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8:40 EST - Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers

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Posted: #51
silly im thinking broncs -4.5 2nd half, peyton always seems to get going late in the game. thoughts?
 
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Posted: #52
silly fail .. His data does not compute this week  One with the giants ..2 with the raiders and 3 with the broncos fail fail. Better luck next week ...
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


If it goes under, it's because San Deigo's offense doesn't get to 20 points.

refail
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by crunkballbettor:

silly fail .. His data does not compute this week  One with the giants ..2 with the raiders and 3 with the broncos fail fail. Better luck next week ...


who the fuck are you? I have been on this site and never heard of your garbage ass. Si1ly however is one of the most respected cappers. Fuck off, thanks.
 
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Posted: #55
WOW Jarrett75. who the f**k are you his mom.. If you can get congrats when u cap good...then u can get crap when u cap poorly.. His PICK TONIGHT IS A FAIL! BIGTIME
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by eugderb:

  San Diego just has some weird cosmic thing where they just own Peyton.

Someone pointed out that Peyton just doesn't have a good record against the 3-4 Defense and maybe that is the reason he has trouble against SD.
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by Barnstorm:


Someone pointed out that Peyton just doesn't have a good record against the 3-4 Defense and maybe that is the reason he has trouble against SD.

I don't think Peyton is having much of a problem tonight... he's 17/22 for 225 yards and 1/1 TD/INT.  Completion and yards per completion are exceptional.  They have zero running game to speak of and a few really really bad turnovers turned into immediate touchdowns for San Diego.  Point is, the score is not a reflection of Peyton Manning tonight.
 
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Posted: #58
At this rate ill be eating crow

 
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Posted: #59
Not over yet. Lucky ball bouncing the other way now
 
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Posted: #60
Si1ly didn't cap this game poorly at all.  I mean, look at some of the crap the Broncos did in the first half and they are only down 10 at this point.  They have actually out played the Chargers.  As a sports bettor you can only cap the game how you see it and if stupid crap (like Decker tripping over his own feet) happens, then nothing you can do about it.
 
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Posted: #61
Crunk, do you honestly believe that the San Diego produced all 24 points?  A pick 6 is not an offensive touchdown, and I hardly give credit to a drive that starts at the 15 after a muffed kick.  Footballs have a strange shape my friend, no mathematical model can predict fumbled kickoffs or pick-6's.. but they're part of the game nonetheless.  I do not presume to know the future.  It's a fact I've accepted after years of gambling on the NFL.  I can only do my best with the information I've collected before the game starts.  Everything after is beyond my control.
 
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Posted: #62
Well ive posted b4 i think silly is one of the best cappers on here/// while else would i be in his threads ..calm down folks
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by BigTenWatto:

Eric Decker just decided to screw you Silly. 10-7? Nah, 17-0. Sounds much better. To bed before half-time. Always next week.



shut the fuck up idiot
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by crunkballbettor:

silly fail .. His data does not compute this week  One with the giants ..2 with the raiders and 3 with the broncos fail fail. Better luck next week ...


get lost idiot silly is the man
 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66
GL the rest of the way... should be a great finish.
 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Here's a very long story as short as I can make it:

I am convinced that the best way to profit at sports gambling is to exclusively bet on games where there is 'value' between the true winning probability and margin of victory (W% and MOV are highly correlated variables historically) and the vegas moneyline and spread.

My models take advanced stats and with the help of logisitc regression modeling, I am able to determine what the projected winning percentage and margin of victory for a game using specific advanced data sets.  For the NFL, these datasets are at the top of the breakdown sheet and have to do with score, yards/point, yards/play, yards/att, yards/rush as well as cumulative power ranking.

In the NFL, limited data sample size is a constant battle.  Right now, teams have only played 150 minutes on both sides of the ball against only 5 different teams.  Hardly a significant set to draw concrete conclusions from and since the level of competition can be drastically different from team to team using non-normalized data can be very misleading.

The Relative Performance Index (RPI), is an advanced way of looking at the score and efficincy stats I mentioned above.  These numbers are normalized to the level of competition.

For example, the Chargers score 24.8 points per game which is the #13 most in the NFL.  However, the 4 opponents that they've played combined average giving up 29.2 points per game.  Thus the Chargers are performing -4.4 points less than what would be expected.  This value ranks #28 in the league.  So while it seems on the surface that the Chargers are a high scoring team, in reality, their offense is under-performing by an average of 4.4 points per game.  That's a big difference that can only be determined by normalizing the level of competition.

My models use these RPI values to predict the true winning percentage - which is converted into a moneyline - and a margin of victory - which is converted into a spread.  I compare these numbers to what Vegas puts out to determine which lines have 'value' and which lines are sharp.  I don't bet on any sharp lines, because the house has all the advantage and I'll end up losing the juice in the long run - i.e. the commission that sportsbooks charge you to place action with them.

Additionally, I filter these 'value' lines even further down to a select few games that fit my risk profile and other situational variables that mathematical models can't account for.  I do this for the NBA, the MLB and the NFL.

Thanks for that information! It's starting to make more since now. If you don't mind, I have another question. At what point do you determine to make a play? For example, Denver was favored by 4 and the Under was 45. The line being 4 points off and the under being 3.5 points off. At what point do you decide to pull the trigger on a play? Thanks again for the explanation.

 

 
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Posted: #68

the  halftime line for broncos tt over 13  1/2 kept moving  from -130  TO 140 TO 150 TO 160 in the space of like 30 seconds on 5dimes  so i said fuck it and got broncos -5  1/2   for   -110

 

 
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Posted: #69

Quote Originally Posted by crunkballbettor:

At this rate ill be eating crow

doesnt matter either way   you r still a turd  that won't change

 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by cjonesin20:

Thanks for that information! It's starting to make more since now. If you don't mind, I have another question. At what point do you determine to make a play? For example, Denver was favored by 4 and the Under was 45. The line being 4 points off and the under being 3.5 points off. At what point do you decide to pull the trigger on a play? Thanks again for the explanation.

 


I typically don't make any plays based on the projections alone.  Especially this early in the season when the data set is as small as allowable to even run the model in the first place.  The sheets accomplish two goals for me.  One, it simply collects and organizes the specific data that I want to look at for a given match-up.  Two, it computes that data into a projected spread and moneyline to determine value.  From there, the handicapping process can begin.  I publish the sheets so that everyone has the same opportunity that I have to use the information to make well-informed bets on games that have loose lines.  What determines a play from the sheets is entirely up to the user.  For me, I look at far too many aspects of the game to explain in a short post.  The best I can tell you is that the sheets are my starting point.  A starting point that took years of research and software writing to get to.

 
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Posted: #71
HOLY SHIT SI1LY
 
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Posted: #72
24/29 for 309 yards 3TD / 1INT - yeah, Manning has trouble with the 3-4 and he sucks against the Chargers..

 
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Posted: #73
Love it!!
 
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Posted: #74
 
 
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Posted: #75
Silly getting a laugh but let's make sure Broncos finish the Chargers up!
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