2 team teasers -120 +EV...Lets do some math.

Part 1.

Wong in his 2001 "Sharp Sports Betting" shed some light on +EV teaser wagers.

Although outdated still a fine read imo.

This is for the punters who care about increasing their ROI (return on investment) and have a business like approach

to sports wagering. This discussion will not interest emotional, recent bias obsessed, prime time bettors.

Up to last year I have kept my +EV teaser plays to myself. My bankroll has increased every year for over a decade.

Since the industry moved their juice higher 2 years ago, it is now a moot point. The informed +EV teaser crowd is now

forced to share some of their gains with the greedy books. I saw it coming, as with anything a good thing gets exploited.

Anyways, I lifted the curtain on my approach last year and posted 750+2 team teaser plays hitting 61.2% which was

better than my long term rate (58.7%). In part 2 I will go into the math and show you how +EV will protect your betting bankroll.

Can I impart some wisdom on when to use teasers ?  It sure isn't in the beginning of the season when lines are likely to be a bit looser, compared to later in the year when lines are tighter and more data is available ( for the books).

Part 2.   "The Math"

In order for -110 a player needs to hit higher than 52.4%  (juice divided by juice + 100)

110/210=54.2%

Now for -120 ( the price books charge for 2 team 6 point teasers) you get

120/220=54.4%   and 125/225=55.5%  you can still find these prices for 6 and 6.5 teasers.

It should go without saying that anywhere that grades a WIN and TIE as a LOSS instead of NO ACTION is not an option.

Now, to the EV part.

If the win% of team A after the tease times the win% of team b after the tease is greater than the break even %,then bingo=+EV

For -120 you get: (team A %win) x (team B %win)>55

for 125 you get : (Awin% x Bwin%) > 56 before the play is +EV

Using the data base and SDQL procols,killersports and GimmeTheDog have greatly expanded the

usable candidates for me. I am very aggressive wagering wise and suppose less than 1% of the gamblers

would even consider this approach.Regression (sides and totals) of the teams' ats records is the glue that holds

this system together. It begins to play out starting in week 5.      Part 3 an example for your consideration.

Yes !  ALL insights are encouraged.This style needs a working relationship with SDQL protocols which is burdensome but doable.

As far as when these teasers are usable imo the time of the year is meaningless. I will give an example shortly.

Part 3:

2 team teaser -120 

HF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Eagles

indicates that over the last 4 years the Eagles are (12-1) SU (92%)

as HOME DIVISIONAL FAVORITES

AD and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Giants and total>39

indicates that the Giants are (1-9) 10% or 90% the other way

as AWAY DIVISIONAL DOGS

so, we have (92%x90%)=83% for success. This compares to break even of 74%, a significant +EV

There are different opinions on what sample size is needed to be relevant,that is subjective, I have been leaning

to smaller sample sizes, last 3 or 4 years in many cases. There are many historical cappers who I respect who will not

even give the trend with that small of sample size any consideration. As I discuss with indigo, DBW and hoody who value

larger sizes, I would like to be early on developing trends but I am aware that these can regress, so NOTHING IS FOR SURE!

So in summary: After teasing Eagles and Commanders to -.5,you are now playing them to

just win the game with significant +EV.   Guarantee, hell no Hurts or Daniels could break an ankle on the first series.

Bet sizing is really for me the unproven and interesting variable and I welcome any insights in this regard!

Think I've seen that, is that the book with two football helmets on it? Also think he had a newer one.

You had an excellent year last year, and proof that one can have their eyes opened to a new way of thinking.

I wish you well in the coming season.....last season, in my eyes was not a common year in the NFL with some very long-term tendencies that did not continue as what would have been expected, but of course, it could be the new normal....we will see soon enough.

There will be HUGE differences of  opinion between like-minded people almost always, where we hold onto things that we hold sacred.  That can be hardheaded in gambling, in investing and things where money is involved.....and it can be costly to hold onto things that could be let go, when another way is discovered.  The man (Semmelweis) that discovered that washing hands was expedient before delivering babies was subsequently barred from doing medicine a few hundred years ago, despite the fact that infant mortality rates plummeted when those delivering babies adopted antiseptic methods prior to delivery.

I will look on to your choices with interest,...as you well know I am not convinced that 10 game samples are predictive, with multiple filters,.......as you would be aware, this is called "backfitting" in the investment world and technical traders are warned against using it as way to beat the markets.  Killersports used to put out a list of "perfect" queries that ranged from 8-12 game sample sizes related to each team's games for that week....I followed it for a couple of years, and they never achieved anything but a 50-50 success rate.

It may well be that the secret sauce is the use of teasers in the NFL, rather than the actual queries themselves, as NFL football spreads are notoriously tight....that could be "it",.............OR maybe it isn't.

We'll soon see....stay humble but confident, ("pride cometh before a fall", etc.).......there will be those that will be jealous of your success, in the  possibility that it continues on...

Thanks indigo, as you know I respect your opinion. It is much appreciated.

Trying to find the right query for how the defending SB winner fares in week 1, it escapes me how to look back to last years' filters?

Does bet sizing occupy any of your research?..........gl in your S. American adventure.

@Indigo999

 The man (Semmelweis) that discovered that washing hands was expedient before delivering babies was subsequently barred from doing medicine a few hundred years ago, despite the fact that infant mortality rates plummeted when those delivering babies adopted antiseptic methods prior to delivery.

Amazingly enough, that was not a few hundred years ago.  That was just in the 1840s/1850s. I have always thought it hard to believe it took that long.

Part 4:

Range of outcomes for my two Anchors.

A: best case (Win,Win)...(92%x90%)=82.8%

B: worst case(Lose,Lose)...(10%x10%)=01%

C: (Win, Lose) (Lose,Win)...(10%x91%)x2=18.2

I absolutely love week 1 anchor teasers this year. We have the SB champs home opener is against

a hated DIVISION rivalry who missed the playoffs last year with no established rushing game.The house will be

rocking. PHILLY obviously less likely to overlook this opponent than versus a non conference team.

In Washington we have a rookie QB starting his career on the ROAD with a non playoff team versus a rising

playoff team with a very exciting young QB. The Giants also have no established running game and should struggle mightily.

The satellites: 

Defined as a collection of +EV teased candidates. These will be paired with each anchor and generally hit between (70%-80%)

Lets use the middle 75%, and for this discussion the list will be 25 long.

So,

in the best case we will have: (19-6) x2 winners=(38-12)= 38-(12x1.20)=+23.6 in 82.6%

in the worst case we have (-25x1.20) x 2=-60 in 1%

in the split case we have (-19x1.2)=-22.8+6=-16.8 in 18.2%

This is HUGE +EV

I will be scraping the data bases for as many +EV candidates as the math dictates, could be 60+ plays

Part 4:

Range of outcomes for my two Anchors.

A: best case (Win,Win)...(92%x90%)=82.8%

B: worst case(Lose,Lose)...(10%x10%)=01%

C: (Win, Lose) (Lose,Win)...(10%x91%)x2=18.2

I absolutely love week 1 anchor teasers this year. We have the SB champs home opener is against

a hated DIVISION rivalry who missed the playoffs last year with no established rushing game.The house will be

rocking. PHILLY obviously less likely to overlook this opponent than versus a non conference team.

In Washington we have a rookie QB starting his career on the ROAD with a non playoff team versus a rising

playoff team with a very exciting young QB. The Giants also have no established running game and should struggle mightily.

The satellites: 

Defined as a collection of +EV teased candidates. These will be paired with each anchor and generally hit between (70%-80%)

Lets use the middle 75%, and for this discussion the list will be 25 long.

So,

in the best case we will have: (19-6) x2 winners=(38-12)= 38-(12x1.20)=+23.6 in 82.6%

in the worst case we have (-25x1.20) x 2=-60 in 1%

in the split case we have (-19x1.2)=-22.8+6=-16.8 in 18.2%

This is HUGE +EV

I will be scraping the data bases for as many +EV candidates as the math dictates, could be 60+ plays

Good research.  Thanks for the time and effort.

In order for -110 a player needs to hit higher than 52.4% (juice divided by juice + 100)

110/210=54.2%

Correction, should read 52.4%

here my little teaser man 

week=3 and p:ats margin<-6 and pp:ats margin<-6 and PRSW>3 and D

didnt cover either tease in the previous weeks

Also the week 3 teaser only made a difference in 3 games.  Eliminating the need for teasers in this situation. Finally we want to eliminate scrap teams that couldnt win 4 games the previous season.  

I would guess this will improve your teaser knowledge which might just shed more light on your way to +EV bliss

3 consecutive teaser fails in which they failed to score 30 points in their last game and their previos seaon they had more than 2 wins. Before week13 and only in away games 

no teasers needed but they help determine good plays.

tease the tem you think will win the game n i do 4 + teasers hit n 8 temaer 2 x last year also you can win money making fav biggers fav like - 6 to - 11

or dog a chalk

Friends again? OK!

Squeezing your query a bit:

week=3 and p:ats margin<-6 and pp:ats margin<-6 and PRSW>3 and D and season>2014 and line<22 = (11-0)

which is my kind of anchor teaser. Unfortunately, this angle is rare, 11 plays in 11 years.

In return I share this one for your archives:

season>2016 and AD and line

Good Luck!

should read;  season>2016 and AD and line<oA(margin)-tA(margin) and p: HL and week<7 and op:AL and 9>line>2= ( 21-0)

Good Luck

the HL needs to be back spaced 1 notch for this to work.

@jowchoo

week=3 and p:ats margin<-6 and pp:ats margin<-6 and PRSW>3 and D and season>2014 and line<22 = (11-0)

which is my kind of anchor teaser. Unfortunately, this angle is rare, 11 plays in 11 years.

So what youre saying is its rare for this query to show up?  Did you think about this more clearly?  doesnt that mean that almost all teams cover a teaser in weeks 1 or 2?

how many results if...?

week=3 and missed both week 1 and 2 teasers 

pp:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and p:ats margin<-6

week=3 and missed the first teaser 

pp:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and p:ats margin>=-6

week=3 and missed the second teaser.

pp:ats margin>=-6 and week=3 and p:ats margin<-6

so if a team misses week 1 teaser they should hit week 2

p:ats margin<-6 and week=2 and ats margin>=-6

p:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and pp:ats margin<-6

and as you stated it hasnt happened often

only 20 times in the database has any team failed to cover a teaser in one of the first 3 weeks

p:ats margin<-6 and week=3 and pp:ats margin<-6 and ats margin<-6

p:ats margin<-6 and week=4 and pp:ats margin<-6 and ppp:ats margin<-6

Since our friendship is blossoming :-), maybe this monster can help your ROI this year!

season>=2024 and t:RY/PY>o:RY/PY and A and p:HL and week<13 and line<7     (19-1)

If you like the Rodgers signing then this ROAD FAVORITE might interest you.

week=1 and season>=2024 and line<6 and D and total<48.5 and n:D   (4-0) winning by an avg of 16.5 pts

@jowchoo

 Football is back in for me.  Stay in your lane  and keep it about business and making money.  We are not friends we are business partners.  I made my point with you and it’s time to move forward.  We can and will help each other.  It’s time to move on.  Any personal talk ill cut the conversation and turn my back so I don’t disturb the forum.  

I shouldn’t  have to say be positive and be good vibes in your posts so I’ll just mention it.  Other people like to throw darts too, I just didn’t expect it from you.  Don’t apologize l, just move on and win that’s all. 

best wishes