Anchor Baby, A yknot betting concept.

@dubz4dummyz

 Is the point that you are making that you should always buy the half point whether it's +2.5 or -3.5?

If the nfl result of 3 happens 16.9% of the time. 1 out of every 6 games for easy numbers 

Bettor A makes 600 bets over 20 years at -3.5 odds. 1 of every 6th game indeed lands on 3....600/6= 60.

Bettor A lost 60 bets by the hook. Damn how unlucky is he. 

Bettor B makes 600 bets at -3.0 over 25 years. The line doesn't always get to 3 for him so it takes him 5 extra years to get to 600. Still the average nfl result of 3 occurs 16.9% of the time so 1/6th of his games also land on 3. But he happened to be more patient than bettor A and picked spots where the market went his way.

Bettor B has pushed 60 bets instead of losing 60 bets. Damn is he just lucky. No the numbers told him the game would land on 3 16.9% of the time.

At +2.5/+3 you have to factor the dog covering the 3 around half of the time by winning by 3...

In that instance bettor A at +2.5 would only lose about 30 bets that land on a result of 3 as the dog would win about half the games by 3 and lose the other half by 3....

remember 16.9% of all nfl games land on 3...so 60 or so of his 600 will land on 3 statistically 

And bettor B at +3.0 would have 30 more winners and 30 less pushes as his +3.0 dog would win outright half of his 60 and the other 30 would push

remember 16.9% of all nfl games land on 3...so 60 or so of his 600 will land on 3 statistically 

Bettor B is up many more units than bettor A

@brn2loslive2win

 No, each game is an individual market and to be patient and pick your spots if you are doing this for long time. 

Buying and selling points is rarely logical.

Agreed

So the point you are making then is to avoid betting games at 2.5 and 3.5 and focus more on betting games at 3? If so I can buy into that. I think, after going back into the thread a little bit, that vanzack had mistaken what you were saying for telling people that you should buy that .5 point to get the line to 3. I also misinterpreted what you were saying. This is why van replied to you that he bets at 2.5 all the time because essentially buying to 3 would be costly and make you less profitable in the long run.

Although, I shouldn't speak for anyone else, that is how I interpreted what you were saying and now after your response I am following you. Patiently bet games at 3 so that you can turn a loss into a push more often than on any other number. Got it

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes this is what the numbers state. As you can see in the example

-3.5 is clearly a disaster number as 16.9% of NFL games end in a result of 3. Therefore you have guaranteed a loss around 16.9% of the time.

This is all a numbers game

@yknot Really appreciate your picks and that 17-3 was amazing.  I'm starting to believe that its the real deal.  This weekend will be amazing!

@brn2loslive2win

 The important part is also that every game is a fluctuating market and as a capper you should notice opportunities where you can get a good -3.0 or a good +3.0 (when I say good atleast -110)

That might be on Tuesday at 8am or Saturday at 5pm...the market will always fluctuate 

I'm not huge buying/selling points fan....

@brn2loslive2win

and not necessarily avoid 2.5 and 3.5....but be well aware of the added risk as opposed to 3.0

As the example shows....bettor b made away like a bandit over a simple 0.5

@dubz4dummyz

 +2.5  and -3.5 ****

This only pertains to +2.5 and -3.5

@brn2loslive2win

 Better B should only push 30 bets @ -3.0  i forgot to factor in the dog winning half the time by 3..

Still 30 bets/units back instead of lost

@brn2loslive2win

 Always have a flat number where ever and when ever possible.  Everyone else just tried to over complicate to sound smart.
Vanzak is an amature bettor.  Take as simple as it is.  1/2 points will hurt your overall win  %   it is a 50/50 bet that you are going to win or lose period.   This is basic level.  When and how to apply a 1/2 point is a whole different deal.

Always add opportunity for a push.  One less way to lose.      simple dimple,

Win or lose,   or win push or lose.    No more no less

@yknot

 Laying 2.5 -110 and Taking +3.5 -110 on the same game will make you rich in the long run.

@jowchoo

 You can actually dial this in tighter with predicted outcomes,  as often times they tip there hand on the 3.  There are much bigger middle opportunities with Live wagering, but Mandatory that you understand the Algorhythms relative to spread.  I am believing more strongly, that we are at a place where you want to use seperate books for your straight plays, and a complete different outfit for your live wagers.
You will see why this become very important next year and the following.

 

@dubz4dummyz

 I absolutely agree with you that betting the number 3 is going to cost you less money over the long run. After all, the numbers don't lie. I can agree with most of everything you have said in relation to our back and forth conversation. Thanks for taking the time to explain yourself. I also agree on the idea of a "good" 3 (or any number) which is based strictly on the juice you're paying.

@yknot

 I also agree with you yknot on the fact that betting any flat number is safer than betting a .5 point spread. It does make sense to add the idea of a push into the equation whenever possible.

With all due respect to everyone in this thread (those who are here to actually say something meaningful anyway) I would have to disagree with the opinion that vanzack is an amateur or that he is a dumby or a loser. Vanzack has not only posted his plays all year (and his gains/losses), but has been kind enough to explain his philosophy and to respond to comments in re guards to what and why he is wagering on. That being said I would have to argue that he is doing quite well and as far as I know is up somewhere around 40 units this season. I'm not sure how much his 1 unit really is, but if it was 1000$ for example, he would be doing well enough to make a living off of sports betting.

I do know that the emphasis that vanzack puts on juice is critical to whether or not you are going to be a winner or loser at this game. That being said, I don't believe that betting a game that lands on a .5 point spread is going to be a crucial factor to whether or not you are a successful sports bettor in the long run.

With the exception of this season (and a few others from time to time) where the underdogs have covered spreads significantly more than favorites have, it really doesn't matter that much what the point spread on the game is technically. It is designed so that half the time one side covers, and half the time the other side covers. Most seasons end very close to 50/50. The key is to make sure that you aren't paying too much in juice no matter what. We all know that if you pick games at a 50/50 rate you are going to be a loser, so the idea is to pay the smallest amount of juice to make your losses as minimal as possible. Flat number or not. Essentially we want to reduce the house edge as much as possible. After that it just comes down to whether you can pick winners or not. This is the difference between being profitable in the long run or not. This is what vanzack has stressed in his threads time after time.

Anyway thanks for responding with some good info/opinions. That's what makes this site cool is that we can try and help each other win money. To be on here arguing is pretty silly after all. Respect to both of you guys and to vanzack as he is doing great this year and is making his system work the way he believes it will. Best of luck fellas.

@brn2loslive2win

 Great write up.  My take on what Yknot is saying is that the old way of handicapping is now limited by its inability to account for the big money the books/casinos use to mathematically analyze the myriad of factors that play into how they set a line, move a line and close a line.  I can say that my personal experience has confirmed this as 30 years ago I literally was a "Vanzack" in my approaches and methods to handicapping and I used to do well at 60-65% ranges for most NFL seasons.  That changed some 10 years ago or so.  I have not been profitable for some time now and have not been able to nail down what changed.

"Behavioral Algorithms" is certainly a candidate.  Anyone who can post a 17-3 has my attention.

@AdVictoriam

 Bingo was his name oh!   Open Mind leads to amazing finds.  Wait til we get into my Mirror concept, you are going to shit, and then you are going to connect a lot of dots.  This is extremely difficult but highly successful.  And I dont believe this opportunity will last long.  Phase two is coming, and the 3, and so on.  The boys are just getting started on how to utilize all this info.  I am aware of a large book of it, but everything is so early on, all we know is we are very directionally correct.  
There are so many games though, where if you could get out of a bet you would, only to see it cash with 13 seconds left.  Its crazy, but a ton of interesting fun, that gets more complex every week. 
Its almost like building out an offensive playbook with a youth football team.  This football season, they have mostly been playing with a new ferrari. Last year they were learning how to drive it, and next year, they plan to race the fucker in the indy 500.   I personally think it will take several years before they demonstrate the full capabilities.  Right now they dont have too.  It will only be when they catch on to this method that they will shift gears again."
They hold all the cards.  Best to hold their cards for them!!

Ynot....Interested to see how your system plays this week....and especially during the Playoffs...

Lines seem so tight.....Post the Plays... hope to hit all of them.....

@brn2loslive2win

Further

Juice just changes required win rate for profit. You should track all your plays and group them in odds groups on excel. This way you know if you are profitable at the odds you are betting....you need to hit your -120 bets more often than your -110 for your -120 bets to be profitable. Can you do it?

Maybe you love a play but when the book releases it at -140 u pause  and look at the required win rate for that bet to profit. Maybe you have it at 85% probability of being a winner and decide to bet it. Maybe you think it has a 65% chance to win and you decide to pass. Numbers say over the long run you will revert back to the mean of 50/50. 

Of course if you could make every bet between +105 to -105 that would be a wise decision in regards to profitability...but you might miss some plays you had an edge on but didn't fall in your odds range.... But most bettors bet when they think they have an edge. Juice is a massive factor in eating profits 

I read one time about a guy betting 50k to win 500 cause of the probability he calculated on the result (think it was politics bet)...again the odds are terrible but he thought he had found an edge. He won the $500....now the required win rate on that bet is insane and he probably only makes it once or twice in his life, As you are tempting fate with the numbers if you played a similar bet over and over

@brn2loslive2win

 Further

What is a unit? Some industry says a unit =$100...this allows inflated numbers.

a unit is really a ratio of your bet amount to your bet winnings using 1 as a base number.

Hence why if you are betting multiple amounts on different bets you must calculate the amounts separately to determine if what you are doing is working. 

Example- you track wins/losses and you are 7-4  on 11 +100 bets but down units and can't figure it out....you havent tracked the picks very detailed but decide to go back and do it

You go back and realize you bet 0.5 unit on each of the 7 winners for +3.5!!! But on the other 4 bets you lost you bet 1 unit....you have found the reason you are down 0.5 unit. Now you need to try to figure out why those 1 unit bets didn't work out...in a small sample size like this maybe pure luck but over hundreds of picks you should start getting a better grasp of why.

@brn2loslive2win

 Now let's expand off that 50k to win 500...this is the important part of the numbers...remember they are a business and understand that larger,flashier numbers are more likely  to attract customers to pay for picks...

Now if industry states a unit=$100 then holy shit buddy just won 5 units....not so fast...

In relation to his amount staked he has only won 0.01 of a unit or 1% as 500/50000= 0.01  ...if he had lost this bet it would take him winning the same bet 100 times to win his 50k back....

as you can see you can only afford 1 loss over 100 bets at this juice rate...hence why he will only make this bet once or twice in his lifetime most likely

This thread is a word salad buffet.

Every post is 75% complete. I love long seemingly statistics based posts that conclude with "this is much more more profitable" than posting actual math.

I am convinced this is the same person with multiple usernames. But any way you slice it, there has been a lot of words posted, with zero value.

We are saying 3 is a common number in the NFL? Great. How about the math behind the cost of the extra half point from 2.5 to 3, and if that beats the expected 16% of the time it lands on 3?

That's obvious. It isn't profitable. And going 60% on -105 NFL picks is considered pedestrian because Benelli says he has gone 85?. Ok.

This thread is lalaland.

Word salad.

It will be very interesting to see if this topic picks back up again....most bettors are scared of the reality of the numbers or don't fully understand them...hence why they aren't talked about very often...

Benelli, it is very simple. 

Forget amounts. Who cares. If you are betting a 100-1 favorite, you can't lose more than once in 101 plays to be profitable. If your predicted results are 200-1, and you can get 100-1, you should bet it and repeat it. 

Very simple. Doesn't take a thousand words. You have written multiple confusing (purposely) posts about the same thing that is very basic.