All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

Wildcatmatt's Monday Night NBA

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1956
Posts: 56
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 3115
Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by male escort:

WCM,

Completely understand your logic on the Denver play... I am going to pass is Cleveland has impressed me on there west coast swing... Think you are right, they pack it in tonight, can't wait to get back home... They should get run out of the building.. 

At what ML price would you consider Sacramento tonight?



I don't know, I'm not the value play type.  I see they're getting about 13:1 odds at Matchbook, maybe I'll put a dollar on them.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #27
DOG alert: NSH/CLB OVER:  +140 waiting
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2004
Posts: 14055
Posted: #28
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #29
My tgt goal is 20 pts better juice than Diamond at a minimum.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 3115
Posted: #30
Trend tracking

Trend #1: take the lowest Under and the highest Over
YTD: 14-10 (8-4 on Unders, 6-6 on Overs)
Tonight: Cavs/Nuggets Over; Hornets/Nets Under

Trend #2: fade popular public picks (80% or above at sportsbook.com)
YTD: 17-7
Tonight: TBD

Trend #3: follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above
YTD: 11-4
Tonight: TBD

Trend #4: fade teams playing their first home game after 3 or more consecutive road games
YTD: 2-1
Tonight: Cleveland

Trend #5: take the 1st Quarter line for home teams with 2 or more days rest than their opponent
YTD: 3-1
Tonight: N/A
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2006
Posts: 1506
Posted: #31
I did a little research for what it's worth; using wagerline consensus picks. if you faded all the consensus picks this year in the nba (60% or more of the public on it) you would be 29-17. there have been seven games this season where the public % has been over 70%. if you would have faded those you would have gone 5-2.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #32
good stuff
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #33
good stuff
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #34
DOG wagers in for tonite (approx. 80% both books):
 
NSH/CLB OVER +130
NJD +146
PHO +198
CLE/DEN UNDER +114
SAC/UTAH UNDER +114
 
____
 
Unmatched (waiting):
FLA +125
 
 
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 3115
Posted: #35
No Vince Carter means the Hornets/Nets line is nowhere near what I was hoping for.  The Nets are intriguing as an unpopular home dog, but I'll stick with just the Nuggets tonight.  It's not my favorite play I've ever made, but we'll see how it works out.

I have one definite play in mind for tomorrow night and another one in mind for Wednesday night.

I remain uninterested in totals, but that Kings/Jazz Under looks appealing, doesn't it?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2006
Posts: 3115
Posted: #36
Good luck tonight, Leib.  I might start throwing some play money around on these NHL games myself to see how it works out.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #37
WITH THE JUICE that high, 50/50 is profitable
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #38
but you have to play all the 80%+ dogs basically ( unless there is an absolutely dominant team  which is rare in the leagues parity).
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2006
Posts: 1506
Posted: #39
at sportsbook, 80% of the public is on the hornets. at wagerline, it's 50/50.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2007
Posts: 219
Posted: #40
GL
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #41
added NSH ml as it jumped up to almost 80% past hr
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #42
ken: I will lay off if that is the case. This is an experiment in process, so who knows but I am trying to remain consistent and want both books around 80% to pull the trigger
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2006
Posts: 1506
Posted: #43
hornets have now fallen below the 80% mark.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #44
but they are both even wagerline...so no touch for me
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #45
the 80% dog of NSH & NSH/CLB looks good 1st period.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2006
Posts: 1506
Posted: #46
strange to see such a disparity in the %'s.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #47
NSH/CLB OVER
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #48
so...6 DOG wager around 80% NHL/NBA this evening. I will post results daily.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 315
Posted: #49
fading 80%, 70%, 60% even 100% is irrelevant

the reason why those may win is due to a bad situation, ie loss at home then laying too many on the road. If all you had to do was fade your consensus then we would all be rich and everyone would do it.

Now it may have worked for you this week, but if you truly believe in this method, I suggest you research it 10 years back to get a large enough sample size to justify your hypothesis.


 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 84
Posted: #50
if there was a way to research it, I am all ears
 
I am setting aside 20% of account for this trial. ONLY interested when I can get around 80% on each book AND positive juice avg +150
All Forums | NBA Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.