🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]

Well there ya go.......

Browns 20 first downs  vs  Steelers only  9

Browns 408 net yards  vs  Steelers only 255

Browns flagged for 50 more yds in pens

Lucky Steelers gain net of +2 turnovers, both for TDs (unearned pts)

We all shall remember these key PERFORMANCE stats when assessing next week's matchups when Browns are at home to Titans and the outplayed and VERY LUCKY STEELERS travel to Vegas.....

Oh yes......and one other important point about how incredibly LUCKY the Steelers were to be outplayed badly and still win....All-star RB for Cleveland, Nick Chubb was carted off the field just one minute into the 2ndQ........that early in the game and he had already AMASSED 64 yds rushing on just 10 carries!!!  IN ONE QUARTER!!! 

Cleveland led 11 - 7 at the time he exited.   Obviously THAT hampered the Browns and helped the Steelers. But despite that loss of production the Browns still managed all those stats shown above against the bumbling Steeler D...

Remember, the opening pts of the game - just 10 seconds into the game - was a defensive TD after a DOUBLE-TIPPED fluky bounce ball for a pick 6

Raiders played EVEN with the Broncos in Denver, but got steamrolled by an elite angry BILLS team coming off a horrible performance.
Both those games were on the road but Sunday Night primetime they get the spotlight at home against the very lucky Steelers.

Steelers had the luxury of playing 2 consecutive HOME games. They got steamrolled by an elite team, the Niners....then we all witnessed their performance on Monday night - being badly outplayed but getting incredibly lucky.....

When they meet Sunday night in primetime, the Raiders will have their #2 WR back in the lineup!!

And like any decent QB, I fully expect Garroppolo to bounce back with a SOLID outing!

When my books put the lines up I will be all over duuhh Raaaayyyduuuhhhs for a *BEST BET

Lines are up now on Steelers @Raiders next SNF!

So I grabbed for WEEK 3 (Sept 24) 

LV Raiders +1 -115     *BEST BET

*Caveat:  nothing is a sure thing!  Beware: This might lose... Which is why I NEVER ask members to tail my bets.....but I give the Raiders about a 75% chance of an outright win....Review above posts and see if you agree.... BOL with your bets

seems reasonable      appreciate the heads up    im tailing u on this one

raiders -110 on ml    

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Lines are up now on Steelers @Raiders next SNF!

 

So I grabbed for WEEK 3 (Sept 24) 

LV Raiders +1 -115     *BEST BET

 

 

*Caveat:  nothing is a sure thing!  Beware: This might lose... Which is why I NEVER ask members to tail my bets.....but I give the Raiders about a 75% chance of an outright win....Review above posts and see if you agree. ... BOL with your bets

Tuesday mid afternoon now and this line has already flipped..... Las Vegas is now the fav at -1.5 and climbing at most books...... as I expected, which is why I bet into as soon as it was available after MNF 

I figure the spread will close around -2.5 on the homies in Vegas or possibly -3

Garoppolo is going to have a bounce back game in front of a home crowd facing a mediocre opp rated far less than those snarly BILLS were on their home turf....  and he will have *BOTH* his primary receivers back in the lineup now!  Meanwhile, Steelers likely to be WITHOUT starting Safety Fitzpatrick

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski confirmed Tuesday that 4-time pro-bowler Nick Chubb will undergo season-ending surgery on his left knee after the running back exited Monday's 26-22 loss to the Steelers with the injury at the start of the second quarter

Line on Browns has inched down to -3 .......although I am leaning toward them anyway

my books have already pushed them up to  2.5 

do i hear a 3 coming ??

More than likely it closes at -3 now

I like the powerful NINERS to win su on Thursday but I don't want to risk the high juice on an alt-line on that one because the GIANTS have a tendancy to get lucky....  Will wait for a possible in game opp there...

I want to pull for the unlucky BROWNS to win at home but that's just it....they are without allstar Nick Chubb, and that hurts.... Another game where I will be looking for an ingame opp hopefully on Cleveland if poss....

OK.  Technically true, but reports are, and it's my firm belief, that both productive receivers Adams and Meyers will suit up and be 100% healthy against the lucky Steelers, and I laid my bets on that probability.

Steelers could be without their star safety to face those receivers....

Does Seahawks recent road win in Detroit and the Panthers second loss suggest Seahawks at home will easily win and cover?

In addition to losing star RB Barkley for tonight's matchup on the road against the league-leading Niners, the NYG also will be without three other starters Thursday -- star left tackle Andrew Thomas (hamstring), left guard Ben Bredeson (concussion) and outside linebacker Azeez Ojulari (hamstring).  Of course they'll have backups in their, but they aren't the best and will be facing a formidable 49er front 7......and of course OL depth now becomes an issue....

This is an extended road trip for the Giants as they remained out west after playing the bottom-dwelling Cardinals on Sunday, where they had to scramble to comeback from being down 28 - 7 in the 3rd Q

The week before, the Giants were routed  AT HOME   0 - 40  by the K'boys....

Decent prop for TNF which I am considering is 2nd half to be highest scoring half for -105 as I feel that on a short week teams will be a little less crisp offensively but just as strong defensively......at least for a half..... I don't expect 49ers to have a huge lead by HT.....and if they are behind or tied, then the 2H will definitely be the higher scoring half...... If I don't play it pregame, it's worth watching for an ingame opp

Aiyuk is listed as Q for TNF, although I think he will play........still, even if he doesn't or if he's on a snap count, the 49ers lose nothing with J.Jennings or Kittle getting more targets!

Steelers completed 31 passes for 232 yds AT HOME and only scored 7 against SF, and lost by 23.

Rams completed 34 passes for 307 yds AT HOME and scored 23 against Sf, but still lost by 7

Giants completed only 17 for 110 yds playing AT HOME vs tough Dallas D, and lost 0 - 40!

Giants were losing 28 - 7 in mid 3rd Q on the road playing arguably one of the WORST teams in the NFL...

Tonight NYG are on the road against a very tough Niners D... much stronger than Cards.

Another way to look at this TNF matchup is this:

Niners, a top NFL team ranked either #1 or #2, defeated Steelers by 21 and Rams by 7 - BOTH ON THE ROAD! - and importantly, both teams rated significantly higher than the NYG.

Meanwhile, NYG - when they played an equally high rated Dallas team, lost that 0 - 40 ON HOMEFIELD!

Now, on a short week to prepare, Giants must travel to play a team rated as good as Dallas!

NINERS -555 su    *Best Bet

Niners, a top NFL team ranked either #1 or #2,

defeated Steelers by 21 and Rams by 7 -

BOTH ON THE ROAD!

- and importantly, both teams rated significantly higher than the NYG!

Meanwhile, NYG - when they played an equally high rated Dallas team,

lost that 0 - 40 ON HOMEFIELD -- and that was WITH Saquan Barkley and a fully intact offensive line!

Tonight: no Barkley, and the all important left side of the OL will be staffed by backups.

Now, on a short week to prepare, Giants must travel minus 3 offensive starters anda LB, to play a team rated at least as good as Dallas!

  Ok, I'm sold

SF  -570

@fubah2      good writeup to make the case

ya count me in too      niners -535

lets get em tonite ! 

Oh oh....

CB Thomas is OUT for Niners tonight!