Anchor Baby, A yknot betting concept.

@vanzack

 U keep mentioning buying and selling points....after we have said that is not the topic....buying points not smart a lot of the time...especially at the ridiculous prices

Born2 gets it....

What is the reality of the numbers? What don't we understand?

Please. Stop being so mystical. You have displayed an elementary grasp of math and statistics so far. I'm giving you a chance to explain. What about "the numbers" can you enlighten us with? So far, you have either stated falsehoods or fundamentally basic concepts disguised as complicated.

[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack]Benelli, it is very simple.  Forget amounts. Who cares. If you are betting a 100-1 favorite, you can't lose more than once in 101 plays to be profitable. If your predicted results are 200-1, and you can get 100-1, you should bet it and repeat it.  Very simple[/Quote.

 so you decide to ignore regression to the mean and assume your predictions are 100% superior??? 

Interesting 

@vanzack

 You are ignoring regression to the mean and assuming your predictions are 100% superior...at 100-1 odds the numbers state you will have a loser in there...simple

Okay so what you were saying is that getting three is better than getting two and a half? Of course you want to get the best line you can. Of course if you can get three you're going to get three instead of two and a half. What are you telling us it's laughable at this point?

@vanzack

 My point has been made. Have a good day. You need to re read my posts slowly and forget buying points. It is all there in the numbers

Word salad.

" Regression to the mean"? Word salad. Means nothing. Sounds great, means nothing and is not applicable here.

Saying that you have an expected value of 200 to one implies that the mean is 200 to 1. So regression to the mean would mean over time you would win 200 and lose once. If you identify an event such as this, and can lay 100 to one on that event, you will win long term. There is no regression to the mean that would make you unprofitable in that situation.

Stop using your silly terms and explain it in English. You're silly terms aren't going to fool me. I'm going to call you out every time you attempt to use it. Just explain it in English.

I believe what you are trying to say is that there is no bet that laying 100 to one can be profitable on. That is crazy. If I had to bet you that the sun would come up every day, and lay 100 to one, I would do it every day.

Yeah I can see why you're quitting this. Totally get it. Ride off into the sunset.

Point has been made lol

@vanzack

 You are assuming perfection in that scenario. The chances of being perfect over 100 wagers is slim no matter what the odds. If the odds of hitting 100 straight wins is slim then you are going against the numbers...

Benelli, no matter the amount of usernames you make, and the amount of phrases you create that sound important and enlightened, you are still a dope. Nothing you have said in this thread makes any sense and we are 125 posts in.

There is nothing anybody using this thread, nothing enlightening in this thread, nothing that is not nonsensical in this thread, nothing that is at all logical or useful for anybody reading it. It is a giant waste of time. Congratulations.

Duh.

I'm not assuming anything, much less perfection. I am assuming that the event in question will happen at least 99 times out of 100! How is that perfection?

If you allow me to take 100 to 1 odds on the sun coming up every day, I will bet you the next 100 days that the sun will come up every day. Why do you think that that won't happen? Because the odds are 100 to one?

Your lack of rational thought here is getting not only frustrating but astounding.

Its simple, Vanzak is pissed because he knows I am one of the top pros and few experts.   He is pissed and threatened as it doesnt allow him to be the big man on Campus.   Think about how much time and attention he has spent in here.
why?
yknot?!

It just so happens this time he chose the wrong newbie to Bully.  You notice it didnt take him long to realize he was dealing with his older brother and needed to sit down and be quite.  Yes Vanzak the Doctor is in.   Dont worry no one is going to threaten your yo yo picks or your amazing 40 units,  (same for 5 weeks)  
Its because I am well known and pound winners consistently year in and year out.  Like Metallica, I bring it every single time.  No I am not Cocky, actually quite humble, it aint easy being me,  lots of people this time of year just want to use me.  I dont even talk to family anymore, in the end everyone just wants a winner.  Its lonely.  I now live by myself, in the middle of no where az.   Less distractions, and the animals never ask for winners.

Its a lonely world I live in,  no one really likes me,  they just want my winners.  Funny thing is,  very few even ask Yknot y u like that game?  I have become so consistently right, no one even asks y!  They just bet it.  even if I try to explain, they really dont want to hear, they just want the fish on the plate.  So, I was feeling used.  So I packed up and moved to Hope Arizona.   Legal Gambling,  and a town of 350 people, with a post office and an auto parts store. 

Bad Jockeys dont listen to directions, good ones to need them!  

Ok Benelli. Great comedy.

@vanzack

 Bad example . The sun is a constant. (Well not forever technically as it is a star)

The 100 bets on different events would have millions of different potential outcomes. This is where you go against the numbers.

Yes each event individually could hit 99% of the time...that is what the odds state....assuming you could do this and rattle off 100 straight wins is interesting

Sure bet#1  hits...but chances are your luck runs out by bet 95...as we know going perfect on 100 bets would be a task

I am begging to think I am debating a mentally challenged person so I am going to back out. 

Good luck with everything Benelli. I wish you the best.

Yknot must be famous if you keep throwing out names trying to figure it out.  LOL  whats funny is you are reaching for Winners.  Hahah  everyone knows who they are because there are so few!!!!  How do you know its not straightbets?  LOL  yknot
whats funny is, your behavior  haha  threatened by the PROS

thats ok  u will graduate someday.   No I am not benelli, I am actually better handicapper from that guy. Straightbets is more my speed more action on the daily. To few games with uncle.

Honored to be feared by fanzack.   Let the Doctor explain.   Vanzack behavior is predictable.  This one is simple. Its fear based. Which generally comes out as anger. Like we see here. 
1. Fear of losing what you have.  In this case, he fears not being the tallest midget.
2.  Fear not getting what you want.  In this case, Vanzak wants to be famous and well known capper.  When somone who is actualy known for wining comes around he gets threatend  fear of not being the guy, and losing reputation to a real pro.
This is why he comes in threads and does this,

Notice he started this whole thing trying to discredit and bully.   Now he is sitting in the hot seat with His Daddy and class is in session boys.  

Ha ha ha ha h

@vanzack

 The irony in here is funny 

We complain about this guy going 70-7 and saying it can't be. But never find out whats odds he winning at

And now you are claiming that 100-1 bets are fine because you can find an edge and go undefeated over 100 in your lifetime...

Very interesting 

Calling me Benelli is actually a huge complment, but I actually think I can beat him.  Not easy, but same with straightbets,  I put that guy in his place last year, In atlantic city.  Got video of his big nose.  We got in a falling out, when I told him, if you win so much why havent you got your nosed fixed yet?

That upset him.

Anyways  fun to watch young richard on the run,  or should we call you DICK?

@dubz4dummyz

 You are only allowed to use outside record    posted records only so covers record
17-3   must follow rules   sorry about the 70 -7   that is actually 72-9

@yknot

 No 70-7 is better....he laughed at you

Now he claims 100-1 bets are completely fine if he finds an edge. When in a lifetime if a person made 100 100-1 bets they could only afford to lose 1 of them therefore leaving them with a record of 100-0 or 99-1....

yes the odds state that is what should occur but of course its called gambling for a reason as the result doesn't always go with the odds tagged on the event

Incredibly important line moves have happened in last 24 hours that are extremely important.  And I am messing around with a 50% clown.
Important LINE moves, last day about.  Time for work, we may have lost a game,  down to a half dozen.  Thats a good thing.  I would love to never play more then 3 in a weekend.  Shit that win % would be higher if I only played  1 or 3 games   jesus,
if we are down to 6, then we are going to 5 games this week.  Sorry but one game, has a LOOOOOK the hell out spread.
I will get the inside scoop when west coast wakes up.  Certainly info came out on inside and I need to find out what the hell happened to one of my top picks of Sunday.

Sucks when they do this shit, now I have to work

@vanzack

 Again with the name calling, no need...and I have no idea about covers past...only found the site few years ago

@dubz4dummyz

 I explained it.  They get nervous around a real pro.  Funny thing is, he has probably asked me to sign a book and doesnt even know it.  LOL    Its a compliment, flattered really.  He is not a complete fool. He knows a pro when he reads it.  Thats why he is in here since it started.
Hoping I post another play, so he can improve his results this week.   Old trick they all try to get my games before kickoff.
yknot!

He is right that if he has 200-1 odds on a bet and they give him 100-1 that it is technically a smart bet...

He ignores the variation of each individual event and the odds of all variations in each event lining up perfectly for him, allowing him to go undefeated on 100 bets...

You might want to tell this to the life insurance industry.

I am sure all of those huge buildings in Manhattan that house life insurance companies would love to hear your stance on laying long odds and "variations".