to catch up - and the Cowboys will be able to mix the run in in the second half to bury the Bucs.
If I were betting a total (I am not) - it would be the over. Cowboys win something like 38-21.
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2
This one is pretty simple to me....
The Bucs pass defense vs the Cowboys passing offense...
The Bucs pass defense has consistently been in the bottom third of the NFL almost all season. And the trend is downward. In the trailing 7 weeks, they are 30th in the NFL (adjusted) against the pass. Dak makes mistakes when he is pressured, and there is tight coverage (sounds obvious, but more than average). The Bucs hurry % (defensive QB pressure stat) is 28th in NFL.
Put that together, and you should see a Dak that can thrive with time, and open receivers. Once the Cowboys hit some runs - it compounds the problem for the Bucs - but in this case - I actually think they will come out passing and be successful which will open the run game. The median number of punts for the Cowboys in my simulation is 1.4. That is crazy low.
Brady has had recent success hitting long balls, because he has dinked and dunked all year and nobody was prepared for it. The Panthers game is a prime example. The Cowboys will be ready here - and I expect the Bucs to be pretty one dimensional. The Bucs have a non-existent run game, and so the Cowboys will likely be able to drop a lot of coverage and are very likely to be able to get Brady off of his spot with just 4.
I think the Cowboys get out early, the Bucs will have to throw to catch up - and the Cowboys will be able to mix the run in in the second half to bury the Bucs.
If I were betting a total (I am not) - it would be the over. Cowboys win something like 38-21.
With you on cowboys. But any thought on Jensen being back and the OL being healthy. This would give Brady more time and not get him off his spot as much. Your angle here is what I used betting Rams last year over Bucs. To me it’s a similar matchup. But can Dallas get to Brady?
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@vanzack
With you on cowboys. But any thought on Jensen being back and the OL being healthy. This would give Brady more time and not get him off his spot as much. Your angle here is what I used betting Rams last year over Bucs. To me it’s a similar matchup. But can Dallas get to Brady?
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I'm really not liking these missed extra points. Don't worry. Todd Bowles has his arms crossed all ready, and is starring off into space.
Got to love that time out there by Tampa Bay. I'm not sure what they're thinking
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I'm really not liking these missed extra points. Don't worry. Todd Bowles has his arms crossed all ready, and is starring off into space.
Got to love that time out there by Tampa Bay. I'm not sure what they're thinking
This one is pretty simple to me.... The Bucs pass defense vs the Cowboys passing offense... The Bucs pass defense has consistently been in the bottom third of the NFL almost all season. And the trend is downward. In the trailing 7 weeks, they are 30th in the NFL (adjusted) against the pass. Dak makes mistakes when he is pressured, and there is tight coverage (sounds obvious, but more than average). The Bucs hurry % (defensive QB pressure stat) is 28th in NFL. Put that together, and you should see a Dak that can thrive with time, and open receivers. Once the Cowboys hit some runs - it compounds the problem for the Bucs - but in this case - I actually think they will come out passing and be successful which will open the run game. The median number of punts for the Cowboys in my simulation is 1.4. That is crazy low. Brady has had recent success hitting long balls, because he has dinked and dunked all year and nobody was prepared for it. The Panthers game is a prime example. The Cowboys will be ready here - and I expect the Bucs to be pretty one dimensional. The Bucs have a non-existent run game, and so the Cowboys will likely be able to drop a lot of coverage and are very likely to be able to get Brady off of his spot with just 4. I think the Cowboys get out early, the Bucs will have to throw to catch up - and the Cowboys will be able to mix the run in in the second half to bury the Bucs. If I were betting a total (I am not) - it would be the over. Cowboys win something like 38-21.
And watch now in the second half....
The throwing success so far is now going to open up the run - just as I explained above. Dallas will have long gaping holes. Watch.
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0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
This one is pretty simple to me.... The Bucs pass defense vs the Cowboys passing offense... The Bucs pass defense has consistently been in the bottom third of the NFL almost all season. And the trend is downward. In the trailing 7 weeks, they are 30th in the NFL (adjusted) against the pass. Dak makes mistakes when he is pressured, and there is tight coverage (sounds obvious, but more than average). The Bucs hurry % (defensive QB pressure stat) is 28th in NFL. Put that together, and you should see a Dak that can thrive with time, and open receivers. Once the Cowboys hit some runs - it compounds the problem for the Bucs - but in this case - I actually think they will come out passing and be successful which will open the run game. The median number of punts for the Cowboys in my simulation is 1.4. That is crazy low. Brady has had recent success hitting long balls, because he has dinked and dunked all year and nobody was prepared for it. The Panthers game is a prime example. The Cowboys will be ready here - and I expect the Bucs to be pretty one dimensional. The Bucs have a non-existent run game, and so the Cowboys will likely be able to drop a lot of coverage and are very likely to be able to get Brady off of his spot with just 4. I think the Cowboys get out early, the Bucs will have to throw to catch up - and the Cowboys will be able to mix the run in in the second half to bury the Bucs. If I were betting a total (I am not) - it would be the over. Cowboys win something like 38-21.
And watch now in the second half....
The throwing success so far is now going to open up the run - just as I explained above. Dallas will have long gaping holes. Watch.
That kicker cannot be used for any reason again the rest of the game.. He's finished
The game would be pretty much a wrap if it was 21-0 people think those points don't matter.. When you're laying 2.5 all them points matter in the NFL.. unless the Bucs just get shut down starting the first drive of the 2nd half and then cowboys start pounding it at them. Those extra points got me heated right now
0
That kicker cannot be used for any reason again the rest of the game.. He's finished
The game would be pretty much a wrap if it was 21-0 people think those points don't matter.. When you're laying 2.5 all them points matter in the NFL.. unless the Bucs just get shut down starting the first drive of the 2nd half and then cowboys start pounding it at them. Those extra points got me heated right now
That kicker cannot be used for any reason again the rest of the game.. He's finished The game would be pretty much a wrap if it was 21-0 people think those points don't matter.. When you're laying 2.5 all them points matter in the NFL.. unless the Bucs just get shut down starting the first drive of the 2nd half and then cowboys start pounding it at them. Those extra points got me heated right now
Totally agree. But they arent going to matter tonight. But I do totally agree with what you are saying.
Dallas is going to extend.
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Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:
That kicker cannot be used for any reason again the rest of the game.. He's finished The game would be pretty much a wrap if it was 21-0 people think those points don't matter.. When you're laying 2.5 all them points matter in the NFL.. unless the Bucs just get shut down starting the first drive of the 2nd half and then cowboys start pounding it at them. Those extra points got me heated right now
Totally agree. But they arent going to matter tonight. But I do totally agree with what you are saying.
@vanzack My biggest take away from the 1H is that Tampa has zero contain on the edges. Hicks and Vea are tired moving laterally on all those outside runs. The hurry up offense helped gas them out as well. We want more Pollard, less Zeke. Imo
Hurry rate is the key this game.
The Boys are getting to Brady. He is useless under pressure. Dak has enough time - not a lot - to not make mistakes.
Thats it for me. And now watch that contain you are talking totally break down in the second half. GOing to be a pounding.
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0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@vanzack My biggest take away from the 1H is that Tampa has zero contain on the edges. Hicks and Vea are tired moving laterally on all those outside runs. The hurry up offense helped gas them out as well. We want more Pollard, less Zeke. Imo
Hurry rate is the key this game.
The Boys are getting to Brady. He is useless under pressure. Dak has enough time - not a lot - to not make mistakes.
Thats it for me. And now watch that contain you are talking totally break down in the second half. GOing to be a pounding.
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86: That kicker cannot be used for any reason again the rest of the game.. He's finished The game would be pretty much a wrap if it was 21-0 people think those points don't matter.. When you're laying 2.5 all them points matter in the NFL.. unless the Bucs just get shut down starting the first drive of the 2nd half and then cowboys start pounding it at them. Those extra points got me heated right now Totally agree. But they arent going to matter tonight. But I do totally agree with what you are saying. Dallas is going to extend.
I hope not, but it's just frustrating as hell.. He's the first kicker to ever miss 3 in a playoff game, and he did it in the first half alone.
0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86: That kicker cannot be used for any reason again the rest of the game.. He's finished The game would be pretty much a wrap if it was 21-0 people think those points don't matter.. When you're laying 2.5 all them points matter in the NFL.. unless the Bucs just get shut down starting the first drive of the 2nd half and then cowboys start pounding it at them. Those extra points got me heated right now Totally agree. But they arent going to matter tonight. But I do totally agree with what you are saying. Dallas is going to extend.
I hope not, but it's just frustrating as hell.. He's the first kicker to ever miss 3 in a playoff game, and he did it in the first half alone.
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