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49 ers are +3.5 dog

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Posts: 58

edwardglennx3

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 707

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 1:01 AM ET #26

I just unleashed the bankroll on my first 2 plays next week,,,,,,

I got the Saints at -3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

who can pass that up!!!!!! Seems so easy

My second play i also got good value on.....

The Niners Taking 3 at home!!!!!! WTH????????

seems to good to be true!!!

edwardglennx3

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 707

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 1:04 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by Mako77:

2 weeks to prepare for a team that they knew they would face at home tells me that SF is the play - unless the public hammers SF - then it's a no play IMO

uh....the saints aren't gonna lose if the public bets on them

if they lose its because they got out played,,,,so basically you're saying everyone in San Fran should go bet on the saints to give them better chances to win???

degengambler34

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 3661

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 1:13 AM ET #28

Candlestick park, ah, put thee out of thee misery already. Saints offense will be their defense, making alex smith have to play qb

instead of game manager will be the plan. Niners do NOT have big playmakers, and having to settle for fg's instead of touchdowns against this saints team is going to cost them.

Sure the saints defense looked bad tonight. But they were playing the lions with calvin johnson. I'm here to tell you that michael crabtree is NO calving johnson, not even close.

SAINTS -3, Easiest play in a while for me, even if i lose i feel confident knowing my money is in drew brees' and sean paytons hands, And not in alex smiths hands.

Defense used to win championships, but the rules have changed if you guys haven't noticed. Saints win by 10.

dimndimn

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 5291

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 1:42 AM ET #29

Drew brees will be all the talk for this matchup. Unfortunately detroit made him look REALLY good tonight. So many missed tackles and poor defense that SF just doesnt do. NO will be lucky to put up 24 on SF.. SF ML will be my play

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:24 AM ET #30

big niner, baker and smartbets have some collaboration goin for this game....and the last time we had this, we had a 20 pt cover.

Stay Tuned....

LTE23

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 2954

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:25 AM ET #31

SF played them real tough last year at home should of won the GAME SU if it wasnt for a Dropped catch by Delane walker b4 half time. Could be a real tough day for Brees with a REAL Defense he has to face. Face it the Bucs gave them trouble on Grass. Just not sold on Turf teams playing on Grass especially that SF Grass

JakeLake720

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Joined: Mar, 2007

Posts: 4992

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:25 AM ET #32

Not a chance you get a 20 point cover..this will be a tight game..but good luck..

LTE23

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 2954

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:27 AM ET #33

SF is a different team at home when it comes to this new attitude they have. New Coach New Defense New Era.

+3.5 for ME at home. Brees has been known to struggle against Quality D. He lost to packers. Lost to ST. Louis Back up

Aalon

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 641

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:31 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by Mako77:

2 weeks to prepare for a team that they knew they would face at home tells me that SF is the play - unless the public hammers SF - then it's a no play IMO

2 weeks can't improve your talent level. The Saints have already tweaked their O-line to handle teams that have good ends that bring pressure. They'll also be sick of hearing about how they suck outdoors on grass. Saints D will be looking fo redemption as well and they usually do well against average/sub-par QBs.

The 49ers really haven't shut down any teams that can throw it well all year long either. Vick went for 415 on them.

Saints run D also a factor.

Don't think too hard on this one.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:36 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by JakeLake720:

Not a chance you get a 20 point cover..this will be a tight game..but good luck..

Re read what I said amigo.

I said the last time, we got a 20 pt cover.

Stay tuned....

PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:40 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by LTE23:

SF is a different team at home when it comes to this new attitude they have. New Coach New Defense New Era.

+3.5 for ME at home. Brees has been known to struggle against Quality D. He lost to packers. Lost to ST. Louis Back up

LTE, yes the Saints lost to the 0-6 Rams way back but since that game, the Saints have won & covered every game up to this point.............I believe that loss to the Rams was their wake up call.......needless to say, it should be a great game.............

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:48 AM ET #37

it doesn't matter what the saints are "hearing" the bottom line is this is the squad that lost to not only the rams

but also to the bucs

...this team also had to come from behind in the 2nd half in tennessee....now they get to play a team that leads in takeaways.

saints get lots of homecooking, and they sure got it tonight....

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:53 AM ET #38

this team can "hear" all they want and get "motivated" all they want, but at the end of the day they have not shown any improvements playing on the road this season. They play well at home, not so much on the road.

Team that wins the turnover battle often win the game....in fact I have the number right here....119-24-3 ATS (83.2%) dating back to 1993.

That info is nothing new, but now I have factual evidence for you to look at.

And like I said earlier, the saints are now going t play a team who has led the league in takeaways.

Stay tuned for more...

714cuzzin

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 12653

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:55 AM ET #39

My first thought for this game is the under

Idk

bearinvegas

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 251

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 2:58 AM ET #40

I thought it would be 3, not a big surprise to me.

YouWish

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 1684

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:01 AM ET #41

NO ave points scored @ home: 41.1

NO ave points allowed @ home: 17.8

NO ave points scored on road: 27.25

NO ave points allowed on road: 24.5

SF ave points scored @ home: 27.6

SF ave points allowed @ home: 10.8

So the Saints ave 14 points less on the road than at home and they allow 7 more points on road than at home.

As mentioned above, Saints lost to some questionable teams on the road (Stl, TB) and came close two other times (Ten, Car).

Looks like an SF pick so far to me..

Aalon

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 641

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:08 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:

this team also had to come from behind in the 2nd half in tennessee

Lost all credibility with that statement. Go back and pay attention to the box score more carefully...

composite

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4418

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:11 AM ET #43

Quote Originally Posted by tonyrome:

Already got mine locked in Saints -3 ONLY PLAY....even if you lose you are a fool for not taking it...especially if you were dumb enough to take the Lions today.

This is the dumbest fucking comment I've ever read.

I was on the Saints today, but I love 49ers next week. Saints aren't as good on the road. Niners' D is much better than Detroit's.

Aalon

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 641

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:12 AM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by YouWish:

NO ave points scored @ home: 41.1

NO ave points allowed @ home: 17.8

NO ave points scored on road: 27.25

NO ave points allowed on road: 24.5

SF ave points scored @ home: 27.6

SF ave points allowed @ home: 10.8

So the Saints ave 14 points less on the road than at home and they allow 7 more points on road than at home.

As mentioned above, Saints lost to some questionable teams on the road (Stl, TB) and came close two other times (Ten, Car).

Looks like an SF pick so far to me..

Unless the Saints and 49ers played the exact samw schedule, the above is meaningless. Last I checked the 49ers have the joy of being in the NFC West.

Here is something more meaningful. Against playoff teams:

Saints - 6-1

49ers - 3-1

I'd take the more battle tested, more playoff experienced team here.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:14 AM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by Aalon:

Lost all credibility with that statement. Go back and pay attention to the box score more carefully...

I was going by memory, but since I went to look back....the saints were ahead by 3 points....and won the game by 1 point. It still prove my point about this team.

smartbets

Captain

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 8526

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:18 AM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by Aalon:

Unless the Saints and 49ers played the exact samw schedule, the above is meaningless. Last I checked the 49ers have the joy of being in the NFC West.

Here is something more meaningful. Against playoff teams:

Saints - 6-1

49ers - 3-1

I'd take the more battle tested, more playoff experienced team here.

same could be said for the nfc south.

you have atlanta at 10-6....could have easily been a split, had one game in ot....however saints won that game.

Then you have the 6-10 panthers....and the 4-12 bucs....who new orleans lost to....

oh and since you wanna point out the nfc west....those 2-14 rams beat the saints by DD.

YouWish

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 1684

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:25 AM ET #47

Quote Originally Posted by Aalon:

Unless the Saints and 49ers played the exact samw schedule, the above is meaningless. Last I checked the 49ers have the joy of being in the NFC West.

Here is something more meaningful. Against playoff teams:

Saints - 6-1

49ers - 3-1

I'd take the more battle tested, more playoff experienced team here.

One of the biggest stories of this game will be how the Saints are different away from home. That's what I'm looking at here. It's pretty damn significant..

And the better D as a home dog is always significant..

BrassStones

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2007

Posts: 2196

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 3:56 AM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by mrbelvidere2010:

Will be a tough game but I think the value is on the Saints. SF in the redzone kicks way too many FG's. saints for me

SF does kick FG's 60% of the time, but vs. this SAINTS D that gives up 60% TD's in the red-zone, I think it will be aight.

Stevedore

Prospect

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 473

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 6:48 AM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by Marinofan:

DON'T BET AGAINST BREES!!!!!!!! He has that look

in his eyes as if he knows they r going to win at all

times. 4th down and 1 on their own 40!!!! Really

Really.... Unbelievable. And a quarterback sneak at

that. He has the swagger that Brady had until he ran into a white hot Giants team. Their is no David Tyree this year.

Speaking of the Giants. Love em tomorrow!!!!

LOL, just crown them already. Not having home field advantage will do the Saints in, they don't have the defense to win two in a row on the road.

They gave up 28 at home to the Lions, how many do you think GB will score on the Saints defense at Lambeau?

Niners13

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Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 1737

Posted: Jan. 8, 2012 - 10:37 AM ET #50

Quote Originally Posted by Aalon:

The 49ers really haven't shut down any teams that can throw it well all year long either. Vick went for 415 on them.

Saints run D also a factor.

Don't think too hard on this one.

They can talk all they want about playing better on grass/road, fact is they can't.

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