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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    *** Rising Stars Challenge Predictions ***

    1234 Next Last»
    Froggy80
    Mksniper
    SuckmyRick
    ILoveCover88
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    1234 Next Last»
     
    Froggy80
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 10:32 AM ET #1

    So, I'm putting my simulation sheet to work for this matchup. It's actually pretty awesome that we can take a group of random players and match them up against another group of random players to predict an outcome. cool

     

    There were some obvious tweaks I need to make for the simulation to work such as mpg needed to be evened out for all players to 20 minutes, and then the defense ratings had to be adjusted for their disregard for defense in these match-ups.

    In order to figure out how loose I had to be with defense, I took the results from the last two years and calibrated the defensive "loosening factor" to achieve the resulting game total, not the score. It showed that for both years, the players loosened their defense by around 52%. I applied the same loosening factor for this year's matchup... and the results are in.

     

    All scores are Team WORLD - Team USA

     

    2018 Prediction Score: 145 - 133 vs Actual Score: 155 - 124  --  Game Total Prediction: 278.15 vs Actual Game Total: 279

    2019 Prediction Score: 141 - 168 vs Actual Score: 144 - 161  --  Game Total Prediction: 309.02 vs Actual Game Total: 305

     

    For 2020:

     

    2020 Prediction Score: 152 - 155  --  Game Total Prediction: 306.90

     

    -- Take a leap of faith
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    So, I'm putting my simulation sheet to work for this matchup. It's actually pretty awesome that we can take a group of random players and match them up against another group of random players to predict an outcome. cool

     

    There were some obvious tweaks I need to make for the simulation to work such as mpg needed to be evened out for all players to 20 minutes, and then the defense ratings had to be adjusted for their disregard for defense in these match-ups.

    In order to figure out how loose I had to be with defense, I took the results from the last two years and calibrated the defensive "loosening factor" to achieve the resulting game total, not the score. It showed that for both years, the players loosened their defense by around 52%. I applied the same loosening factor for this year's matchup... and the results are in.

     

    All scores are Team WORLD - Team USA

     

    2018 Prediction Score: 145 - 133 vs Actual Score: 155 - 124  --  Game Total Prediction: 278.15 vs Actual Game Total: 279

    2019 Prediction Score: 141 - 168 vs Actual Score: 144 - 161  --  Game Total Prediction: 309.02 vs Actual Game Total: 305

     

    For 2020:

     

    2020 Prediction Score: 152 - 155  --  Game Total Prediction: 306.90

     

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 10:34 AM ET #2

    20 minutes because: 5 players on the court at all times, 40 minutes for the match, 10 players... (5 * 40)/10

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    20 minutes because: 5 players on the court at all times, 40 minutes for the match, 10 players... (5 * 40)/10

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 10:44 AM ET #3

    Rising Stars Previous Years Simulation Screenshot: https://ibb.co/9pc26Fk

    Rising Stars Current Year Simulation Screenshot: https://ibb.co/LknQg9x

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    Rising Stars Previous Years Simulation Screenshot: https://ibb.co/9pc26Fk

    Rising Stars Current Year Simulation Screenshot: https://ibb.co/LknQg9x

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 10:47 AM ET #4

    The screenshot for the current year was captured during a transition from one application to another. https://ibb.co/9Zs7FmK

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    The screenshot for the current year was captured during a transition from one application to another. https://ibb.co/9Zs7FmK

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 10:51 AM ET #5

    I'm going to do something similar for the All-Star game, but the format this year is a little tricky. I'm sure the bookies are having a helluva time figuring this one out as well... probably just crossing their fingers like everyone else lol

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    I'm going to do something similar for the All-Star game, but the format this year is a little tricky. I'm sure the bookies are having a helluva time figuring this one out as well... probably just crossing their fingers like everyone else lol

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 11:01 AM ET #6

    Miscalculated some things. Wait for update.

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    Miscalculated some things. Wait for update.

     
    Mksniper
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 2:09 PM ET #7

    Waiting on the update brother.

    Are you running these in NBA2K or something?

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    Waiting on the update brother.

    Are you running these in NBA2K or something?

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 2:35 PM ET #8

    I run these on a simulation spread sheet that I build based on up-to-date player stats.

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    I run these on a simulation spread sheet that I build based on up-to-date player stats.

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 2:46 PM ET #9

    Ok. Here is the update.

    2018 was a fluke game. Team USA was the favorite to win. (5dimes had them at -3.5 so it checks out, just had to be sure)

    The defense looseness isn't as crazy as I had thought. The percentage works out to about 10% looseness.

    With that being said, I have the following projections for 2020.

     

    Team World Projected Score: 144.11

    Team USA Projected Score: 158.76

     

    Game Total: 302.87

     

    After checking scores for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 -- 2016 was the only year above the current O/U at 311 pts. I'm buying 1.5 pts for a wager of: USA -5.5 & Game Total Under 306.5 Parlay

     

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    Ok. Here is the update.

    2018 was a fluke game. Team USA was the favorite to win. (5dimes had them at -3.5 so it checks out, just had to be sure)

    The defense looseness isn't as crazy as I had thought. The percentage works out to about 10% looseness.

    With that being said, I have the following projections for 2020.

     

    Team World Projected Score: 144.11

    Team USA Projected Score: 158.76

     

    Game Total: 302.87

     

    After checking scores for 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 -- 2016 was the only year above the current O/U at 311 pts. I'm buying 1.5 pts for a wager of: USA -5.5 & Game Total Under 306.5 Parlay

     

     
    SuckmyRick
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 2:48 PM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by Froggy80:

    I run these on a simulation spread sheet that I build based on up-to-date player stats.

     

    I am very interested in your final results for the NBA all star game.   Please share your findings.  I like what you have shared so far.  Ty

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    Quote Originally Posted by Froggy80:

    I run these on a simulation spread sheet that I build based on up-to-date player stats.

     

    I am very interested in your final results for the NBA all star game.   Please share your findings.  I like what you have shared so far.  Ty

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 3:08 PM ET #11

    For the All-Star game, I have a projected score of

     

    Team Lebron: 165.96

    Team Giannis: 171.36

     

    Game Total of 337.31

     

    However, here's the kicker. The 4th quarter, as a tribute to Kobe is a race to 24-pt added on to the high score. So, let's play this one out.

     

    Team Lebron first 3 quarters: 165.96 divided by 4 quarters is 41.49 per quarter. The first 3 quarters would equate to 124.47.

    Team Giannis first 3 quarters: 171.36 divided by 3 quarters is 42.84 per quarter. The first 3 quarters would equate to 128.52.

     

    If you add 24 to the final score of 128.52, you get 152.52. The match maximum score is 305.04.

     

    Now, let's take a look at some historical figures.

     

    In 2017, in the 1st 3 quarters...

    Team Lebron scored: 139

    Team Giannis scored: 144 

    Current format maximum score: 168

    The game ended in by a 10 pt difference (182-192). By current format that game would have ended as (168-156). Game Total: 324

     

    In 2018, in the 1st 3 quarters...

    Team Lebron scored: 109

    Team Giannis scored: 112 

    Current format maximum score: 136

    The game ended in by a 3 pt difference (148-145). By current format that game would have ended as (136-133). Game Total: 269

     

    In 2019, in the 1st 3 quarters...

    Team Lebron scored: 132

    Team Giannis scored: 131 

    Current format maximum score: 156

    The game ended in by a 12 pt difference (178-164). By current format that game would have ended as (156-144). Game Total: 300

     

    By these calculations, I am predicting a Team Giannis victory by a 4 pt margin, final score: 153 - 149

     

    Final wager: Team Giannis +5 & Under 305.5

    -- Take a leap of faith
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    For the All-Star game, I have a projected score of

     

    Team Lebron: 165.96

    Team Giannis: 171.36

     

    Game Total of 337.31

     

    However, here's the kicker. The 4th quarter, as a tribute to Kobe is a race to 24-pt added on to the high score. So, let's play this one out.

     

    Team Lebron first 3 quarters: 165.96 divided by 4 quarters is 41.49 per quarter. The first 3 quarters would equate to 124.47.

    Team Giannis first 3 quarters: 171.36 divided by 3 quarters is 42.84 per quarter. The first 3 quarters would equate to 128.52.

     

    If you add 24 to the final score of 128.52, you get 152.52. The match maximum score is 305.04.

     

    Now, let's take a look at some historical figures.

     

    In 2017, in the 1st 3 quarters...

    Team Lebron scored: 139

    Team Giannis scored: 144 

    Current format maximum score: 168

    The game ended in by a 10 pt difference (182-192). By current format that game would have ended as (168-156). Game Total: 324

     

    In 2018, in the 1st 3 quarters...

    Team Lebron scored: 109

    Team Giannis scored: 112 

    Current format maximum score: 136

    The game ended in by a 3 pt difference (148-145). By current format that game would have ended as (136-133). Game Total: 269

     

    In 2019, in the 1st 3 quarters...

    Team Lebron scored: 132

    Team Giannis scored: 131 

    Current format maximum score: 156

    The game ended in by a 12 pt difference (178-164). By current format that game would have ended as (156-144). Game Total: 300

     

    By these calculations, I am predicting a Team Giannis victory by a 4 pt margin, final score: 153 - 149

     

    Final wager: Team Giannis +5 & Under 305.5

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 3:10 PM ET #12

    Correction for historical example, the final score would have been (168-158)

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    Correction for historical example, the final score would have been (168-158)

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 3:14 PM ET #13

    I'm analytical, but I'm also a degen so I parlayed this entire thing... MWHAHAHA

    This is what I ended up doing (definitely not recommeded, but it's fun... so why not LOL):

     

    4-team Parlay

    USA All Stars -5½

    World All Stars/USA All Stars Under 308½ -150

    All Star Giannis +5 -110

    All Star LeBron/All Star Giannis Under 305½

    -- Take a leap of faith
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    I'm analytical, but I'm also a degen so I parlayed this entire thing... MWHAHAHA

    This is what I ended up doing (definitely not recommeded, but it's fun... so why not LOL):

     

    4-team Parlay

    USA All Stars -5½

    World All Stars/USA All Stars Under 308½ -150

    All Star Giannis +5 -110

    All Star LeBron/All Star Giannis Under 305½

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 3:16 PM ET #14

    The most confident out of the 4 is definitely USA All Stars -5½

    -- Take a leap of faith
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    The most confident out of the 4 is definitely USA All Stars -5½

     
    SuckmyRick
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 3:27 PM ET #15

    Thank you for all your hard work.

    I am on board.  Your presentation and statistics seem solid.  Rather get my money behind something data driven, then a hunch.  Good Luck to all.

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    Thank you for all your hard work.

    I am on board.  Your presentation and statistics seem solid.  Rather get my money behind something data driven, then a hunch.  Good Luck to all.

     
    SuckmyRick
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 4:26 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by Froggy80:

    The most confident out of the 4 is definitely USA All Stars -5½

     

    The over is now at 309

    Public is driving it up.  Any thoughts

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    Quote Originally Posted by Froggy80:

    The most confident out of the 4 is definitely USA All Stars -5½

     

    The over is now at 309

    Public is driving it up.  Any thoughts

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 4:59 PM ET #17

    People obvious don't understand the new format.

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    People obvious don't understand the new format.

     
    Mksniper
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:03 PM ET #18

    Gonna wait to bet the under as I see this total rising IMO

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    Gonna wait to bet the under as I see this total rising IMO

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:05 PM ET #19

    Smells like smart money is waiting for the snipe bet

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    Smells like smart money is waiting for the snipe bet

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:14 PM ET #20

    Ah this is in regards to the World vs USA game... this has nothing to do with the new format. average of 155 per team... It's certainly possible, but the question is, is it probable?

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    Ah this is in regards to the World vs USA game... this has nothing to do with the new format. average of 155 per team... It's certainly possible, but the question is, is it probable?

     
    ILoveCover88
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:15 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by Froggy80:

    People obvious don't understand the new format.

     

    what is the new format? i thought the new format is only for the main all star game.

     

    isn't today's game same format as last year and the year before?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Froggy80:

    People obvious don't understand the new format.

     

    what is the new format? i thought the new format is only for the main all star game.

     

    isn't today's game same format as last year and the year before?

     
    ILoveCover88
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:17 PM ET #22

    does anyone know when ayton was injured for the world....and also when zion was named replacement for another injured player in the usa team? 

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    does anyone know when ayton was injured for the world....and also when zion was named replacement for another injured player in the usa team? 

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:22 PM ET #23

    If you guys take the u310, and the total is less than 262 at the end of the 3rd quarter, then it's basically a lock (unless OT). Every point higher than 262 puts us in the danger zone. 286 or higher is an automatic loss.

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    If you guys take the u310, and the total is less than 262 at the end of the 3rd quarter, then it's basically a lock (unless OT). Every point higher than 262 puts us in the danger zone. 286 or higher is an automatic loss.

     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:26 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by ILoveCover88:

    does anyone know when ayton was injured for the world....and also when zion was named replacement for another injured player in the usa team?

    Ayton's is sitting out due to soreness, not necessarily an injury. Zion replacing Wendell Carter Jr.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by ILoveCover88:

    does anyone know when ayton was injured for the world....and also when zion was named replacement for another injured player in the usa team?

    Ayton's is sitting out due to soreness, not necessarily an injury. Zion replacing Wendell Carter Jr.

     

     
     
    Froggy80
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    Posted: Feb. 14, 2020 - 5:28 PM ET #25

    Damn, I'm even confusing myself... forget post #23, mixing games again.

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    Damn, I'm even confusing myself... forget post #23, mixing games again.

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