For some reason I seriously think the Bookies have got the Game totals right for Wednesday. It really is a flip of the coin where the total lands.
I am interested in the Indiana and Clippers but the market is off. I would say that any total set around 206 would be where i would take Over.
If it is set at 212 or 213, I would view it differently. Indiana come is on a Back2Back but a short trip home while Clippers are coming off 2 solid wins.
Indiana will do better in the scoring but we will have to wait another 3-5 Games before that happens as Murphy and Dunleavy make their slow returns.
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For some reason I seriously think the Bookies have got the Game totals right for Wednesday. It really is a flip of the coin where the total lands.
I am interested in the Indiana and Clippers but the market is off. I would say that any total set around 206 would be where i would take Over.
If it is set at 212 or 213, I would view it differently. Indiana come is on a Back2Back but a short trip home while Clippers are coming off 2 solid wins.
Indiana will do better in the scoring but we will have to wait another 3-5 Games before that happens as Murphy and Dunleavy make their slow returns.
Houston are taking 90+ shots per game in the past 5 games. When you take this many shots, you will get to 100 points regularly and in Houston's past 10 Games, they have managed to get to 100 points 9 times out of 10.
They are shooting fairly well but at home they average 106 ppg at 48.5%.
Dallas are coming off a shock loss to the Warriors. Is this a surprise? There are signs they are not playing consistently since they managed to escape with an OT win over the Spurs and a 2 point win against Sacramento in the 2 earlier Games.
Houston will be looking to shoot the lights out as usual and will try and play this game at a high tempo early and try and get the Dallas team in foul trouble.
They key to this game and total points is the plays in the paint. The Houston and Dallas franchises have been having a picnic in this area and score heavily close to the basket.
Houston have decent perimeter players and take 24 shots a game at 35%. Dallas with Terry, Nowitski and Kidd take a decent look themselves.
I rate this game as having a 60% chance of going over 201 provided Dallas do not play stutter offense. It really should be a good offensive battle and I can see a high percentage of shots being converted.
Play: Over 201
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11/25/2009 HOUSTON v DALLAS Total: 201
Houston are taking 90+ shots per game in the past 5 games. When you take this many shots, you will get to 100 points regularly and in Houston's past 10 Games, they have managed to get to 100 points 9 times out of 10.
They are shooting fairly well but at home they average 106 ppg at 48.5%.
Dallas are coming off a shock loss to the Warriors. Is this a surprise? There are signs they are not playing consistently since they managed to escape with an OT win over the Spurs and a 2 point win against Sacramento in the 2 earlier Games.
Houston will be looking to shoot the lights out as usual and will try and play this game at a high tempo early and try and get the Dallas team in foul trouble.
They key to this game and total points is the plays in the paint. The Houston and Dallas franchises have been having a picnic in this area and score heavily close to the basket.
Houston have decent perimeter players and take 24 shots a game at 35%. Dallas with Terry, Nowitski and Kidd take a decent look themselves.
I rate this game as having a 60% chance of going over 201 provided Dallas do not play stutter offense. It really should be a good offensive battle and I can see a high percentage of shots being converted.
Really tight call this one. This will easily go Over 194 provided Larry Brown keeps his glasses off and sees that running an offense in the NBA actually could help get you wins.
The Bobcats are still terrible. Gerald Wallace is terrible and overated. The point guards are terrible. The offense is terrible.
So who is at fault? Larry Brown is at fault. He has pigeon holed the Bobcats for the past 2-3 years as strictly a defensive unit. He needs to look at himself or resign from this caper!
The Bobcats have been running an offense in the past 2 Games. They managed to score 104 points on 41/82 shooting against a similar styled team to Toronto in Indiana. Indi scored 88 in that game but shot horrendously all nite till the 4th Qtr where some easy lay ups helped their percentage.
In the game against Milwaukee, Bobcats scored 88 on 30/59 shooting but they did go to the Free Throws but managed only 26/43.
Toronto are simply a high octane offense but strangely do not always take as many shots as their opponent - they just shoot a high percentage. They are a poor defensive unit however and concede 111 ppg away.
Play: Over 194
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11/25/2009 CHARLOTTE v TORONTO Total: 194
Really tight call this one. This will easily go Over 194 provided Larry Brown keeps his glasses off and sees that running an offense in the NBA actually could help get you wins.
The Bobcats are still terrible. Gerald Wallace is terrible and overated. The point guards are terrible. The offense is terrible.
So who is at fault? Larry Brown is at fault. He has pigeon holed the Bobcats for the past 2-3 years as strictly a defensive unit. He needs to look at himself or resign from this caper!
The Bobcats have been running an offense in the past 2 Games. They managed to score 104 points on 41/82 shooting against a similar styled team to Toronto in Indiana. Indi scored 88 in that game but shot horrendously all nite till the 4th Qtr where some easy lay ups helped their percentage.
In the game against Milwaukee, Bobcats scored 88 on 30/59 shooting but they did go to the Free Throws but managed only 26/43.
Toronto are simply a high octane offense but strangely do not always take as many shots as their opponent - they just shoot a high percentage. They are a poor defensive unit however and concede 111 ppg away.
NJ played Denver so a back2back against another quality team will not help them. Only way this stays inside 14 points is if Portland eases off.
Me personally I wouldn't touch this game. I expect Portland can score around 95 without much problem and since they don't have a game the next nite could have alot of fun towards the end with NJ enjoying some late baskets themselves.
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NJ played Denver so a back2back against another quality team will not help them. Only way this stays inside 14 points is if Portland eases off.
Me personally I wouldn't touch this game. I expect Portland can score around 95 without much problem and since they don't have a game the next nite could have alot of fun towards the end with NJ enjoying some late baskets themselves.
11/25/2009 BOSTON v PHILADELPHIA Total: 188.5 and rising
Philly coming off a long trip from a back2back to Boston - I doubt they will be scoring anywhere close to 85 points. Boston will be fired up and looking for a very defensive approach after a couple of losses at the impregnable Boston Garden.
This Game is simply all about how tired the 76ers may be - 4th Game in 6 nites. You just don't score against the Celtics when you are tired. The threat is how many points the Celts may put up. They are not exactly shooting well themselves.
No Play yet as waiting on the market to settle. I would want 191+ here as expect Celts to win 105-85
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11/25/2009 BOSTON v PHILADELPHIA Total: 188.5 and rising
Philly coming off a long trip from a back2back to Boston - I doubt they will be scoring anywhere close to 85 points. Boston will be fired up and looking for a very defensive approach after a couple of losses at the impregnable Boston Garden.
This Game is simply all about how tired the 76ers may be - 4th Game in 6 nites. You just don't score against the Celtics when you are tired. The threat is how many points the Celts may put up. They are not exactly shooting well themselves.
No Play yet as waiting on the market to settle. I would want 191+ here as expect Celts to win 105-85
SLYSPY 700 what is your record so far this year this is the first time i saw your site very good what ive seen so far ive been looking for a site like yours keep up thegood work thanks 88
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SLYSPY 700 what is your record so far this year this is the first time i saw your site very good what ive seen so far ive been looking for a site like yours keep up thegood work thanks 88
11/25/2009 BOSTON v PHILADELPHIA Total: 188.5 and rising
Philly coming off a long trip from a back2back to Boston - I doubt they will be scoring anywhere close to 85 points. Boston will be fired up and looking for a very defensive approach after a couple of losses at the impregnable Boston Garden.
This Game is simply all about how tired the 76ers may be - 4th Game in 6 nites. You just don't score against the Celtics when you are tired. The threat is how many points the Celts may put up. They are not exactly shooting well themselves.
No Play yet as waiting on the market to settle. I would want 191+ here as expect Celts to win 105-85
Sorry but are you looking at the right info? Long trip, they played Clev on 11/21 then played Wash on 11/24 before those two games they had two home games. Flight to Clev 2hrs and train to Wash 2hrs. Now a 2hr plane ride to Boston. Tired?
Next you capped the game around 190 yet you are willing to go under 191 rather that take over 188 . Either way it does not leave you with much room for error.
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by slyspy700:
11/25/2009 BOSTON v PHILADELPHIA Total: 188.5 and rising
Philly coming off a long trip from a back2back to Boston - I doubt they will be scoring anywhere close to 85 points. Boston will be fired up and looking for a very defensive approach after a couple of losses at the impregnable Boston Garden.
This Game is simply all about how tired the 76ers may be - 4th Game in 6 nites. You just don't score against the Celtics when you are tired. The threat is how many points the Celts may put up. They are not exactly shooting well themselves.
No Play yet as waiting on the market to settle. I would want 191+ here as expect Celts to win 105-85
Sorry but are you looking at the right info? Long trip, they played Clev on 11/21 then played Wash on 11/24 before those two games they had two home games. Flight to Clev 2hrs and train to Wash 2hrs. Now a 2hr plane ride to Boston. Tired?
Next you capped the game around 190 yet you are willing to go under 191 rather that take over 188 . Either way it does not leave you with much room for error.
SLYSPY 700 what is your record so far this year this is the first time i saw your site very good what ive seen so far ive been looking for a site like yours keep up thegood work thanks 88
I actually thought it was a 4 hr flight from Washington to Boston but realised there is Washington, Seattle and Washington DC.
So Philly won't be as tired from an overnite flight but still can't see them get to 90 if Boston plays a high level D.
Market on the Total has stabilised at 187 but was 188.5 overnite. I would lean on the Under 187 and will play that.
Play: Boston/Philly: Under 187
I would think Indiana and Clippers game could be Over 201.5 (started at 202). The only thing is how well Clippers will shoot. They have been doing OK and Indiana does give teams good looks at the basket but it is a 50/50 proposition so No Play by me.
San Antonio vs GS Warriors is interesting. Set at 213.5 and GSW won playing with 6 players against Dallas. Anthony Morrow hit 6/8 beyond the arc. I would expect he will be shut down in this area by the Spurs but who knows - the Spurs are playing casual D at times this year and looking to score more than defend on games. I would lean more for Under 213.5.
Good Luck All
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Quote Originally Posted by ohio-88:
SLYSPY 700 what is your record so far this year this is the first time i saw your site very good what ive seen so far ive been looking for a site like yours keep up thegood work thanks 88
I actually thought it was a 4 hr flight from Washington to Boston but realised there is Washington, Seattle and Washington DC.
So Philly won't be as tired from an overnite flight but still can't see them get to 90 if Boston plays a high level D.
Market on the Total has stabilised at 187 but was 188.5 overnite. I would lean on the Under 187 and will play that.
Play: Boston/Philly: Under 187
I would think Indiana and Clippers game could be Over 201.5 (started at 202). The only thing is how well Clippers will shoot. They have been doing OK and Indiana does give teams good looks at the basket but it is a 50/50 proposition so No Play by me.
San Antonio vs GS Warriors is interesting. Set at 213.5 and GSW won playing with 6 players against Dallas. Anthony Morrow hit 6/8 beyond the arc. I would expect he will be shut down in this area by the Spurs but who knows - the Spurs are playing casual D at times this year and looking to score more than defend on games. I would lean more for Under 213.5.
SLYSPY 700 what is your record so far this year this is the first time i saw your site very good what ive seen so far ive been looking for a site like yours keep up thegood work thanks 88
started following him 5 days ago, only 1 loss on NBA over and under. the sac-dal game, the rest are winning plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by ohio-88:
SLYSPY 700 what is your record so far this year this is the first time i saw your site very good what ive seen so far ive been looking for a site like yours keep up thegood work thanks 88
started following him 5 days ago, only 1 loss on NBA over and under. the sac-dal game, the rest are winning plays.
Well 2-1 today and really stuffed up my travel plans on that Boston/Philly Game as the flight to Boston was 1 hour (from Washington DC) when i thought it was 5 hours (Washington Seattle). Live and learn but I won't make that mistake again.
Record: 19-11
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LoL.
Well 2-1 today and really stuffed up my travel plans on that Boston/Philly Game as the flight to Boston was 1 hour (from Washington DC) when i thought it was 5 hours (Washington Seattle). Live and learn but I won't make that mistake again.
The Bulls have been more offensive minded lately and that has mainly been due to Luol Deng's and Derrick Rose's recent good form and scoring. Deng however averages only 13.2 ppg against Utah at 41.4% shooting. Rose averages 24.5 (over 2 Games) but is carrying an anle injury sustained during pre-season.
It has to be pointed out that their increased scoring in the past 3 Games of 98, 93 and 93 have also resulted in losses with opponents scoring 122, 112 and 108.
I would imagine the Bulls need to look at their Defense which is the key to them winning Games. It has to be pointed out that the 3 teams they played, Denver, LA Lakers and Portland do have efficient scoring capabilities and benches that can score when the starters are resting.
It is imperative the Bulls get back to their set Defensive structure but also not play the style the opponents like Lakers and Denver like which is fast tempo - they will get burnt.
The Utah team has lost Games at home they would have penciled as wins at the start of the season. They also escaped with an OT win over Detroit. Utah has struggled mainly due to injuries to key players at different times this season but are a solid all round outfit and defensively sound.
Opponents have averaged 100 ppg at Utah this season however.
I expect this to turn around as the season goes on as Utah is better than conceding this many points at home. The Bulls are not the type of team to score 100 points in Utah unless this Game were to break out into a run and gun fest. I don't think it will be the case.
Utah on the back of the loss to OKC will be trying to prevent the Bulls causing another boil over. They were criticized for their lack of defense against OKC in the 2nd and 3rd Qrs where OKC and Kevin Durant simply ran over them. I expect this will be a highlighted point prior to the game.
The Bulls will resort to a high energy defense game in this one given it is away. The scoring will come so long as the Defense is at a premium level. Bulls like to strangle their opponents offense and I expect they have the "cattle" to do it.
Interestingly, the key players for Utah, Carlos Boozer averages 14.7 ppg against Chicago, Kirilenko averages 11.9 and Derron Williams is at 16.2. These are well below the average these players have in their careers.
This has a 90-85 scoreline written all over it and either team could win this.
Although my play is on Under 195, I am interested in the 2nd Half Total. If the scorelines are close at the Half, I cannot see anywhere close to 95 points scored in the 2nd. Utah are a complete fade in 2nd halves as they seemingly just shut up shop and run a very slow and drained tempo. The Bulls I expect will be heavy on the D themselves.
Play: Under 195
** Also look for 2nd Half Play for Under if the total is set at 94+
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11/26/2009 UTAH v CHICAGO Total: 195
The Bulls have been more offensive minded lately and that has mainly been due to Luol Deng's and Derrick Rose's recent good form and scoring. Deng however averages only 13.2 ppg against Utah at 41.4% shooting. Rose averages 24.5 (over 2 Games) but is carrying an anle injury sustained during pre-season.
It has to be pointed out that their increased scoring in the past 3 Games of 98, 93 and 93 have also resulted in losses with opponents scoring 122, 112 and 108.
I would imagine the Bulls need to look at their Defense which is the key to them winning Games. It has to be pointed out that the 3 teams they played, Denver, LA Lakers and Portland do have efficient scoring capabilities and benches that can score when the starters are resting.
It is imperative the Bulls get back to their set Defensive structure but also not play the style the opponents like Lakers and Denver like which is fast tempo - they will get burnt.
The Utah team has lost Games at home they would have penciled as wins at the start of the season. They also escaped with an OT win over Detroit. Utah has struggled mainly due to injuries to key players at different times this season but are a solid all round outfit and defensively sound.
Opponents have averaged 100 ppg at Utah this season however.
I expect this to turn around as the season goes on as Utah is better than conceding this many points at home. The Bulls are not the type of team to score 100 points in Utah unless this Game were to break out into a run and gun fest. I don't think it will be the case.
Utah on the back of the loss to OKC will be trying to prevent the Bulls causing another boil over. They were criticized for their lack of defense against OKC in the 2nd and 3rd Qrs where OKC and Kevin Durant simply ran over them. I expect this will be a highlighted point prior to the game.
The Bulls will resort to a high energy defense game in this one given it is away. The scoring will come so long as the Defense is at a premium level. Bulls like to strangle their opponents offense and I expect they have the "cattle" to do it.
Interestingly, the key players for Utah, Carlos Boozer averages 14.7 ppg against Chicago, Kirilenko averages 11.9 and Derron Williams is at 16.2. These are well below the average these players have in their careers.
This has a 90-85 scoreline written all over it and either team could win this.
Although my play is on Under 195, I am interested in the 2nd Half Total. If the scorelines are close at the Half, I cannot see anywhere close to 95 points scored in the 2nd. Utah are a complete fade in 2nd halves as they seemingly just shut up shop and run a very slow and drained tempo. The Bulls I expect will be heavy on the D themselves.
Play: Under 195
** Also look for 2nd Half Play for Under if the total is set at 94+
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Thanx for the write-up and bol
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