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All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

2 team teasers -120 +EV...Lets do some math.

«First Previous 12
spottie2935
unplucked_gem
hoody
jowchoo
DogbiteWilliams
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«First Previous 12
 
spottie2935
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Posted: Jun. 8, 2025 - 5:31 AM ET #26

@jowchoo

 Let’s just leave to personal stuff and the past alone.  Move on and just keep it about data making money and success. 

 

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@jowchoo

 Let’s just leave to personal stuff and the past alone.  Move on and just keep it about data making money and success. 

 

 
spottie2935
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Posted: Jun. 8, 2025 - 5:34 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

season>=2024 and t:RY/PY>o:RY/PY and A and p:HL and week<13 and line<7     (19-1)

 

 

im not interesting in short term queries.  You could certainly see in my thread I pay no attention to them.  I really have enough data and successful queries. The queries I posted in my thread I have never used.  I may add a few of them to my lists 

 

I never expose my list so I can get my best bets and lines they way I like. 

you sharp guys might make my job more difficult,  I respect that’s watching and trying to be successful and keep growing.  


I probably won’t post a thread this year. Too many posts in the forum anyway.  Then I get connected with idiots and fleas tgat won’t go away and disturb my thinking.  I don’t need all that.  Maybe in a few years after I post a thread.  Right now not interested in NFL postings 

 

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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

season>=2024 and t:RY/PY>o:RY/PY and A and p:HL and week<13 and line<7     (19-1)

 

 

im not interesting in short term queries.  You could certainly see in my thread I pay no attention to them.  I really have enough data and successful queries. The queries I posted in my thread I have never used.  I may add a few of them to my lists 

 

I never expose my list so I can get my best bets and lines they way I like. 

you sharp guys might make my job more difficult,  I respect that’s watching and trying to be successful and keep growing.  


I probably won’t post a thread this year. Too many posts in the forum anyway.  Then I get connected with idiots and fleas tgat won’t go away and disturb my thinking.  I don’t need all that.  Maybe in a few years after I post a thread.  Right now not interested in NFL postings 

 

 
unplucked_gem
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Posted: Jun. 18, 2025 - 12:34 PM ET #28

Tried to stick with this thread, but lost a little interest. 

My question is whether you're suggesting pairing 2+ plays and still laying -120?

 

Don't let the book set the number
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Tried to stick with this thread, but lost a little interest. 

My question is whether you're suggesting pairing 2+ plays and still laying -120?

 

 
hoody
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Posted: Jun. 18, 2025 - 8:06 PM ET #29

[Quote: Originally Posted by jowchoo]Thanks indigo, as you know I respect your opinion. It is much appreciated. Trying to find the right query for how the defending SB winner fares in week 1, it escapes me how to look back to last years' filters? Does bet sizing occupy any of your research?..........gl in your S. American adventure.[/Quote

Is it something like this week=1 and tpS(PO)=4 and day=Thursday (I believe most SB winners have been playing on Thursdays for some time now, but I could be wrong.

It will be different if you put =3 and leave the day out you'll get more games, you'll see when you plug it in.

Are you looking for certain S/U % when you plug in your query? 

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[Quote: Originally Posted by jowchoo]Thanks indigo, as you know I respect your opinion. It is much appreciated. Trying to find the right query for how the defending SB winner fares in week 1, it escapes me how to look back to last years' filters? Does bet sizing occupy any of your research?..........gl in your S. American adventure.[/Quote

Is it something like this week=1 and tpS(PO)=4 and day=Thursday (I believe most SB winners have been playing on Thursdays for some time now, but I could be wrong.

It will be different if you put =3 and leave the day out you'll get more games, you'll see when you plug it in.

Are you looking for certain S/U % when you plug in your query? 

 
hoody
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Posted: Jun. 18, 2025 - 8:16 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

Part 3: 2 team teaser -120  HF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Eagles indicates that over the last 4 years the Eagles are (12-1) SU (92%) as HOME DIVISIONAL FAVORITES   AD and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Giants and total>39 indicates that the Giants are (1-9) 10% or 90% the other way as AWAY DIVISIONAL DOGS   so, we have (92%x90%)=83% for success. This compares to break even of 74%, a significant +EV   There are different opinions on what sample size is needed to be relevant,that is subjective, I have been leaning to smaller sample sizes, last 3 or 4 years in many cases. There are many historical cappers who I respect who will not even give the trend with that small of sample size any consideration. As I discuss with indigo, DBW and hoody who value larger sizes, I would like to be early on developing trends but I am aware that these can regress, so NOTHING IS FOR SURE!   So in summary: After teasing Eagles and Commanders to -.5,you are now playing them to just win the game with significant +EV.   Guarantee, hell no Hurts or Daniels could break an ankle on the first series.   Bet sizing is really for me the unproven and interesting variable and I welcome any insights in this regard!

This is why I asked.

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Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

Part 3: 2 team teaser -120  HF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Eagles indicates that over the last 4 years the Eagles are (12-1) SU (92%) as HOME DIVISIONAL FAVORITES   AD and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Giants and total>39 indicates that the Giants are (1-9) 10% or 90% the other way as AWAY DIVISIONAL DOGS   so, we have (92%x90%)=83% for success. This compares to break even of 74%, a significant +EV   There are different opinions on what sample size is needed to be relevant,that is subjective, I have been leaning to smaller sample sizes, last 3 or 4 years in many cases. There are many historical cappers who I respect who will not even give the trend with that small of sample size any consideration. As I discuss with indigo, DBW and hoody who value larger sizes, I would like to be early on developing trends but I am aware that these can regress, so NOTHING IS FOR SURE!   So in summary: After teasing Eagles and Commanders to -.5,you are now playing them to just win the game with significant +EV.   Guarantee, hell no Hurts or Daniels could break an ankle on the first series.   Bet sizing is really for me the unproven and interesting variable and I welcome any insights in this regard!

This is why I asked.

 
jowchoo
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Posted: Jun. 18, 2025 - 9:17 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by hoody:

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

Thanks indigo, as you know I respect your opinion. It is much appreciated. Trying to find the right query for how the defending SB winner fares in week 1, it escapes me how to look back to last years' filters? Does bet sizing occupy any of your research?..........gl in your S. American adventure.[/Quote Is it something like this week=1 and tpS(PO)=4 and day=Thursday (I believe most SB winners have been playing on Thursdays for some time now, but I could be wrong. It will be different if you put =3 and leave the day out you'll get more games, you'll see when you plug it in. Are you looking for certain S/U % when you plug in your query?

 

Thx hoody, it was tpS(PO) that I forgot;

week=1 and tpS(PO)=3 and HF and 53>total>40.5 and line>-8  (11-2) SU    Washington :-)

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Quote Originally Posted by hoody:

Quote Originally Posted by jowchoo:

Thanks indigo, as you know I respect your opinion. It is much appreciated. Trying to find the right query for how the defending SB winner fares in week 1, it escapes me how to look back to last years' filters? Does bet sizing occupy any of your research?..........gl in your S. American adventure.[/Quote Is it something like this week=1 and tpS(PO)=4 and day=Thursday (I believe most SB winners have been playing on Thursdays for some time now, but I could be wrong. It will be different if you put =3 and leave the day out you'll get more games, you'll see when you plug it in. Are you looking for certain S/U % when you plug in your query?

 

Thx hoody, it was tpS(PO) that I forgot;

week=1 and tpS(PO)=3 and HF and 53>total>40.5 and line>-8  (11-2) SU    Washington :-)

 
DogbiteWilliams
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Posted: Jun. 24, 2025 - 3:50 AM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

p:ats margin<-6 and week=2 and ats margin>=-6   p:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and pp:ats margin<-6   and as you stated it hasnt happened often   only 20 times in the database has any team failed to cover a teaser in one of the first 3 weeks   p:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and pp:ats margin<-6 and ats margin<-6   p:ats margin<-6 and week=4 and pp:ats margin<-6 and ppp:ats margin<-6

That looks like a current game parameter.

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Quote Originally Posted by spottie2935:

p:ats margin<-6 and week=2 and ats margin>=-6   p:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and pp:ats margin<-6   and as you stated it hasnt happened often   only 20 times in the database has any team failed to cover a teaser in one of the first 3 weeks   p:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and pp:ats margin<-6 and ats margin<-6   p:ats margin<-6 and week=4 and pp:ats margin<-6 and ppp:ats margin<-6

That looks like a current game parameter.

 
 
spottie2935
spottie2935
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Posted: Jun. 24, 2025 - 4:28 AM ET #33

@DogbiteWilliams

 That’s exactly correct.  I was making a point about current results, in which you missed the point on.   I find teasers a waste of time I’ll just move on.  

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@DogbiteWilliams

 That’s exactly correct.  I was making a point about current results, in which you missed the point on.   I find teasers a waste of time I’ll just move on.  

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