Anchor Baby, A yknot betting concept.

@vanzack

 Nice 

Yup just 1 factor of hundreds or thousands 

Now would you apply that more often to when betting a favorite ? It seems more logical to do so

And conversely

When betting a dog would you prefer the game to be within 1 score? As that would give your dog a chance of keeping it close in a loss while still allowing for a win

* This is what we need in this forum 

I try to identify games with high STD DEV result predictions.  This is INDEPENDENT of whether my other factors point to the dog or fav.

It is simply an analysis to say "this game has a better chance of landing on an outlier score that is outside of 8 points of the spread than you would expect in an average game".  Thats all.  The higher the STD DEV, the more I am attracted to wager on that game.

The thinking is that if you get the other factors right that point to WHICH team to bet on, if the STD DEV is high on results - the importance of which team to bet on is HIGHER and has a HIGHER impact on whether you win or lose the bet.

@DW7

 Theoretically speaking doing things like this is exactly how you win longterm. 

Now actually having those abilities and systems in place is a whole different ballgame. As you can see this is intricate stuff...

Hence why only 2-3% of cappers are profitable

This is why I brought up +ev

Van has a +ev system he knows works. 

Some one starting out or just getting serious has no idea if what they are assigning +ev too is actually +ev....

thats because +ev is not a constant..it varies from person to person based on how they/their numbers view the potential result of an event.

@vanzack

 You would think your medicore win % would be much better with all this data garbage.  You have become a dinosaur. It has passed you by.  This is why you are fighting in my threads so much and angry.

If you want to be a grinder, and spend tireless hours on worthless numbers, sit and spin with Vanzack!  Best of luck if you think you can hit 60%.  As for units.... 40 units up for an entire NFL season????   Again Dinasour.  

Someday you will get rid off your flip phone, and come learn the spread offense.  When that day comes, you will be 25% of the teams left who still dont utilize the shift!!
40 units can be accomplished in one day, when utilizing predictive outcomes and behavioral algorithms.
If you do not understand this or do not believe it, then you have no business posting in my thread.

Its English and Chinese.   y r u here n my thread?  y?   Its garbage chinese to you.  Go grind your 60% dinosaur and leave my threads alone.   

@dubz4dummyz

 Can you please take the Dinosaur and worthless numbers to another thread please.   This really is two polar opposities to what I teach and wager.  This stuff you guys discuss I taught over 30 years ago.   I honestly am not bragging. I know you think I am but, I am not.  I just say this for those people learning how to handicap in 2023.

It would be very helpful if we could keep you number guys in your own threads.  We wont mess with you and you dont mess with us explorers  ok?  fair enough all?

Peace and love peace and love 

@vanzack

 Right

if your numbers point to team A and that the deviation is greater than 8. You are more likely to wager on that event. 

You have a system that works for you

@yknot

 There are multiple way to cap a game buddy...both ways can be right.....

I can't wait to see your success rate

@vanzack

 Sorry that should read

When betting a dog would you prefer that your standard deviation number says a 1 score game is more likely? This would make sense as you are getting points on a dog and a tighter score favors the + points....

Have you thought of this or am I pointing it out to you? Just curious if that thought has crossed your mind

I apply my std dev analysis equally to dogs and favs.

I dont follow your logic on the difference.

Think of the spread in terms of absolute value.  It doesnt matter if you are on the negative or positive side of the spread - it only matters that you are far away from it.

@vanzack

 There is no such thing as Value.  This is where you and I completely disagree.  Value died years ago.  It doesn't exist.
This has been proven in my mirror concept and is specific to behavioral algos.
Nothing is on sale,   Value seekers are chasing a Mirror.  I have multiple mirror games this weekend in the NFL.  It is such an amazing card.
I will be doing a seminar on my Mirror concept at the Waste Management Phoenix Open on Superbowl weekend,  Meet and greet.  I will be in person to discuss and answer questions on my concepts and betting strategies.  Superbowl will be more of a happy hour tailgate deal, but will be there for meet and greets as well.   

Look forward to meeting my critics

I define value as a difference in a predictive model and the actual bettable line.

If you can develop and prove over time a predictive model that provides results that are bettable against a widely available line - and be successful more than the cost of the wager - then that is value.

Saying that "value died years ago" is like saying air doesnt exist because you cant see it.  Value exists for those of us that can repeat value over time.  And I can do it.  I have done it for 20 years, consistently.  This is not a one off season for me.  I do it year after year.

So how do you respond to this?  Value is dead, but I continue to show value year after year?

@vanzack

Thats what I'm saying

If your standard deviation points to a more likely result of 1-7 points this inherently favors the + points as your dog can win by any amount of points but also lose by 'x' amount of points.(whatever the spread was +3.5, +7.0, etc...)

When betting a favorite you don't get the added bonus of the favorite losing. They must win. Hence one would would want a higher standard deviation when betting a favorite. 

I think that should make sense? I can go into further detail if need be

It is 8 points away from the spread, not zero.  

So I am looking for games that will land 1 score outside of the spread, not zero.

If the spread is -5, then -13 for the fav, and +3 for the dog.

@vanzack

 Interesting way to do it

With all my due respect @Yknot you just leave this alone.  If it wasn't for Dubz and Van you would have NO THREAD ! 

@dubz4dummyz

Interesting way to spend your entire week 

“New” Guy makes some big ol post claiming some anchor baby (great fcking name clown) system that has him winning crazy % alas not documented here on covers (but we must still point it out) and from what I get reading every single one of their posts is that “bet +3 instead of +2.5” and “bet -3 instead of -3.5” like how genius is that? Why didn’t I think of just waiting for the line to go my way right up until kickoff? Also great idea to “live bet” som many of these anchor babies! Wait you seriously stated that these plays will not lose (you said Green Bay can’t lose this week and right away lose ANY credibility you could ever want here) and therefore Green Bay is our anchor baby to be added to every single parlay and teaser we can get our hands on and we will be rich? WTF? Then you try to back track it and say don’t put all your eggs in one basket? You did, you literally did put all your eggs in one fcking basket. You can hit 17-3 consistently cause you’re a pro?! Nice then just bet a unit 20 times and bam you’re up a bunch, do it for all 18 weeks next year and amazing you’ll be 306-54 next season! I can’t wait to see it! Also how were you working for books for so long and are such a pro better that’s so well known all while playing sports yourself? Couple of holes in your claims here but thanks for the fun read! I’m torn between if reading all 200+ comments was really worth the fact you could’ve simply said “I have a posted record of 17-3 last week on here and the reason I feel I can keep it up is because I wait for the line to move from +2.5 to +3 or from -3.5 to -3 before I will bet them (if they don’t move to that point it must be a no bet) 

@philschnaars

 If you can’t tell within the 5 minutes of someone speaking whether he’s bullshitting you or if he’s legit. Then, YOU sir is the CLOWN!!

fixed it for you 

@philschnaars

 I had ‘are’ when I first wrote it then went back and hit the edit button because I didn’t like how it sounded..changed to ‘is’ intentionally. Just sounds more condescending and singular. Would you like to correct ‘legit’ for me, too?! Don’t think that’s a word. Also just used a double punctuation and definitely missed a few commas. Clown.

you’re special 

There are some assumptions in here that are off a tad to me.  For example, while 15% of NFL games may end on 3 that does not mean that 15% of every spread that is listed will end on 3.  Obviously, if the spread is 10 there is less likelihood of the game ending on 3 than if the spread were actually 3.  This is because the STD moves with the number in nearly all cases.  

For example: “Using our software, we found that the probability of a Push on a closing spread of +3 points is about 10%. When the closing spread is +2.5 points, the probability of a game ending with an outcome of 3 points is also about 10%. So this begs this question, is it even worth it to buy the half-point from +2.5 to +3? And are you better off just taking the moneyline either way?”

There are a lot of articles and a lot of databases online that you can use to research this.  When I say a lot, I mean a lot.

For example, there is an old question of:  if the line is +2.5, should you take the ML, should you buy it to +3, or should you just take the +2.5?

All three of those are going to make you money long term in praxis.  That part is fact and is well known.  The question is which is better ROI long term.  The answer is you should take the ML.  It will be more profitable in the long run.  Since most people will not do that because they want the points (they feel safer, etc.) then you should just take the +2.5 as is.  Lastly, the worst ROI, while still profitable, is to buy the 1/2 point (but, again this makes people feel safer).  But it is proven to have a lower ROI. 

Bet Type Record (Win-Loss-Push) Units Won ROI

+2.5 Spread 104-82 ATS +22.66 units 12.2%

+2.5 Moneyline 96-89 SU +29.77 units 16.1%

Bought to +3 Spread (using 1/2 point = 25 cents) 104-64-18 ATS +13.03 units 7.0%

This is the same sentiment as buying points.  You are not feeling safe enough with your play and hoping you can get more points.  What if it never moves to 3?  Do you not play it at +2.5 ever?  If that is the case you will be leaving money on the table a lot if you feel you already have the right value.

I know you are not talking about buying points.  But you have to assume that you will always be getting a fair +3 line, if and when it becomes available.  Now what if you take the +3 when it is available and the line moves to +3.5?  +3.5 is not profitable long term.  But do you still jump from +3 to +3.5, etc., etc.

If you look at each closing line and the MOV and compare them you will see a close correlation.  Generally the more you move away from -0- the further apart you will get.  For example, +2.5 the MOV is -1.1, +3 the MOV is -2.37.  However, at +3.5 the MOV is -4.46.  

But there are some exceptions.  I wrote about this a while ago.  Since the PAT move, more going for 2, and the analytics changing some moves during games, certain numbers are more important than they were.  For example 5 is much more important and 6 is more important than it was.   The MOV with +5 is -3.66.  Now granted, 5 is a fairly rare line but it is now a much more key number.  Since PAT was moved back the MOV for +5 is -2.85, while the +3 MOV is -2.17.