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Wildcatmatt's Monday Night NBA

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YTD: 6-6

Tonight:

Denver -6.5

I hate laying this many points, but I've had this game circled since the beginning of the season.  I also plan on taking the points with Orlando when the Cavs host the Magic on Wednesday.  These are two terrible spots for this Cleveland team.  I fully expect them to get run out of the building tonight.  I was ready to play this line at anywhere above 5.5 and I got my wish.


 
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Matt: I want to thank you for your idea of fading the 80%+ public favorites. I have been doing this on NBA, NHL, NCAAF & NFL for the past week and am up 50% on my account! This is due to the great juice on matchbook.com dogs. I do not wager on a 80%+ dog unless the juice is positive. Am approx. 55% accurate this way BUT with the avg. juice on the dogs at +150%, I only need to be around 50% accurate this way.
 
I do not only use sportbook for this, but compare against another online free service to make sure both books have the public at 80%+.
 
Thank you!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Leib:

Matt: I want to thank you for your idea of fading the 80%+ public favorites. I have been doing this on NBA, NHL, NCAAF & NFL for the past week and am up 50% on my account! This is due to the great juice on matchbook.com dogs. I do not wager on a 80%+ dog unless the juice is positive. Am approx. 55% accurate this way BUT with the avg. juice on the dogs at +150%, I only need to be around 50% accurate this way.
 
I do not only use sportbook for this, but compare against another online free service to make sure both books have the public at 80%+.
 
Thank you!


That's awesome, I'm glad that's working out for you man, I hope it keeps up.  Just try to keep playing smart with your juice and your money management.
 
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I do not take EVERY 80%. For ex: I won't/haven't wager against the Celtics or NE Pats. Too dominant. Other than them, just about every other team in the NBA/NHL is wagerable 80%+.
 
EX: yesterday 80%+ dogs were 7-2 in NFL/NBA/NHL. I took them all.
 
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caveat: Only consider 80%+ dogs on side/over-under. Not ML but WILL take the 80%+ dog ML if the side is 3 points or less (b/c that is negligible.
 
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I might like New Orleans tonight if they're getting at least 3 points.  I guess we're waiting on Vince Carter's status before we see a line in that one.
 
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i like it good luck wild cat
 
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ON SAME SIDE 2DAY
 
GL
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Leib:

I do not take EVERY 80%. For ex: I won't/haven't wager against the Celtics or NE Pats. Too dominant. Other than them, just about every other team in the NBA/NHL is wagerable 80%+.
 
EX: yesterday 80%+ dogs were 7-2 in NFL/NBA/NHL. I took them all.


Are you playing the NHL money line or puck line?
 
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NHL ML...puck line is too unreliable.
 
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Leib, i've been playing all 80% dogs in the nba and a few in the nfl. do you wait right before the game starts to check the %. i've noticed in the nba a couple of times the % will fall under 80 five to ten minutes prior to tip and that point i kind of wrestle with making it a play or not.
 
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ken: what I do is not always wait right beofre, if it is close, I compare sportsbook with wagerline.com and if wagerline is near 80%, I will then wager. Sometimes sportsbook is 80%+ BUT wagerline is NOT, then I lay off. I personally need to see both sites around 80% ish, but not exact.
 
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even tho it is early, I will review the diff books for 80% and if a few have the same dog around 80% ish, I will place a wager out of the $ on matchbook. This will get me usually at least 25 pts juice over other books and sometimes I get lucky early by doing this instead of waiting. Sometimes I I am wrong and am in a wager when the line turns against me later
 
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EX: The 80% dogs THIS EARLY on a few books that I have already entered out of the money wagers (not accepted yet) are:
 
NSH +160
NJD +150
NYI +150
PHO +202
CLE/DEN UNDER +120
SAC/UTAH UNDER +120
 
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Posted: #19

WCM,

Completely understand your logic on the Denver play... I am going to pass is Cleveland has impressed me on there west coast swing... Think you are right, they pack it in tonight, can't wait to get back home... They should get run out of the building.. 

At what ML price would you consider Sacramento tonight?

 
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thanks leib, i also look at wagerline along with sportsbook.
 
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I have painfully come to the conclusion (like futures trading failures), that I AM COMPLETELY REPRESENTITVE OF THE PUBLIC (which mostly loses). Thus, if I can remain almost mechanical, and take my "gut" out of it, then I can be succesful fading Joe Q. Public who loses. Again, 40-50% winners on 80%+ dogs WITH THE HIGHEST JUICE, is the only way I can see making consistent $.
 
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good point. are you playing the spread or the money line?
 
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Posted: #23
depends. If spread is like 3+, I will only play that if the juice is positive. If the spread is 3 or under (as a generalization), I will play the ML b/c better juice and 3 pts NBA/NFL is close enough to ML if juice is right.
 
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE JUICE!
 
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Posted: #24
got the SAC/UTAH UNDER at +111 (80%+ dog...21 pts better juice than at Diamond))
 
 
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also just got filled on the CLE/DEN UNDER (dog) at +114
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