Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: My 2025 NFL *Best Bets: 67 - 27 72% ...juice from all 27 losers is -5279 "First and eight and a half!" The controversial tush push lives to see another season in the NFL. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the controversial play will not be discussed during next week’s NFL owner’s meetings. Last month, Competition Committee co-chair Rich McKay said that no team had come forward with a proposal to alter or ban the play. “I don’t know that it’s the end of the debate,” McKay said, via Yahoo Sports’ Jori Epstein. “I think there’s still people who are concerned with the whole pushing element.”
"First and eight and a half"
**MY NOTE: the controversial play has an extremely high rate of success to achieve a first down on very short yardage. Meaning teams only have to achieve 9 yards (or just 8.5) on their first 3 plays and can virtually guarantee a 4th and one conversion when executing the "tush push."
Sure, it was genius at the time. But it is exactly akin to the leverage rule when DIRECTLY using another player to climb higher to attempt to block a kick/punt. Prior to the "tush push" it was still difficult for defenses to stop a 4th & 1 QB keeper but at least they had a reasonable chance......the "tush push" all but makes the play virtually unstoppable.....thus, unfair.
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: My 2025 NFL *Best Bets: 67 - 27 72% ...juice from all 27 losers is -5279 "First and eight and a half!" The controversial tush push lives to see another season in the NFL. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the controversial play will not be discussed during next week’s NFL owner’s meetings. Last month, Competition Committee co-chair Rich McKay said that no team had come forward with a proposal to alter or ban the play. “I don’t know that it’s the end of the debate,” McKay said, via Yahoo Sports’ Jori Epstein. “I think there’s still people who are concerned with the whole pushing element.”
"First and eight and a half"
**MY NOTE: the controversial play has an extremely high rate of success to achieve a first down on very short yardage. Meaning teams only have to achieve 9 yards (or just 8.5) on their first 3 plays and can virtually guarantee a 4th and one conversion when executing the "tush push."
Sure, it was genius at the time. But it is exactly akin to the leverage rule when DIRECTLY using another player to climb higher to attempt to block a kick/punt. Prior to the "tush push" it was still difficult for defenses to stop a 4th & 1 QB keeper but at least they had a reasonable chance......the "tush push" all but makes the play virtually unstoppable.....thus, unfair.
The San Francisco 49ers will face the Los Angeles Rams in the first-ever NFL regular season game in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, Sept. 10 at approximately 8:35 p.m. ET at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground.
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The San Francisco 49ers will face the Los Angeles Rams in the first-ever NFL regular season game in Melbourne, Australia on Thursday, Sept. 10 at approximately 8:35 p.m. ET at the iconic Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Starting off my 2022 NFL campaign with MNF. Highly rated Chiefs play the mediocre Raiders. I could waste a lot of time analyzing various rushing & passing stats, or get lost in the irrelevent minutiae of "trends," but for me the relevent analysis always comes down to just a few KEY points:- Key injuries?- Against whom did each team play so far?- What were the previous results? (and were they lucky/unlucky?)- Where were those results played? Home or road? For tonight, both teams will field a number of walking wounded. The Chiefs moreso on offense, but the Raiders moreso on defense. I'll consider this a wash, although Waller could be a HUGE loss for the Raiders if he gets hurt further on his shoulder, because TE Moreau is also out. Not sure how big a loss Brown is in the LB corps. But Chiefs are aware of these. From their schedules, we see both teams faced AZ and LAC. Raiders LOST BOTH, while the Chiefs WON BOTH.Raiders then split against mediocre teams, while Chiefs also split their last two games but one was a big win on the road at highly rated Tampa!Thus, Raiders played a slightly weaker schedule so far. Raiders are 1 - 3 with a mediocre -4 net pt differential against that collectively weaker group.They LOST both their road games, by 5 and 2 respectively, and BOTH against mediocre opponents.They are on the road tonight, but finally facing a VERY GOOD opponent! Chiefs are 3 - 1 with an EXCELLENT +33 net pt. differential in their 4 games, one of which was on the road at a very tough opponent. And finally, not only did Chiefs achieve a 3 - 1 record against slightly better opponents overall, amassing +33 net pt. differential from their wins, they did so while playing 3 road games and only benefitted from a single home game! They get the the benefit from a home game tonight! Of course anything can happen in football as we witnessed this weekend. Lucky breaks can flip everything. Raiders need net lucky breaks in their favor to win. But if the breaks are about even, KC wins by 5 to 14 pts here. Chiefs -350 @Bet365 *BEST BETChiefs -4 -170 @BetCRIS *PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. [url=https://airbrush.com/image-enhancer]airbrush photo enhancer[/url] Do it YOUR way, it's likely far less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.
Solid approach—honestly, that’s the kind of simplified framework that avoids overthinking these matchups. Focusing on context like injuries and opponent quality usually tells you more than surface stats ever will.
For this game, the gap between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders is pretty clear unless something unexpected (like key injuries or turnover luck) swings it. Prime-time at home also tends to favor the stronger side.
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@fubah2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Starting off my 2022 NFL campaign with MNF. Highly rated Chiefs play the mediocre Raiders. I could waste a lot of time analyzing various rushing & passing stats, or get lost in the irrelevent minutiae of "trends," but for me the relevent analysis always comes down to just a few KEY points:- Key injuries?- Against whom did each team play so far?- What were the previous results? (and were they lucky/unlucky?)- Where were those results played? Home or road? For tonight, both teams will field a number of walking wounded. The Chiefs moreso on offense, but the Raiders moreso on defense. I'll consider this a wash, although Waller could be a HUGE loss for the Raiders if he gets hurt further on his shoulder, because TE Moreau is also out. Not sure how big a loss Brown is in the LB corps. But Chiefs are aware of these. From their schedules, we see both teams faced AZ and LAC. Raiders LOST BOTH, while the Chiefs WON BOTH.Raiders then split against mediocre teams, while Chiefs also split their last two games but one was a big win on the road at highly rated Tampa!Thus, Raiders played a slightly weaker schedule so far. Raiders are 1 - 3 with a mediocre -4 net pt differential against that collectively weaker group.They LOST both their road games, by 5 and 2 respectively, and BOTH against mediocre opponents.They are on the road tonight, but finally facing a VERY GOOD opponent! Chiefs are 3 - 1 with an EXCELLENT +33 net pt. differential in their 4 games, one of which was on the road at a very tough opponent. And finally, not only did Chiefs achieve a 3 - 1 record against slightly better opponents overall, amassing +33 net pt. differential from their wins, they did so while playing 3 road games and only benefitted from a single home game! They get the the benefit from a home game tonight! Of course anything can happen in football as we witnessed this weekend. Lucky breaks can flip everything. Raiders need net lucky breaks in their favor to win. But if the breaks are about even, KC wins by 5 to 14 pts here. Chiefs -350 @Bet365 *BEST BETChiefs -4 -170 @BetCRIS *PS. I am not suggesting anyone bet the same as I do. [url=https://airbrush.com/image-enhancer]airbrush photo enhancer[/url] Do it YOUR way, it's likely far less risky, and I wish you BoL with your bets.
Solid approach—honestly, that’s the kind of simplified framework that avoids overthinking these matchups. Focusing on context like injuries and opponent quality usually tells you more than surface stats ever will.
For this game, the gap between the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders is pretty clear unless something unexpected (like key injuries or turnover luck) swings it. Prime-time at home also tends to favor the stronger side.
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My 2025 NFL *Best Bets: 67 - 27 72% ...juice from all 27 losers is -5279
“I think there’s still people who are concerned with the whole 
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