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Over/Under: How I am winning

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Covers Rehab
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Posts: 980
Posted: #476
12/31/2009
San Antonio v Miami
Total: 195

Miami on a back to back and go to the AT and T Center to face a Spurs team that is posting big numbers on the scoring end. Mainly the big scores are against teams with limited capacity to defend the paint or Tim Duncan. In most cases, it's a pick your poison proposition as the ball can go to Duncan or out to the shooters.

The Heat have no one who can defend Duncan. The ball will be sent to him via ball rotations and apart from the regular 3 point threats, the Spurs will know that the Heat are not an easy beat and loom as an Adam and Eve on a Raft and wreck 'em upset special.

The Heat beat the Spurs on here last time out. The past 9 of 10 contests have not even threatened to exceed 195 points. With Miami on a back to back, I expect to see the Spurs try and blow this game early but the pace should settle and provided the Heat hang in and defend, has the potential to be turn into a defensive struggle.


Play: Under 195
 
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Posted: #477
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE



GOOD LUCK AND HOPE 2010 IS PROSPEROUS
 
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Posted: #478
Im with u on both! 
 
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Posted: #479
Quote Originally Posted by jkp714:

Im with u on both! 


No probs - Happy New Year jkp714
 
Prospect
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Posted: #480
Slyspy, I just noticed your thread.  How have you been making out?  I play quite a few totals and I believe you are bang on for the S.A. game.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #481
eh, if only Kidd made that buzzer... :/
 
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Posted: #482
Hope everyone had a great NY

Record is at 35-24.

I'm not too fussed but going back to 1 Unit Plays for a month with 3 plays a day.

The trends are all over the place too so we will have to review how teams are going to go with the remaining 60% of the Season before the Playoffs.

I expect it becomes integral that teams and coaches look at where they are at and focus on winning games at home for chances to make the Playoffs. That's where it's at - Home Wins.

 
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Posted: #483
01/01/2010
Minnesota v Orlando
Total: 204

All I'm going to say is provided the NY festivities haven't gone to their system, I expect nothing short of 220 points here. The Wolves can score and with good big man presence and a compliment of decent shooters to keep them in the contest.

The problem for the Wolves is that when they play teams with good shooters, they have a huge problem and concede well beyond 105 points. The Magic will keep the scoreboard ticking like a clock and this game will bottle out to junk time wih minimal D from either end.

Both teams play again on the 2nd so expect the Magic to rest their stars and slack off on D especially in the 4th Qtr.


Play: Over 204
 
Prospect
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Posted: #484
Keep playin and rollin brother!  And whoever is worried about this man posting and this thread rolling................BEAT IT AND FIND A NEW THREAD!
 
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Posted: #485
01/02/2010
Washington v San Antonio
Total: 201

In the past 10 contests, the total has exceeded 201 only twice. The Spurs tend to defend the Wizards as good as anyone and although they have a smaller line up, I can see the Wizards struggle for points.

It's a close call but with a game the next day, I expect the Spurs to slow the tempo down and control this game.

Arenas may be suspended and he is questionable. It won't matter much anyway. I expect the Spurs to defend the perimeter well and look for some cheap fast break points.


Play: Under 201
 
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Posted: #486
01/02/2010
Cjicago v Orlando
Total: 193

This is such a 50/50 call but the key here is that I think that there will be some nuetralisation inside the paint battle between Naoh and Howard.

Sure Howard is better than Noah 9.5 times out of 10 but with the Bulls gaining some momentum with 2 wins in a row and the Magic coming off a game the previous nite, I can see a slow tempo displayed by both.

The Magic didn't shoot well for much of the Game against the Wolves and it won't bode well here if the Bulls elect to play tight D.


Play: Under 193
 
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Posted: #487
01/02/2010
New Orleans v Houston
Total: 194

This is the replica of the previous match up which Houston won 108 - 100. The total was also set at 194.

The only difference is it's at the Hornet's nest and I don't think Houston will dictate the terms as well as they did when they last played. What this means is that the Houston run and gun will be nullified by the Hornets and I expect Paul to control the tempo well.

The problem for unders betting on Houston games is that gnat - Aaron Brroks. All I see him do is mindlessly run at defenders and get fast break lay ups or jack up 3 pointers.

I'm sure the Hornet's key to victory is to swat this guy and make sure he doesn't get into the lanes and drive to the bucket.

If this happens, it is going to be a bad call here because what will eventuate is a high tempo contest and alot of scoring.


Play: Under 194
 
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Posted: #488
Strange - The Bulls game was set at 194 and the Hornets at 194.5.

I actually went 2-1-0.
 
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Posted: #489
nice job
 
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Posted: #490

Nice plays

 

 
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Posted: #491

Quote Originally Posted by BigSteve191:

Keep playin and rollin brother!  And whoever is worried about this man posting and this thread rolling................BEAT IT AND FIND A NEW THREAD!
Sounds like you mean me BigNobody191. Nine posts in two years and you decide to defend this thread? Why? Because I made a comment about the length of this thread? 

It's not like I said anything about how slypsy occasionaly will post that he played a better line on a game after it's over, rather than the one he posted before the game and actually won his bet adding a win to his total. In post #489 he says he wen 2-1 today. His posted plays went 1-1 and a push.

This isnt the first time that I've seen discrepencies in his posted plays and what he states his record is. 

This is why a daily thread is better. It's easier to keep track of a persons record to see how they are performing.

 
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Posted: #492
Quote Originally Posted by Vegasville:

 It's not like I said anything about how slypsy occasionaly will post that he played a better line on a game after it's over, rather than the one he posted before the game and actually won his bet adding a win to his total. In post #489 he says he wen 2-1 today. His posted plays went 1-1 and a push.

This isnt the first time that I've seen discrepencies in his posted plays and what he states his record is.


Yeah, it feels pretty much FedUp, I feel like a cosmic idiot losing money on such a unbeliavable way (fuck you Anderson!) where both New Orleans/Houston and Chi/Orlando managed to score 15+ in last couple of mins...

..only to see the next morning that tipster I followed actually bet on another picks than he actually posted.

This is just so not fair, admit your losses dude!
 
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Posted: #493
Yeah whatever. The thing about the Totals is that my asshole Bookies dont release them necessarily at the same time to when the Covers total is released.

Anyway - take it from me, I havent even taken the tips of 2-1-0 from yesterday into account as that. It is still 1-1-1

Spurs v Toronto - Under 201.5


 
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Posted: #494
Tnx for posting this pick 5 mins before the start of the game and 0:07 after all serious books closed wagers on the event

Why even posting picks if you dont wanna do it so people could follow you all the time and cut some previoosly gained losses? 

:(
 
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Posted: #495
TVex thanks for being an asshole and doing your own research.....Man you gotta lot of nerve for being critical of cappers with your 5th post.......Hope it hits and you couldn't get it in   
 
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Posted: #496
WTF does it make any difference do I have 5 or 2005 posts?

Since i started following (with REAL money) Sly's picks, I'm in - mainly because of his extremly unpredictable time of posting picks.

I think it is OK to post it at least half an hour bf the start of the game.

I'd like a chance to get my money back, this way it will be hard.

So I'll stop, GL to all of cocky bzs like yoy
 
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Posted: #497
OK OK OK

I think its fair enough to request earlier picks. The problem for me is that since Im in Australia, I dont even get the Totals on games till in the morning as some games I prefer have the odds closed.

Anyhow, I was at the Hopman Cup Tennis so couldnt exactly do much with the NBA.

I will see what i can do for tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #498
01/04/2010
Utah v New Orleans
Total: 196

These 2 teams can seriously resort to some low scorers mainly on account of bad shooting or poor positioning when taking shots - particularly Utah who can be clamped down seriously.

The Hornets have dialed up the D when needed in some recent contests but that is normally the difference in them winning or not. They are not a 100+ point team and don't really threaten the scoreboard as if they have a restraining order on it.

This is a contest between 2 higher credentialed teams and this will be enough to suggest both teams know they are beatable by each other.

I expect better ball protection by Utah who can be prone to some horrible play for long periods. They turned the ball over 25 times against a depleted Denver team and lost as an 8 point favorite in that game.


Play: Under 196
 
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Posted: #499
01/04/2010
Miami v Atlanta
Total: 195.5

The Hawks must be wondering what went wrong against both Cleveland and New York after holding big leads and subsequently losing.

I can tell you what went wrong! Their lack of perimeter D is what did them and the occasional brilliance by the opponent when attacking the paint.

The fact that the Hawks need to get back on track will twist and thwart this game into a high defensive game where shooting shots at every 10 clicks will be holstered for the night.

Miami have also dropped a couple and similarly will be of the same mind set here. I don't think either team are running their offensives too well when teams play D.

The formula will be that Miami D + Atlanta D = Under 195.5.


Play: Under 195.5
 
 
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Posted: #500

Quote Originally Posted by slyspy700:

01/04/2010
Miami v Atlanta
Total: 195.5

The Hawks must be wondering what went wrong against both Cleveland and New York after holding big leads and subsequently losing.

I can tell you what went wrong! Their lack of perimeter D is what did them and the occasional brilliance by the opponent when attacking the paint.

The fact that the Hawks need to get back on track will twist and thwart this game into a high defensive game where shooting shots at every 10 clicks will be holstered for the night.

Miami have also dropped a couple and similarly will be of the same mind set here. I don't think either team are running their offensives too well when teams play D.

The formula will be that Miami D + Atlanta D = Under 195.5.


Play: Under 195.5

Hey slyspy, what do you think of the OKC @ Chicago Bulls game this evening over or under 194.5 ?

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