🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

If not mistaken you hit 60% on those first 5 props in the early game

4-1 on props. Yeah   Little luck always helps. 

80% !!!!  Even better! 

BIGTIME lucky break for niners late in the first half with a lucky tipped ball INT snuffing out a scoring drive for SF.......Another smaller break for the team I put $$$ on is the probable loss of POLLARD in the Dallas backfield.

Of course they still have some dude named Zeke....

Yep. Dallas night as well have let the guy try the FG. Wow. 

Then SF just letting click run.  SMH 

Third break of the game on a fumble at the SF 21. Dallas ball,

So each team got a LUCKY BREAK that resulted in 3 pts.

Lesson re-learned......(sigh)

Sunday morning I was debating back and forth on a number of bets. Leaning BILLS but undecided. I was not confident about it. Even did a small writeup (post #801) suggesting BENGALS have a great shot of covering as a dog. But even after learning BILLS would be down a starting defensive tackle I still went BILLS -245, and I think largely because I wanted them to win at home and thought Bengals OL was a big issue. But I specified I could NOT make this a *BEST BET because it was too close. In hindsight, that was an iffy bet and I should have backed away. But I foolishly bet on a pick in which I did not feel fully confident, violating my own handicapping rules!

But alas, I was also "considering" several decent prop bets. I posted my thoughts on them between posts #787 and #800, but ultimately I backed away from these and just stayed with my iffy BILLS -245 bet.

Have a look at what I missed out on:  

        (ww = would've won)

ww   Bengals +10.5-240 alt line ...looking for a middle! (post #787)
ww   Both teams to score 10? Yes -1100
wL*   OVER 4.5 TDs? Yes -260
ww   OVER 1.5 FGs? Yes -600
ww   Bengals o/u 27.5 pts? UN -500
ww   First quarter? Bengals +7.5-600
ww   First Q alt-total? UN 14.5 -400 (post #800)

My instincts suggested those were good prop bets, BUT I backed off.

My instincts suggested BILLS -245 was an iffy bet, BUT I took it anyway.

Posted NFL playoffs bets: (buying pts on many)

W  NINERS -470               *BEST BET
push  Bills -3 -600                *BEST BET
W  Bengals -425               *BEST BET
W  Bengals -1.5-400         *BEST BET
W  Niners -2.5-374           *BEST BET
W  NINERS -438               *BEST BET
W  NINERS -1.5 -363        *BEST BET
W  BILLS -819                     *BEST BET
W  NYG +3.5-137
W  BUFFALO -1.5-885      *BEST BET
W  Ravens +8.5...got my middle!!
W  Cowboys -137             *BEST BET
W  CHIEFS -2.5 -420       *BEST BET
W  CHIEFS -495                *BEST BET
W  Eagles -370                  *BEST BET

loss  BILLS -245                  *BEST BET
W  Niners -198                  *BEST BET

= 15 - 1 - 1

BoL on your playoff bets, fellas!

YTD   99 - 39 

(full diclosure:  includes many ML favs, although VERY profitable)

75 - 29 FAVS overall
              68 - 27 on Home Favs
                7 - 2 on Away Favs
 

24 - 10 DOGS overall
             18 - 7 on Home Dogs
               6 - 3 on Away Dogs
---------------------------------

14 - 5  National Spotlight evening games on Sat, Sun, Mon

These numbers  did not change with Sunday's results:

I am 49 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk! 

While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are always a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)

Meanwhile, for my bets where my chalk is -270 and higher (ML and/or Alt lines)

            ... my results so far are  40 - 3   

  Of those, a nice 32 - 3  on  designated  *BestBets 

Maybe these stats can be of some use to some cappers.

Regardless, I wish you BoL with your bets, fellas! 

FINAL STATS for buying pts down on a heavy fav of -7.5 and higher:

FINAL STATS for buying pts down on a heavy fav of -7.5 and higher:

I am 40 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher.

But specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I am 19 - 1

Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" *HOME* FAV's of -7.5 and up chances of covering at a significantly lower number:

bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)
bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0 - 1
bought pts down to -2.5 .. 10 - 0    (mean avg stake is -322)
bought pts down to -1.5 .... 3 - 0

= 17 - 1   when buying pts, despite heavy chalk!

*See notes in above posts

My NFL betting began Oct 10 :

Week 05:    1 - 1            -070
Week 06:    1 - 1            -010
Week 07:    4 - 3            -118
Week 08:    7 - 2     +473
Week 09:    9 - 1     +785
Week 10:    6 - 5            -614
Week 11:    7 - 3     +110
Week 12:    9 - 1     +700
Week 13:    9 - 1     +640
Week 14:    3 - 1     +115
Week 15:    3 - 3            -246
Week 16:  11 - 5     +193
Week 17:    3 - 4            -400
Week 18:  11 - 7            -301
Wildcard:  11 - 0   +1100
Divisional:  4 - 1    +155

YTD: 99 - 39   +75.36*units...

...*if a viewer had chosen to bet an average of 3 units to win on my posted picks. But those decisions are up to the viewer. My actual betting stakes vary constantly, and often considerably.  However, if we were to view my results by a level-field "common-denominator-for-comparison standard" - which is grading all at "one unit to win" regardless actual amounts I bet - then those "one unit" graded results would be 99 - 39 +25.12 units. Conference final bet: Eagles -145. This season's profits seriously exceed my previous personal best mark, although this time I spread them out over multiple books to avoid being flagged again.

Wishing everyone BoL with your bets! 

Weather forecasts for Conference finals according to rotogrinders:

SF @ PHIL -

"Mild temperatures and about a 10-15mph wind."

CIN @ KC -

"Frigid temps. Gametime temps should be in the 20s with a 10mph wind making it feel even colder."

According to Covers league stats:
Home teams are 158-121-2 su (or 56.2%)

Walking wounded

Mahomes remains on track to play.

As Adam Teicher of ESPN.com notes, the focus
with regard to Mahomes has gone from whether
he can play this weekend to how effective he'll
be with a painful high ankle sprain that he
sustained in last Saturday's win over the Jaguars.

IF Bengals PR can overload and come hard from Mahomes right side on passing downs forcing him left on a wonky ankle, it should be a long painful day for Patrick and the Chiefs.

Needless to say, even a moderate hit on that ankle and Chad Henne will have to guide the Chiefs thru the balance of the game.  He's ok, but no Mahomes. 

Of course, that could happen to Burrow too.....

Mahomes injury status

"I feel like I can still do a lot of things, but we'll see
as we get closer and closer," Mahomes said Thursday.

Bengals just dispatched a strong 8 - 1 home team which entered the game with a home pts differential of +105 pts and a healthy, mobile QB. Bengals won handily 27 - 10

Chiefs are also 8 - 1 at home, but with only a +53 home pts differential and a usually mobile QB playing with a high ankle sprain

One solid hit on Mahomes' right ankle and he's out. Henne played well in his brief appearance, yes, but if he were listed as the starter, Vegas would have the Bengals as favs by at least -3 pts.

Oh-ohh

Added to injury report

Kelce (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, Matt McMullen of the Chiefs' official site reports.

Status in question for Sunday

(SF) Mitchell (groin) is listed as questionable

for Sunday's NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia,

Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.

Walking wounded

McCaffrey emerged from this past Sunday's win versus the Cowboys with a badly bruised right calf.

According to Matt Barrows of The Athletic, McCaffrey was in uniform and holding a helmet a

s he left the locker room to hit the practice field Thursday,

but he didn't log any official activity for a second straight session!