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pig, melo, metta, coach, baby and the gang wednesday NBA/ MLB

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Posted: #301
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

That's what scares me and makes me think you still need to look at this season's ERA, BAA, etc.  If you get a pitcher who's been great for many years and now sucks (use Roy Halladay as an example) isn't his FIP going to misrepresent his future success?


 thats why i just analyze season stats and last 3 starts for pitchers....to me current form is very important. i try not to over analyze pitching. a pitcher sucks and has bad numbers, check the other one, if he does too, take over first 5 and if the pens suck take it full game too...
 
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Posted: #302
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

That's what scares me and makes me think you still need to look at this season's ERA, BAA, etc.  If you get a pitcher who's been great for many years and now sucks (use Roy Halladay as an example) isn't his FIP going to misrepresent his future success?



Not really because his FIP will be trending up.
 
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Posted: #303

Quote Originally Posted by Coach19:



Not really because his FIP will be trending up.

Well, then you have to have and compare different years' FIP, rather than just looking at the current one, right?  And if someone has a 10 year history of strong success, is 4 or 5 bad starts this season going to show a significant enough trend to show the true situation?

Sorry to tax you on this, but you seem to understand it well.  And I'm trying to verify whether or not I do...

 
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Posted: #304
Quote Originally Posted by Coach19:

For what it's worth...

Reds o8 FG
Cards ML
Cards o10 FG live
O's o8.5 FG
O's TT o4
Nats 1st 5
Stros 1st 5
Heat o92.5 2H
Bruins +1.5 live
GS o103 1H
Snakes +165 FG
Ducks ML
Spurs -8 2H
 
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Posted: #305
omfg that hurt 
 
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Posted: #306

Quote Originally Posted by pigskinpicker:


 thats why i just analyze season stats and last 3 starts for pitchers....to me current form is very important. i try not to over analyze pitching. a pitcher sucks and has bad numbers, check the other one, if he does too, take over first 5 and if the pens suck take it full game too...

I'm still trying to figure out how your computer works in all that mud...

 
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Posted: #307
yep strong reminder of why I stepped away from nba figured it would happen though. money drainer imo to much of a guessing game
fg over
2h over

I will be on the lookout for mlb plays from the crew as well as contributing.
take it easy fellas

 
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Posted: #308
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

I'm still trying to figure out how your computer works in all that mud...


just kinda slow, but it works, piggy style...
 
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Posted: #309
guys to quickly access FIP numbers breakdownsheets.com puts it on his daily reports.
 
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Posted: #310
Quote Originally Posted by Gambit:

omfg that hurt 

  gambit...you had to be doing well today after the miami game went over...... SO....play enough on the spurs game to have some action, but when you lose...you dont give a lot back....SIMPLE STRATEGY... dont tell me you gave back your miami overs on this game??
 
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Posted: #311
cmon snakes

 
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Posted: #312
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

Well, then you have to have and compare different years' FIP, rather than just looking at the current one, right?  And if someone has a 10 year history of strong success, is 4 or 5 bad starts this season going to show a significant enough trend to show the true situation?

Sorry to tax you on this, but you seem to understand it well.  And I'm trying to verify whether or not I do...


The FIP is a cumulative career statistic and not year by year.  That being said, the FIP will trend up or down but doesn't reset much like the traditional ERA.  Also, the ERA is a very simple equation of earned runs allowed divided by innings pitched whereas the FIP really doesn't focus on runs allowed (except for the HR component) but includes more indicative components such as walks, HBPs, and Ks.
 
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Posted: #313
And of course its opposite with some pitchers.  Assuming my numbers are correct - AJ Burnett   2011 FIP = 4.81, 2012 FIP = 3.57, and 2013 FIP = 2.22.   Sure looks like he's improving with just this stat...
 
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Posted: #314
Goldy with another bomb
 
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Posted: #315
Quote Originally Posted by Coach19:

Goldy with another bomb


 
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Posted: #316
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

And of course its opposite with some pitchers.  Assuming my numbers are correct - AJ Burnett   2011 FIP = 4.81, 2012 FIP = 3.57, and 2013 FIP = 2.22.   Sure looks like he's improving with just this stat...


And that's a dramatic improvement based upon the equation.
 
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Posted: #317
coach/baby ra/pig/blue/melo

any strong leans tomorrow mlb?
 
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Posted: #318
Baby, FIP on the fangraphs.com predicts current season performance, they update the number daily games after games the pitcher plays. 
 
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Posted: #319
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

And of course its opposite with some pitchers.  Assuming my numbers are correct - AJ Burnett   2011 FIP = 4.81, 2012 FIP = 3.57, and 2013 FIP = 2.22.   Sure looks like he's improving with just this stat...

 a lot of burnetts problem was being in new york... some pitchers just dont perform well in that environment... he got better just leaving the bronx..
 
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Posted: #320

Quote Originally Posted by Coach19:


The FIP is a cumulative career statistic and not year by year.  That being said, the FIP will trend up or down but doesn't reset much like the traditional ERA.  Also, the ERA is a very simple equation of earned runs allowed divided by innings pitched whereas the FIP really doesn't focus on runs allowed (except for the HR component) but includes more indicative components such as walks, HBPs, and Ks.

I get the cumulative part;  that's why I'm saying its not going to change much after a crappy month or two.  So I believe it could be very deceiving for a pitcher who's success has changed dramatically between this year and the past.

Sounds like we're on the same page.....

 
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Posted: #321

Quote Originally Posted by MettaWorldWar:

guys to quickly access FIP numbers breakdownsheets.com puts it on his daily reports.

Thanks  

 
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Posted: #322
Quote Originally Posted by knight703:

coach/baby ra/pig/blue/melo

any strong leans tomorrow mlb?

 not yet, will post baseball tomorrow afternoon after my bridge game....do have some over leans, such as in first 5 of atlanta game..
 
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Posted: #323
Quote Originally Posted by knight703:

coach/baby ra/pig/blue/melo

any strong leans tomorrow mlb?


knight...after going 17-4 these past two days with 2 plays pending, I may take a rest from posting as I'm due for a major correction and don't want to take anyone down with me.
 
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Posted: #324
Quote Originally Posted by Baby_BA:

And of course its opposite with some pitchers.  Assuming my numbers are correct - AJ Burnett   2011 FIP = 4.81, 2012 FIP = 3.57, and 2013 FIP = 2.22.   Sure looks like he's improving with just this stat...

2013 FIP = 2.22 that is up to dated number, let's say he played 6 game, so far he gives up 2.22 runs per game without considering defense error, ballpark factor. And of course along with more games he will play this season, his FIP number will go up but for now his performance is good. 
 
 
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Posted: #325

Quote Originally Posted by Melo7:

Baby, FIP on the fangraphs.com predicts current season performance, they update the number daily games after games the pitcher plays. 

Melo, I think fangraphs.com is a pay site, so I can't look for this myself right now...  Is it giving you some kind of analysis or prediction based on FIP, or just the FIP number itself?   Thanks.....

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