2023 year long NFL plays and thoughts

Preseason is finally over. Now we can have some serious discussion on real football. I just don't understand betting preseason. Not condemning you if you do bet preseason.

I don't understand how you handicap players that won't be in the NFL Wednesday. Enough.

1st week is always hard, in my opinion. Go lightly. Free agents, top draft picks, how will they all play together. New coaches, coordinators. But every team is 0-0 and excited.

I'll give my week 1 picks when it gets closer. Today lets talk about futures.

I don't do a lot of futures. The one's I do are long shots. Remember that.

1. Atlanta to win NFC South. +210

NFC South can be anybody's guess. TB lost Brady, Carolina has new QB and lost McCaffrey. NO is favored and I think Carr is an upgrade at QB.

Atlanta: Ridder is in his second year. Things will slow down for him. Coach Smith 3rd year usually a good year. Atlanta has the second easiest schedule. They used free agency to shore up their defense with many veterans. Not good for the future, but good for us this year. DT Campbell, DE Dupree, DB Okudah, Safety Bates, DL Onyemata, LB Ellis. Offensively they had a top 5 OL. RB Robinson is a beast and Patterson and Allgeire are strong complements. They did not address the passing game.  Miller and Hollin are OK. London is a good one. TE Pitt should have a come back season.

Interesting stat:   In 17 games, the Falcons either won or lost by one score or less in 15 of the 17 games.
Only two teams were “in” more games than the Falcons last year: the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs and the 13-3 Buffalo Bills.

Next we will talk about Steelers.

Pittsburgh to win NFC North +470

NFC North is a tough division. Someone can win this division with a 9-8 record.

Their starting OL did not miss a game all year. Even so, they added good football players to the OL. LT Broderick Jones in their 1st round pick, LG Isaac Seumalo from Eagles, RT Le'Raven and G Nate Herbig. They added Joey Porter Jr. to the secondary, along with Patrick Peterson. I believe Pickens and Pickett will be a dynamic duo. I think Pat Freiermuth is a monster TE and will be a big red zone threat. Harris is a good RB. Tomlin has never had a losing season, so 9-8 is possible.

We are getting 5-1 for our money.  Lets roll the dice. Remember, this are long shots.

In regards to capping NFLX, the biggest factor imo is how good the teams depth is at QB and how seriously the franchise treats the exhibition process…of course all teams are evaluating their roster, but if you look back there are certain teams that weigh winning more than others.

Good luck on your futures.

@tahoejoe2

Totally agree with you about Pittsburgh and winning the AFC North. Only thing that holds me back is that last year Kenny Pickett twice missed games because of blows to the head.
I have zero faith in their QB #2 Mitch Trubisky.  His presence might be their only team weakness but is a potential season ender. A big, strong dude who can run but he can't read defenses and he has serious trouble hitting open receivers downfield. 

Last Division future.

Minnesota Vikings +260

Detroit over hyped, Chicago one year too early. GB good, but not good enough.

Minnesota won a lot of games last year.  Everyone is saying they were close games they should have lost.  But they didn't!

Cousins is an above average QB. Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL. #1 pick Addison will give Jefferson some breathing room. Hockenson just got a big contract he should be good.

In free agency they made no big splashes but got a CB and 2 DE under 30.  They let go of a few older players.

Hiring of Flores will make a big difference on this defense. They lost a none blitzing coach to an aggressive blitzing coach.

3 long shot division winners.

Now onto week one. Heading up to Reno Thursday to watch week one. I'll have my suggested bets by Wednesday. Good luck to everyone this season.

Week one Selections: Remember, week 1 is very difficult. New coaches, coordinators, free agents and draft picks. Go Slow.

I'm going to start at the end. Buffalo 1st half -1.

Buffalo is a good 1st half team. Not a lot of new players. Jets just the opposite. Lots of new players. Jets could win the game, but they will come from behind if that happens.

Jets scored only 41 first quarter points last year, in 17 games. Less than 3 points.

Last year at Buffalo, Jets were shutout. At NY, Bills lead by 3 at the half and lost.

good info 

New Orleans -3 (by the 1/2) vs Tenn.

The Saints have the easiest schedule of any team. They will face 9 "bottom tier" teams. They play 13 games in domes.

NO at home is the play. I know , I like Atlanta to win the division. Falcons have the 2nd easiest schedule.

Coach Allen drafted Carr in 2014. Carr is a huge upgrade at QB. Jamal Williams is a good RB until Kamara gets back.

D was a top 10 unit last year. They lost some good players, but got good replacements. Cam Jordan is still around

Tenn shored up their OL, but I don't like Tannehill. I think he will be replaced soon. WR are weak. Phillips is out and Burke is banged up. Yea, they got Hopkins.

Farley their CD is out.

Last bet for week one. Again, I know we are all excited, but relax.

Since I bet Atlanta to win the NFC South, I better take them to beat a division rival. Atlanta -3(buy the 1/2)

Same reasons as above. Lot of veterans on D. Great OL and running game with #1 pick Robinson. I like 2nd year QB's. Pickett in Pittsburg is another good one.

Caroline no longer has McCaffery, Sanders is OK. Edge Burns is out . Also LB Haynes. #1 WR DJ Moore is gone, along with many draft picks. Chark and Thieles will never replace him.  I hope this QB is worth it. Is his size an issue?  Look at Tre Lance in SF. SF got a 4th round pick form Dallas. Very sad.

Heading to Reno Thursday with the boys to watch some football.. Good luck to everyone this year.

Joe wouldn’t betting the over on Atlanta RSW’s be the best bet? I think it’s 8.5-9?

@haymo

 I like the odds better on Atlanta winning the division.

True joe but more likely to win, no IMO. Also Jets 1st quarter scoring last year totally irrelevant!! Look at QB’s!!!!

What sports book in Reno do you go to TJ?

@Cooler999

 Peppermill

@haymo

 I believe 9 games wins the NFC South. Atl over 9 -130.  Atl. win div. +210. The goal is the same. Get to 9 wins.  I told you these are long shots.

Buffalo is a 1st half team in my opinion.  Jets slow to start games. To me it has more to do with coaches(mostly same patterns as LY) rather than QB.  Hacket coached Broncos LY.   Different QB, but not fast starts.

@Buffalobob89074

 I agree. If Pickett goes down, we are in trouble. But I think you could say that about any starting QB.  But I agree Mitch Trubisky stinks.

TJ 

Atlanta covers

NO wins, but doesn't cover.

Tonight. Bulls 1st half -1.

2-1 ytd.

Bills 1st half -1

Good start to an always tough opening weekend.

Sad what happened to Rodgers.  He is good for the sport.  I hope he gets back quickly.

Week 2

Giants -5.5

With all the experts saying NYG would be better this year. Did we all get it wrong? Nah.

Giants played a good Dallas D. Sloppy conditions for both teams. Bottom line: It happens. They are headed to a climate controlled stadium

Daball is too good a coach to let this happen. Giants will use the running game more (research the Under). D line will dominate.

They won't have 5 fumbles and one lost.  Two missed FG. Seven sacks.  Two INT.    Not against Arizona.

Arizona is really tanking.  Dobbs, a member of the team for a couple of weeks and starts?  Why not put the rookie in?

An angry and embarrassed Giants team wins.

Detroit -4.5

If the Rams can score 30 on Seattle in Seattle, Detroit can score 40 at home. Can Seattle keep up? They did last

year. 48-45 in Detroit. I just don't see it this year.  I believe Smith talks a step back.

Seattle playing East at 10am PST. Not good. Missing some OL tackles. Safety Adams still out.

Detroit coach won't let the KC game go to Detroit's head. But could be a trap with the line going from -6 to -4.5. I'm willing to gamble.

The KC game impressed me. My Minn. to win the division can be in trouble. I hope to get my money back with this bet.

No time for write up.

Tampa Bay -2.5

@tahoejoe2

 I will do a TB writeup for you,  Most of the forum on da bears  

@DoYouMind69

TB -2.5

Det. -4.5

Giants-5.5. Lets make it another profitable weekend.

Week 2: 1-2

YTD: 3-3  Another week where we win a game, but don't cover(NYG)

Maybe some ML next week.

Maybe a Monday night game?