2 team teasers -120 +EV...Lets do some math.

Part 1.

Wong in his 2001 "Sharp Sports Betting" shed some light on +EV teaser wagers.

Although outdated still a fine read imo.

This is for the punters who care about increasing their ROI (return on investment) and have a business like approach

to sports wagering. This discussion will not interest emotional, recent bias obsessed, prime time bettors.

Up to last year I have kept my +EV teaser plays to myself. My bankroll has increased every year for over a decade.

Since the industry moved their juice higher 2 years ago, it is now a moot point. The informed +EV teaser crowd is now

forced to share some of their gains with the greedy books. I saw it coming, as with anything a good thing gets exploited.

Anyways, I lifted the curtain on my approach last year and posted 750+2 team teaser plays hitting 61.2% which was

better than my long term rate (58.7%). In part 2 I will go into the math and show you how +EV will protect your betting bankroll.

Can I impart some wisdom on when to use teasers ?  It sure isn't in the beginning of the season when lines are likely to be a bit looser, compared to later in the year when lines are tighter and more data is available ( for the books).

Part 2.   "The Math"

In order for -110 a player needs to hit higher than 52.4%  (juice divided by juice + 100)

110/210=54.2%

Now for -120 ( the price books charge for 2 team 6 point teasers) you get

120/220=54.4%   and 125/225=55.5%  you can still find these prices for 6 and 6.5 teasers.

It should go without saying that anywhere that grades a WIN and TIE as a LOSS instead of NO ACTION is not an option.

Now, to the EV part.

If the win% of team A after the tease times the win% of team b after the tease is greater than the break even %,then bingo=+EV

For -120 you get: (team A %win) x (team B %win)>55

for 125 you get : (Awin% x Bwin%) > 56 before the play is +EV

Using the data base and SDQL procols,killersports and GimmeTheDog have greatly expanded the

usable candidates for me. I am very aggressive wagering wise and suppose less than 1% of the gamblers

would even consider this approach.Regression (sides and totals) of the teams' ats records is the glue that holds

this system together. It begins to play out starting in week 5.      Part 3 an example for your consideration.

Yes !  ALL insights are encouraged.This style needs a working relationship with SDQL protocols which is burdensome but doable.

As far as when these teasers are usable imo the time of the year is meaningless. I will give an example shortly.

Part 3:

2 team teaser -120 

HF and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Eagles

indicates that over the last 4 years the Eagles are (12-1) SU (92%)

as HOME DIVISIONAL FAVORITES

AD and DIV and season>=2021 and team=Giants and total>39

indicates that the Giants are (1-9) 10% or 90% the other way

as AWAY DIVISIONAL DOGS

so, we have (92%x90%)=83% for success. This compares to break even of 74%, a significant +EV

There are different opinions on what sample size is needed to be relevant,that is subjective, I have been leaning

to smaller sample sizes, last 3 or 4 years in many cases. There are many historical cappers who I respect who will not

even give the trend with that small of sample size any consideration. As I discuss with indigo, DBW and hoody who value

larger sizes, I would like to be early on developing trends but I am aware that these can regress, so NOTHING IS FOR SURE!

So in summary: After teasing Eagles and Commanders to -.5,you are now playing them to

just win the game with significant +EV.   Guarantee, hell no Hurts or Daniels could break an ankle on the first series.

Bet sizing is really for me the unproven and interesting variable and I welcome any insights in this regard!