Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
Here's a very long story as short as I can make it:
I am convinced that the best way to profit at sports gambling is to exclusively bet on games where there is 'value' between the true winning probability and margin of victory (W% and MOV are highly correlated variables historically) and the vegas moneyline and spread.
My models take advanced stats and with the help of logisitc regression modeling, I am able to determine what the projected winning percentage and margin of victory for a game using specific advanced data sets. For the NFL, these datasets are at the top of the breakdown sheet and have to do with score, yards/point, yards/play, yards/att, yards/rush as well as cumulative power ranking.
In the NFL, limited data sample size is a constant battle. Right now, teams have only played 150 minutes on both sides of the ball against only 5 different teams. Hardly a significant set to draw concrete conclusions from and since the level of competition can be drastically different from team to team using non-normalized data can be very misleading.
The Relative Performance Index (RPI), is an advanced way of looking at the score and efficincy stats I mentioned above. These numbers are normalized to the level of competition.
For example, the Chargers score 24.8 points per game which is the #13 most in the NFL. However, the 4 opponents that they've played combined average giving up 29.2 points per game. Thus the Chargers are performing -4.4 points less than what would be expected. This value ranks #28 in the league. So while it seems on the surface that the Chargers are a high scoring team, in reality, their offense is under-performing by an average of 4.4 points per game. That's a big difference that can only be determined by normalizing the level of competition.
My models use these RPI values to predict the true winning percentage - which is converted into a moneyline - and a margin of victory - which is converted into a spread. I compare these numbers to what Vegas puts out to determine which lines have 'value' and which lines are sharp. I don't bet on any sharp lines, because the house has all the advantage and I'll end up losing the juice in the long run - i.e. the commission that sportsbooks charge you to place action with them.
Additionally, I filter these 'value' lines even further down to a select few games that fit my risk profile and other situational variables that mathematical models can't account for. I do this for the NBA, the MLB and the NFL.
This is simply amazing. You laid it out similarly in the mlb forum and if I was smarter I would comment more specifically but, since I am not, I will merely tail. Good luck and keep it up. It is so amazing to not only have picks thrown out but, also to be educated along the way.
I used your sheets to great advantage in mlb after I discovered them in August. Thanks again.
with you on Denver +1.5...go Broncos
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