wildcatmatt - are you a fade the public guy or do you bet NBA fundamentally?
I like to think I'm a mixture of both in NBA and NFL, because those are the two sports I pay most attention to. I would never make a play just because I'm "fading" the public, I put thought into all of them based on what I've seen, heard, read and considered.
I think NCAAFB and MLB I'm a purely fade-the-public guy because I pay less attention. NHL and NCAABB I'm a blind guesser.
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Quote Originally Posted by sctrojan03:
wildcatmatt - are you a fade the public guy or do you bet NBA fundamentally?
I like to think I'm a mixture of both in NBA and NFL, because those are the two sports I pay most attention to. I would never make a play just because I'm "fading" the public, I put thought into all of them based on what I've seen, heard, read and considered.
I think NCAAFB and MLB I'm a purely fade-the-public guy because I pay less attention. NHL and NCAABB I'm a blind guesser.
Matt: I enjoy this daily thread. What does this mean and how to measure it on sportsbook:
follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above
That means, check sportsbook to see if the general public is on a side
at 70% or above. Then compare the opening line to the closing line.
Typically, if the public is heavy on one side or total, the line is
going to move in coordinance with that money under the old adage that
Vegas wants even money on either side. For instance, the other night
New Orleans opened as a 2.5 point favorite at Portland. Because the
public was betting so heavily on the Hornets, Vegas adjusted the line
to 3 points by game time.
If you see that line movement headed the other way however, then it
should tip you off that something is up. What that something is
exactly, is up for debate, and I've heard a lot of different theories
on it that I won't expound on right now.
By the way, I don't trust sportsbook for their info on the line movement itself, it's usually shaky at best.
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Quote Originally Posted by Leib:
Matt: I enjoy this daily thread. What does this mean and how to measure it on sportsbook:
follow reverse line movement when public is on other side at 70% or above
That means, check sportsbook to see if the general public is on a side
at 70% or above. Then compare the opening line to the closing line.
Typically, if the public is heavy on one side or total, the line is
going to move in coordinance with that money under the old adage that
Vegas wants even money on either side. For instance, the other night
New Orleans opened as a 2.5 point favorite at Portland. Because the
public was betting so heavily on the Hornets, Vegas adjusted the line
to 3 points by game time.
If you see that line movement headed the other way however, then it
should tip you off that something is up. What that something is
exactly, is up for debate, and I've heard a lot of different theories
on it that I won't expound on right now.
By the way, I don't trust sportsbook for their info on the line movement itself, it's usually shaky at best.
I usually check sportsbook.com then wagerline.com. If all else fails, I ask my buddy who is obsessed with the NBA but isn't a gambler which side he would take. If he's 100% confident in a side, then I know in my heart it's a sucker bet.
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Quote Originally Posted by Buckeyes_Fan:
best way to know what side the public is on??
I usually check sportsbook.com then wagerline.com. If all else fails, I ask my buddy who is obsessed with the NBA but isn't a gambler which side he would take. If he's 100% confident in a side, then I know in my heart it's a sucker bet.
matt, the only totals i've been playing are trend #1. funny, as i type this, denver and phoenix are both now above 80%. also, i live in new orleans and i think the hornets will be ready tonight.
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matt, the only totals i've been playing are trend #1. funny, as i type this, denver and phoenix are both now above 80%. also, i live in new orleans and i think the hornets will be ready tonight.
I think the Hornets will be ready too, I like that team a lot. I'm just trying to play smart this year, and betting against the Spurs is hardly ever smart.
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I think the Hornets will be ready too, I like that team a lot. I'm just trying to play smart this year, and betting against the Spurs is hardly ever smart.
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on saturday.
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