Anchor Baby, A yknot betting concept.

My point is that very few people are blindly just taking numbers because they know they are profitable alone.  They are looking at many more variables.  For example, four games this week were +14 and +9.5 (two each) and looked like they had a chance to close at those numbers.  Assuming they did and you blindly played them every single time they were available, you should do well in the long run.  But if you had +14.5 and +10 you will have an overwhelmingly better ROI.  It is even cheaper to buy the 1/2 point off these numbers because they are not as key as 3 and 7 are.  For sure a smaller sample size but +14 covers at 53.2% and +14.5 at 75%.  But the noticeable thing is +14 the MOV is -14.95 but the MOV for +14.5 is -5.69.  +9.5 covers right around 50% and the MOV is -12.33, but +10 covers 58.3% and the MOV is -8.76.  There is player psychology and motivation to consider when a large key number is put up also.

The other issue is the playoff considerations.  There was a nice long article on this online explaining how this is largely baked into the line but folks still insist there is wriggle room.  Maybe, maybe not.  For example, the main game that they say might matter a lot to the line is if the Ravens win/lose — what do the Chargers do?

My long-winded rattle here is to say a couple of things.  People know about key numbers but they are not blindly betting them.  They are using other factors as well.  This is where their mistakes may come into play, or if they are good at it, their advantage.  Just because a line is set at +3 it does not make it the same quality as another game that has a line set at +3.  Just because 15% of games land on 3, it does not mean that +2.5 will land on 3 at 15% of the time.  The data shows it to be closer to 10%.  

Absolutely, if you know you are going to play a +2.5 and you know you can get +3 later for the same price you should wait.  But how often does a line move from +2.5 -110 to +3 -110.  Is it enough to keep on waiting and if it does not move, do you take the +2.5 at the very end — what if it moved to +2.  If you see value at +2.5 -110, is it just the same or worse than +3 -120.  

There are a lot of assumptions in here that I do not see the math holding up.  Yes, if you add in some other human factors and handicapping factors, okay.

@Raiders22

Great series of posts.  I read every word.

Just wanted to thank you because I assume this thread is dead now - and your posts are exactly why I keep coming to Covers.

As you mention - just because 15% of games land on 3 in the NFL historically - that does not mean every game has the same chance of landing on 3.  This concept is what I have tried to zero in on in the last 5 years or so - the attempt to identify games that have a higher probability of something happening (like landing on a number) than overall expectation.

"Bet Type Record (Win-Loss-Push) Units Won ROI

+2.5 Spread 104-82 ATS +22.66 units 12.2%

+2.5 Moneyline 96-89 SU +29.77 units 16.1%

Bought to +3 Spread (using 1/2 point = 25 cents) 104-64-18 ATS +13.03 units 7.0%"

i cant rebuttal this without the context of these numbers, need to know 2 things

1) what is the timeline of these numbers? last 25 seasons?? last 20?? nfl history??

2) is this EVERY SINGLE +2.5 line in the timeframe you confirm from the question #1?, or only certain +2.5 lines??

@Raiders22

 also do the numbers you are looking at show -3.5 and -3.0 spreads to end on 3 about 10% of the time as well?? 

@vanzack

 Thanks.  Yes, more I wanted to say about all of that but was dragging on too much.

@dubz4dummyz

Thanks.  I do not have the particular article or database with me right now.  Going off the top of my head -- most of these are from 2003 onward.  I think in that particular article they were through 2019ish.  But you can parse it out by date range on a lot of the databases -- say from 2015 onward (since PAT move). But I can go back and look later or link the article if you want to read it.

The question about -3.5 and -3 is probably pretty close.  But I would be surprised if it were not more actually.  I do not have the MOV for that or the ROI right in front of me.  But I can look it up later as well.

The reason I say that -- it is known the only time it is profitable to buy onto/off a key number is from -3.5 to -3.  This is for sure with 20cents and I think 25cents.  So, I suspect in this direction it may land more than the 10%.

But I know that was the only profitable time to buy BEFORE the PAT was moved back -- I would have to check that again.

Mainly, I just point all of this out to say that the numbers matter -- some a LOT.  But folks are NOT using JUST the numbers.  They use their own 'skills' and/or what 'handicapping expertise' they have developed over the years.

So, if you are attempting to combine the numbers AND your handicapping you have to be careful.  Are you going to be correct more or really 'see more value' than blindly taking the numbers.  If not, it can cause you to be swayed incorrectly into thinking the value is better at another number than it really is, etc.

@Raiders22

see thats what worried me about that random set of data you posted......all numbers go on 'streaks' (warriors 73-9 season....a capper having a 75% season....etc.....)

if the numbers you posted had indeed been in NFL history, then you had literally just found the definition of "free money"...as, if those were the numbers over NFL history you could have simply blind-bet all +2.5 lines and been profitable....but alas they were not the entire history of +2.5 lines....

this leads into what i meant by regressing to the mean as VZ questioned

Sports gambling has had a long enough history that we know over a lifetime (thousands of picks) the best of the best cappers have a win rate between 53%-59%....

of course a capper could have a 3-year run of 70% seasons during his lifetime of sports betting .....conversely he could have a 3 year-run of 50% seasons during his lifetime of sports betting.....hence why the best cappers end up in the 53%-59% range lifetime...

now we are starting to get a more full picture.....

now since sports gambling has been around long enough to have a solid data base, we acknowledge that 60% on -110 lines over a lifetime of betting is great and almost unobtainable 

we must also acknowledge that every event is its own market and that the said events market, in most cases, will move across different numbers during the week....whether its 1 side of the bet getting pounded, or the book adjusting the line to try to obtain action on the other side....(remember they prefer 50/50 action if they can obtain it)

NOTE- this is exclusive to the difference between +2.5 and +3.0 longterm over a lifetime using flat bet of 1 unit (risk 1 unit)

NOTE- there would be a larger unit discrepancy if i used -3.0/-3.5 as the example

we have bettor A, and bettor B.....both are above-average cappers and have made exactly 1000 picks in their lives.....they both have a 55% win rate

Bettor A and Bettor B both have identical 495-405-100 records

bettor A has made all 1000 of his bets @ +2.5 (-110)

bettor B has made all 1000 of his bets @ +3.0 (-110)

bettor A took 20 years to make these 1000 picks

bettor B was more patient as the line didnt always move his way, bettor B took 25 years to make these 1000 picks

now as your data states, approx. 10% of all spreads at +2.5 and +3.0 end in a result of 3, this is factual data from your numbers (although not entire NFL history we will use them for examples sake)....since they have both made 1000 wagers we know 10% of 1000 is 100....and that approx. 10% of +2.5 and +3.0 spreads land on the result of 3....hence approx. 100 of their plays will end on a result of 3

therefore Bettor A has made 1000 bets @+2.5 (-110) , with 100 of them landing on the result of 3...lets give the dog the benefit of the doubt and say they won outright 60% of the time, but the other 40% the fave won by 3......

Bettor A has lost 40 units for the 40 times the fave won by exactly 3

conversely, Bettor B has made 1000 bets @ +3.0 (-110), with 100 of them landing on the result of 3 ...again lets give the dog the benefit of the doubt and say they won outright 60% of the time, but the other 40% the fave won by 3

Bettor B has been returned his 40 units (push) for the 40 times the fave won by exactly 3

This all leads into watching line movement, odds/opposed to line, etc...

Again, this isnt an example for a veteran capper, like you or VZ, you guys already fully understand this....but my guess would be the majority have no idea....or have no care to crunch the numbers....

I am sorry but Vanzack is right and so are others as well. We ALL KNOW Uncle Beneli well enough to know how FAKE HE IS! Edits, Deletes and posts 2 sides of games to different names on here and also on TG as well. About As Fake as you can get. Should watch some of his Videos. Always saying both sides and then one wins he says he went 17-1 LMAO when he actually went totally opposite if someone tailed other side he said LOL 


fyi covers should check his MULTIPLE ACCTS: 

Uncle Beneli 
Siribenelli
Yknot
AdVictoriam

and few others EXPOSED! 

Also he Says Mirror games, but this is why he is soo great for he says in his videos on his page and purchased his picks to only get both sides, Asked him which one and then after game wins said he had other side. you think this is bad check out his threads on Telegram LOL Man got more alias and lies than anyone I know. 

Also here is His Scam FB Account: 
Uncle Benelli Picks and Chat | Facebook

Creepy dude...Uncle Benelli and his other 3-4 names...

@ROOKIE2U

 Not sure how old you are...but back in the 70s... there were a Ton of these ynot/slipknot types...(Uncle benelli's)...

Back then when land lines/home phones were still popular... I knew a guy that would do the cold calls for a service and it was a simple process... 50% would get team A and 50% team B... with 50% of the callers happy and a certain percent would get suckered into a very high priced service...which his is...

Also I did not realize he was even here till I saw one of the arguments...

@Gspks1

 Yep! 100% Accurate! Sorry it is RED FLAG when you use multiple names, Send multiple picks, and then also begging for money and people in Telegram group to come in here and defend him and stick up for him to help sell his service. We all know who he is personally and lot of people in here know him as well exposing this Hypocrite! He got caught red handed and started to leave some groups he was exposed in LOL 

@ROOKIE2U

Well same thing on the social media sites guys use multiple names to reply pretending to be other people to sucker people in congratulating themself, and on social media... many of them seem to be on crack...   Also go on his web site and look at the amount he charges insane!

LMAO I know right! So he offering package for $50 for one day BUT he also offering package  for $150 for one day with difference of being added to a FREE TELEGRAM group of Cappers in all sports

BUT he wants to invite ones that pay the $150 for a Group of Cappers on Telegram that post all their plays for FREE! So why would anyone join when they can join for free since group ws created to help each other bank and make money, but yet he can not pick any winners so wants to try sell all of Telegram picks in group as incentive. Any capper can join for FREE LMAO.... Show you how shady he is! Anyone that paid for it is retarded for it is a Free channel lol

@yknot

Hey buddy, I sent you a friend request...$50 to handle your package? That's a fair price 

@dubz4dummyz

 Article about key numbers and buying was data from 1989 to 2015 

.

LMFAO he just posted update, going to create new name and website now LOL If want to expose real scammer here is his New TG link: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100089137020996 top post

@packersbackers

his pick is DENVER 

@ROOKIE2U

 No need to update.  He is irrelevant.  Nobody cares.

.

Cost to Buy a Half Point: 10 Cents 20 Cents 25 Cents

Line Buy to Games % Lands Loss to Push Losses Added Profit Profit/Loss Profit/Loss Profit/Loss

-1.5 -1 218 2.29% 5 $1,040.00 $550.00 -$490.00 -$1,530.00 -$2,050.00

+1.5 +2 218 3.21% 7 $1,020.00 $770.00 -$250.00 -$1,270.00 -$1,780.00

-2.5 -2 395 3.54% 14 $1,835.00 $1,540.00 -$295.00 -$2,130.00 -$3,047.50

+2.5 +3 395 7.59% 30 $1,675.00 $3,300.00 $1,625.00 -$50.00 -$887.50

-3.5 -3 519 10.40% 54 $2,055.00 $5,940.00 $3,885.00 $1,830.00 $802.50

+3.5 +4 519 2.89% 15 $2,445.00 $1,650.00 -$795.00 -$3,240.00 -$4,462.50

@dubz4dummyz

 Sorry.  That is the best I can do with copying the chart. Hope you can get the idea.

From those years -3.5 to -3 landed at 10.4% and +2.5 to +3 landed at 7.59%

@Raiders22

thanks

i will never buy points personally....and as i have stated multiple times the market of each event typically fluctuates thru the week (nfl), usually presenting an opportunity for the line you desire.... 

i have sold points before tho, dont mind doing that in certain spots/sports... mainly a +0.5 NBA spread if selling the point will beat the ML price..(pretty much common sense imo)

@dubz4dummyz

 Yessir. 

NBA and NCAA are a very unique middling opportunity when they set the line at 2 and ML is 125ish.  Very surprisingly how often this hits.  The oddsmakers are setting this for a last possession type game.

But every sport is unique and every game is unique in that sport.