Just wanted to see if anyone out there in coversland that uses a formula/theory they have created for NBA totals that hits at a decent rate? I am always intrigued by numbers and statistics for the NBA and the amount of information you can get just off the nba.com website is insane.
The game has changed no doubt, in the mid 2000's teams were averaging around 95 possesions per game and took around 25 three point attempts. Now, its the norm to jack up 35-40 three pointers and get around 101 posessions per game. I used to love unders but too many times there would be last minute fouls, OT and absolute insane circus shots that would ruin your bet. So then I thought about creating a formula based on quick teams and over bets because its always fun watching the game/score click over at a rapid rate compared to watching a game which you have an under bet on and you are there calculating and getting annoyed when the refs call some bogus fouls and a team gets into the bonus early on in the quarter.
So just putting it out there, if anyone is willing to share and chat about certain formulas they use/create to give themselves a potential edge in the totals market.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Just wanted to see if anyone out there in coversland that uses a formula/theory they have created for NBA totals that hits at a decent rate? I am always intrigued by numbers and statistics for the NBA and the amount of information you can get just off the nba.com website is insane.
The game has changed no doubt, in the mid 2000's teams were averaging around 95 possesions per game and took around 25 three point attempts. Now, its the norm to jack up 35-40 three pointers and get around 101 posessions per game. I used to love unders but too many times there would be last minute fouls, OT and absolute insane circus shots that would ruin your bet. So then I thought about creating a formula based on quick teams and over bets because its always fun watching the game/score click over at a rapid rate compared to watching a game which you have an under bet on and you are there calculating and getting annoyed when the refs call some bogus fouls and a team gets into the bonus early on in the quarter.
So just putting it out there, if anyone is willing to share and chat about certain formulas they use/create to give themselves a potential edge in the totals market.
Best angle ive found is when teams combined for 45pts or less in the 1st Q, then i like to take the ingame over before the 2nd Q starts...more often than not, both teams magically start hitting 3s with ease, refs call early fouls on both teams to encourage more scoring by getting both teams into the penalty early in the Q, and the overall pace improves as both teams run and gun more.
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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Best angle ive found is when teams combined for 45pts or less in the 1st Q, then i like to take the ingame over before the 2nd Q starts...more often than not, both teams magically start hitting 3s with ease, refs call early fouls on both teams to encourage more scoring by getting both teams into the penalty early in the Q, and the overall pace improves as both teams run and gun more.
The new rule after offensive rebound with 14 seconds to shoot also increase the tempo of the games. I don't think there is formula right now. Coaches and players still adjust to these rules. What about us bettors against sportsbooks. NBA become unpredictable. No defense, high tempo games, tones of three points shots (including tones of bad shots), easy fouls and whatever you want. When you see guy like Brook Lopez to knock down four straight triples 1.5 meters behind the line you understand something is wrong in this league Oz I think we need to observe at least one or two years and after that I think we can find some good trends (queries) that will work in long term. More than 50% of my working systems till last season are broken now. When the game change dramatically as it's right now It's hard to figure out new systems. At least some of my old situational plays seems to work but they have nothing in common with that insane 3pt shooting. I will be extremely lucky if somehow hit 53-4 % this season (I'm under .500 right now) based on my systems. I hope I will figure out which ones still work in the new era.
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The new rule after offensive rebound with 14 seconds to shoot also increase the tempo of the games. I don't think there is formula right now. Coaches and players still adjust to these rules. What about us bettors against sportsbooks. NBA become unpredictable. No defense, high tempo games, tones of three points shots (including tones of bad shots), easy fouls and whatever you want. When you see guy like Brook Lopez to knock down four straight triples 1.5 meters behind the line you understand something is wrong in this league Oz I think we need to observe at least one or two years and after that I think we can find some good trends (queries) that will work in long term. More than 50% of my working systems till last season are broken now. When the game change dramatically as it's right now It's hard to figure out new systems. At least some of my old situational plays seems to work but they have nothing in common with that insane 3pt shooting. I will be extremely lucky if somehow hit 53-4 % this season (I'm under .500 right now) based on my systems. I hope I will figure out which ones still work in the new era.
Here one rule to always follow: Never bet an under pregame...the new offensive shot clock reset and terrible whistle happy new refs are not favorable to ever cap an under
Betting the under on first halves pre-game has worked for me on the early games on Sundays.
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Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
Here one rule to always follow: Never bet an under pregame...the new offensive shot clock reset and terrible whistle happy new refs are not favorable to ever cap an under
Betting the under on first halves pre-game has worked for me on the early games on Sundays.
Aussie, I don't have a formula per say but I look at a few things and if they all line up I bet the O/U. First teams trend sin the last 5 overall and last 5 playing on the particular site. If team has 4 out of 5 Under or Over Overall or 4 out of 5 at home and playing at home that check marks 1 of the qualifications. I add the ou margin for both teams for the L4 and divide it by 2.
(tA(ou margin,N=4)+otA(ou margin,N=4))/2 and A and team and o:team and date=today
If I have a positive number then it's leaning towards the over, if it's negative it's leaning towards the under. Now I have queries that do this for me so i don't have to run them and add them up manually. now, that checks the 2nd qualification. Then I look at the pace for each team. This is the best indicator. If both teams fall in the bottom 10 for pace then the pace is exponentially slower, same thing if both fall in the top 10 for high pace, the pace is not just averages but it's way above average. If one is on top of the list and 1 in the below then the pace is non predictable. Now, bookmakers know this and jack up the totals to 230s to 240s for the 2 high paced teams because as we know it, teams can't come up and play as fast as 1st half for the 2nd half so game does slow down the 2nd half 9 out of 10 times so You bet the Over for the 1st Half because the pace is still higher and you have a better chance of getting the over 1st H instead of Full game. Same thing with Under, I would bet the 1st half Under instead of full game because of garbage time and OT situations, 2 slow teams bet the 1st half Under. You can also compare which teams have higher scoring 2nd half than 1st half. If you have both teams score lower 2nd half then 1st half then its' also safe to bet the FG under but if you have 1 scoring higher and 1 scoring lower then it's not a good indication which way it will go for FG
A(S2+o:S2-P3-P4-o:P3-o:P4)@team and season=2018 will show you which teams score higher 1st half compared to 2nd half.
hope that gave you a few ideas to work with. cheers
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Aussie, I don't have a formula per say but I look at a few things and if they all line up I bet the O/U. First teams trend sin the last 5 overall and last 5 playing on the particular site. If team has 4 out of 5 Under or Over Overall or 4 out of 5 at home and playing at home that check marks 1 of the qualifications. I add the ou margin for both teams for the L4 and divide it by 2.
(tA(ou margin,N=4)+otA(ou margin,N=4))/2 and A and team and o:team and date=today
If I have a positive number then it's leaning towards the over, if it's negative it's leaning towards the under. Now I have queries that do this for me so i don't have to run them and add them up manually. now, that checks the 2nd qualification. Then I look at the pace for each team. This is the best indicator. If both teams fall in the bottom 10 for pace then the pace is exponentially slower, same thing if both fall in the top 10 for high pace, the pace is not just averages but it's way above average. If one is on top of the list and 1 in the below then the pace is non predictable. Now, bookmakers know this and jack up the totals to 230s to 240s for the 2 high paced teams because as we know it, teams can't come up and play as fast as 1st half for the 2nd half so game does slow down the 2nd half 9 out of 10 times so You bet the Over for the 1st Half because the pace is still higher and you have a better chance of getting the over 1st H instead of Full game. Same thing with Under, I would bet the 1st half Under instead of full game because of garbage time and OT situations, 2 slow teams bet the 1st half Under. You can also compare which teams have higher scoring 2nd half than 1st half. If you have both teams score lower 2nd half then 1st half then its' also safe to bet the FG under but if you have 1 scoring higher and 1 scoring lower then it's not a good indication which way it will go for FG
A(S2+o:S2-P3-P4-o:P3-o:P4)@team and season=2018 will show you which teams score higher 1st half compared to 2nd half.
hope that gave you a few ideas to work with. cheers
When two OVER teams meet, the game goes over about 85% of the time. For two UNDER teams, it's close to 89%. However, I don't count OTs. So two teams tied at the end of regulation and its UNDER let's say, I count the game as UNDER for my stats. I also watch 1H vesus 2H as pointed out. It's not perfect, but it does help for capping. For today, I like the UNDER for CLE-BOS and the OVER for NO-MIA. I'm not committed yet, still looking at the games. Just some ideas for you to ponder.
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When two OVER teams meet, the game goes over about 85% of the time. For two UNDER teams, it's close to 89%. However, I don't count OTs. So two teams tied at the end of regulation and its UNDER let's say, I count the game as UNDER for my stats. I also watch 1H vesus 2H as pointed out. It's not perfect, but it does help for capping. For today, I like the UNDER for CLE-BOS and the OVER for NO-MIA. I'm not committed yet, still looking at the games. Just some ideas for you to ponder.
The new rule after offensive rebound with 14 seconds to shoot also increase the tempo of the games. I don't think there is formula right now. Coaches and players still adjust to these rules. What about us bettors against sportsbooks. NBA become unpredictable. No defense, high tempo games, tones of three points shots (including tones of bad shots), easy fouls and whatever you want. When you see guy like Brook Lopez to knock down four straight triples 1.5 meters behind the line you understand something is wrong in this league Oz I think we need to observe at least one or two years and after that I think we can find some good trends (queries) that will work in long term. More than 50% of my working systems till last season are broken now. When the game change dramatically as it's right now It's hard to figure out new systems. At least some of my old situational plays seems to work but they have nothing in common with that insane 3pt shooting. I will be extremely lucky if somehow hit 53-4 % this season (I'm under .500 right now) based on my systems. I hope I will figure out which ones still work in the new era.
There were analyses (before the rule enacts) showing that the shot clock change affects mostly end-game plays. The overall effect is not significant since there were only 6% of plays where teams took more than 14 seconds to shoot after an offensive rebound. It is actually the more strict calls of defensive contacts that significantly changes how players are allowed to play defense.
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Quote Originally Posted by FunkFreaker:
The new rule after offensive rebound with 14 seconds to shoot also increase the tempo of the games. I don't think there is formula right now. Coaches and players still adjust to these rules. What about us bettors against sportsbooks. NBA become unpredictable. No defense, high tempo games, tones of three points shots (including tones of bad shots), easy fouls and whatever you want. When you see guy like Brook Lopez to knock down four straight triples 1.5 meters behind the line you understand something is wrong in this league Oz I think we need to observe at least one or two years and after that I think we can find some good trends (queries) that will work in long term. More than 50% of my working systems till last season are broken now. When the game change dramatically as it's right now It's hard to figure out new systems. At least some of my old situational plays seems to work but they have nothing in common with that insane 3pt shooting. I will be extremely lucky if somehow hit 53-4 % this season (I'm under .500 right now) based on my systems. I hope I will figure out which ones still work in the new era.
There were analyses (before the rule enacts) showing that the shot clock change affects mostly end-game plays. The overall effect is not significant since there were only 6% of plays where teams took more than 14 seconds to shoot after an offensive rebound. It is actually the more strict calls of defensive contacts that significantly changes how players are allowed to play defense.
Aussie, I don't have a formula per say but I look at a few things and if they all line up I bet the O/U. First teams trend sin the last 5 overall and last 5 playing on the particular site. If team has 4 out of 5 Under or Over Overall or 4 out of 5 at home and playing at home that check marks 1 of the qualifications. I add the ou margin for both teams for the L4 and divide it by 2.(tA(ou margin,N=4)+otA(ou margin,N=4))/2 and A and team and o:team and date=today If I have a positive number then it's leaning towards the over, if it's negative it's leaning towards the under. Now I have queries that do this for me so i don't have to run them and add them up manually. now, that checks the 2nd qualification. Then I look at the pace for each team. This is the best indicator. If both teams fall in the bottom 10 for pace then the pace is exponentially slower, same thing if both fall in the top 10 for high pace, the pace is not just averages but it's way above average. If one is on top of the list and 1 in the below then the pace is non predictable. Now, bookmakers know this and jack up the totals to 230s to 240s for the 2 high paced teams because as we know it, teams can't come up and play as fast as 1st half for the 2nd half so game does slow down the 2nd half 9 out of 10 times so You bet the Over for the 1st Half because the pace is still higher and you have a better chance of getting the over 1st H instead of Full game. Same thing with Under, I would bet the 1st half Under instead of full game because of garbage time and OT situations, 2 slow teams bet the 1st half Under. You can also compare which teams have higher scoring 2nd half than 1st half. If you have both teams score lower 2nd half then 1st half then its' also safe to bet the FG under but if you have 1 scoring higher and 1 scoring lower then it's not a good indication which way it will go for FG A(S2+o:S2-P3-P4-o:P3-o:P4)@team and season=2018 will show you which teams score higher 1st half compared to 2nd half.hope that gave you a few ideas to work with. cheers
Do you try to verify some of these assumptions / strategies via data? Some of the aspects you mentioned seem to have already been reflected in the line so it is not obvious that there would be an advantage. For example, for the 1H vs. FG Over on high-scoring games, sometimes the 1H line would be set higher than half of the FG line, which I assume already takes into account the slowdown of games in the second half.
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Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:
Aussie, I don't have a formula per say but I look at a few things and if they all line up I bet the O/U. First teams trend sin the last 5 overall and last 5 playing on the particular site. If team has 4 out of 5 Under or Over Overall or 4 out of 5 at home and playing at home that check marks 1 of the qualifications. I add the ou margin for both teams for the L4 and divide it by 2.(tA(ou margin,N=4)+otA(ou margin,N=4))/2 and A and team and o:team and date=today If I have a positive number then it's leaning towards the over, if it's negative it's leaning towards the under. Now I have queries that do this for me so i don't have to run them and add them up manually. now, that checks the 2nd qualification. Then I look at the pace for each team. This is the best indicator. If both teams fall in the bottom 10 for pace then the pace is exponentially slower, same thing if both fall in the top 10 for high pace, the pace is not just averages but it's way above average. If one is on top of the list and 1 in the below then the pace is non predictable. Now, bookmakers know this and jack up the totals to 230s to 240s for the 2 high paced teams because as we know it, teams can't come up and play as fast as 1st half for the 2nd half so game does slow down the 2nd half 9 out of 10 times so You bet the Over for the 1st Half because the pace is still higher and you have a better chance of getting the over 1st H instead of Full game. Same thing with Under, I would bet the 1st half Under instead of full game because of garbage time and OT situations, 2 slow teams bet the 1st half Under. You can also compare which teams have higher scoring 2nd half than 1st half. If you have both teams score lower 2nd half then 1st half then its' also safe to bet the FG under but if you have 1 scoring higher and 1 scoring lower then it's not a good indication which way it will go for FG A(S2+o:S2-P3-P4-o:P3-o:P4)@team and season=2018 will show you which teams score higher 1st half compared to 2nd half.hope that gave you a few ideas to work with. cheers
Do you try to verify some of these assumptions / strategies via data? Some of the aspects you mentioned seem to have already been reflected in the line so it is not obvious that there would be an advantage. For example, for the 1H vs. FG Over on high-scoring games, sometimes the 1H line would be set higher than half of the FG line, which I assume already takes into account the slowdown of games in the second half.
yes, I have and run SDQL on all of these and it's easy to verify. let me give you an example. for a game to go over 240, you have to have 4 perfect quarters of high scoring. Do you rather risk 4 quarters of high scoring or 2 quarters of high scoring (for the 1H)? all it takes is 1 bad quarter for your bet to go south. Heat is a perfect example. One of the higher paced teams. They will come out blasting 1st Half and come 4th quarter they go on the defensive and they have been one of the best teams to bet under 2nd Half. Their 1st Halfs will go over and 2nd half will go way under because that's how they play. they are many teams such like these. You have to understand this is based on averages so you are making assumptions based on Averges and #s when you are placing a bet on O/U. A team can't come out and play at the same pace for the whole game, nor can they shoot 60% all the time. It does happen often where the 1H goes under and 2nd half way over but most of the time that hapens when the 1H shooting was 30% and all of sudden adjustments are made and team starts shooting 60% 2H. this is what I do and works for me. to each his own. I rather take my chances on 2 fast teams to keep up the pace for 2 fresh quarters at fast speed then hold my breath for them to keep it up for the whole game
[Quote: Originally Posted by joel00
Do you try to verify some of these assumptions / strategies via data? Some of the aspects you mentioned seem to have already been reflected in the line so it is not obvious that there would be an advantage. For example, for the 1H vs. FG Over on high-scoring games, sometimes the 1H line would be set higher than half of the FG line, which I assume already takes into account the slowdown of games in the second half.
[/Quote]
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yes, I have and run SDQL on all of these and it's easy to verify. let me give you an example. for a game to go over 240, you have to have 4 perfect quarters of high scoring. Do you rather risk 4 quarters of high scoring or 2 quarters of high scoring (for the 1H)? all it takes is 1 bad quarter for your bet to go south. Heat is a perfect example. One of the higher paced teams. They will come out blasting 1st Half and come 4th quarter they go on the defensive and they have been one of the best teams to bet under 2nd Half. Their 1st Halfs will go over and 2nd half will go way under because that's how they play. they are many teams such like these. You have to understand this is based on averages so you are making assumptions based on Averges and #s when you are placing a bet on O/U. A team can't come out and play at the same pace for the whole game, nor can they shoot 60% all the time. It does happen often where the 1H goes under and 2nd half way over but most of the time that hapens when the 1H shooting was 30% and all of sudden adjustments are made and team starts shooting 60% 2H. this is what I do and works for me. to each his own. I rather take my chances on 2 fast teams to keep up the pace for 2 fresh quarters at fast speed then hold my breath for them to keep it up for the whole game
[Quote: Originally Posted by joel00
Do you try to verify some of these assumptions / strategies via data? Some of the aspects you mentioned seem to have already been reflected in the line so it is not obvious that there would be an advantage. For example, for the 1H vs. FG Over on high-scoring games, sometimes the 1H line would be set higher than half of the FG line, which I assume already takes into account the slowdown of games in the second half.
damn thing didn't post.. do you know what it takes for a game to go over 240? you need 4 perfect quarters of high scoring. 1 bad quarter and your bet on the over is done with. I rather take my chances on 2 fresh quraters of high scoring then sit and pray for the teams to keep up the pace for 4 quarters. Heat are perfect example. one of the fastest paced teams out there. 1st Half for them goes over quite often but FG they always lock down the defense and 4th quarters kill the over. There are other teams out there like them. Only 7 teams out of all the NBA teams on averages scoring higher on 2nd half than 1st half. As a matter of fact Ihave been cashing on Unders 2nd half looking at these stats. Teams just can't keep the same pace for the whole game. Understand Pace is based on the teams pace for the whole game. that means they can play very fast 1H and slow down 2nd half and still be considered fast paced team. Doesn't mean they play the same pace for the whole game. You just have to look at their tendencies. All of this is checkable through SDQL. ask and I'll show you the Data, Aussie will tell you I know what i'm talking about. Now there are times where 2nd half is higher scoring but mostly that's due to 1)30% shooting vs 60% shooting adjustment in 2nd half, 2)big favorite that plays high pace is down by large margin and they turn it up.. and a few other reasons. this works for me and to each his own but these are just some things to consider
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damn thing didn't post.. do you know what it takes for a game to go over 240? you need 4 perfect quarters of high scoring. 1 bad quarter and your bet on the over is done with. I rather take my chances on 2 fresh quraters of high scoring then sit and pray for the teams to keep up the pace for 4 quarters. Heat are perfect example. one of the fastest paced teams out there. 1st Half for them goes over quite often but FG they always lock down the defense and 4th quarters kill the over. There are other teams out there like them. Only 7 teams out of all the NBA teams on averages scoring higher on 2nd half than 1st half. As a matter of fact Ihave been cashing on Unders 2nd half looking at these stats. Teams just can't keep the same pace for the whole game. Understand Pace is based on the teams pace for the whole game. that means they can play very fast 1H and slow down 2nd half and still be considered fast paced team. Doesn't mean they play the same pace for the whole game. You just have to look at their tendencies. All of this is checkable through SDQL. ask and I'll show you the Data, Aussie will tell you I know what i'm talking about. Now there are times where 2nd half is higher scoring but mostly that's due to 1)30% shooting vs 60% shooting adjustment in 2nd half, 2)big favorite that plays high pace is down by large margin and they turn it up.. and a few other reasons. this works for me and to each his own but these are just some things to consider
I use an 7/14/21 Over/Under system not doing that well this year for 1st hf and ful gm as you came see by my ats record. But in the past everyone knows who follow me when season end we will end up with winning season. 11 straight years on year and has always had a winning season. My rule for betting and Under is you are always winning until the game goes over. I use my system no matter what. I don't worry about stats, who's playing or who's out in a game, B/B games or any things a capper uses to cap games. In which there are some very good cappers on here. I'm a not capper I'm a number player if my system says play Over I play Over and if says Under I play Under. Two games today my system has 7- 0 to go Over 104 in Bos gm and 5-1 Under 1st hf in the Mia gm and 6-0 Under for ful gm.
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I use an 7/14/21 Over/Under system not doing that well this year for 1st hf and ful gm as you came see by my ats record. But in the past everyone knows who follow me when season end we will end up with winning season. 11 straight years on year and has always had a winning season. My rule for betting and Under is you are always winning until the game goes over. I use my system no matter what. I don't worry about stats, who's playing or who's out in a game, B/B games or any things a capper uses to cap games. In which there are some very good cappers on here. I'm a not capper I'm a number player if my system says play Over I play Over and if says Under I play Under. Two games today my system has 7- 0 to go Over 104 in Bos gm and 5-1 Under 1st hf in the Mia gm and 6-0 Under for ful gm.
damn thing didn't post.. do you know what it takes for a game to go over 240? you need 4 perfect quarters of high scoring. 1 bad quarter and your bet on the over is done with. I rather take my chances on 2 fresh quraters of high scoring then sit and pray for the teams to keep up the pace for 4 quarters. Heat are perfect example. one of the fastest paced teams out there. 1st Half for them goes over quite often but FG they always lock down the defense and 4th quarters kill the over. There are other teams out there like them. Only 7 teams out of all the NBA teams on averages scoring higher on 2nd half than 1st half. As a matter of fact Ihave been cashing on Unders 2nd half looking at these stats. Teams just can't keep the same pace for the whole game. Understand Pace is based on the teams pace for the whole game. that means they can play very fast 1H and slow down 2nd half and still be considered fast paced team. Doesn't mean they play the same pace for the whole game. You just have to look at their tendencies. All of this is checkable through SDQL. ask and I'll show you the Data, Aussie will tell you I know what i'm talking about. Now there are times where 2nd half is higher scoring but mostly that's due to 1)30% shooting vs 60% shooting adjustment in 2nd half, 2)big favorite that plays high pace is down by large margin and they turn it up.. and a few other reasons. this works for me and to each his own but these are just some things to consider
Thanks a lot for your insight. SDQL does not have historical 1H lines so it is not easy to verify whether a half-time bet really has an advantage over a full-game bet (I would also prefer 1H bets even if the two options turn out to have similar winning percentages). For example, for today's Pelicans vs. Heat game, the 1H O/U is 116.5 while the FG line is 228.5. The oddsmaker definitely has already taken into account the 2H slowdown of games to a certain extent. So if the 1H total goes way over there is a good chance that the FG over is also a winner too. (By the way, in case you don't know, the advanced stat numbers by halves / quarter, including the pace number, can be found on stats.nba.com using filters)
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Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:
damn thing didn't post.. do you know what it takes for a game to go over 240? you need 4 perfect quarters of high scoring. 1 bad quarter and your bet on the over is done with. I rather take my chances on 2 fresh quraters of high scoring then sit and pray for the teams to keep up the pace for 4 quarters. Heat are perfect example. one of the fastest paced teams out there. 1st Half for them goes over quite often but FG they always lock down the defense and 4th quarters kill the over. There are other teams out there like them. Only 7 teams out of all the NBA teams on averages scoring higher on 2nd half than 1st half. As a matter of fact Ihave been cashing on Unders 2nd half looking at these stats. Teams just can't keep the same pace for the whole game. Understand Pace is based on the teams pace for the whole game. that means they can play very fast 1H and slow down 2nd half and still be considered fast paced team. Doesn't mean they play the same pace for the whole game. You just have to look at their tendencies. All of this is checkable through SDQL. ask and I'll show you the Data, Aussie will tell you I know what i'm talking about. Now there are times where 2nd half is higher scoring but mostly that's due to 1)30% shooting vs 60% shooting adjustment in 2nd half, 2)big favorite that plays high pace is down by large margin and they turn it up.. and a few other reasons. this works for me and to each his own but these are just some things to consider
Thanks a lot for your insight. SDQL does not have historical 1H lines so it is not easy to verify whether a half-time bet really has an advantage over a full-game bet (I would also prefer 1H bets even if the two options turn out to have similar winning percentages). For example, for today's Pelicans vs. Heat game, the 1H O/U is 116.5 while the FG line is 228.5. The oddsmaker definitely has already taken into account the 2H slowdown of games to a certain extent. So if the 1H total goes way over there is a good chance that the FG over is also a winner too. (By the way, in case you don't know, the advanced stat numbers by halves / quarter, including the pace number, can be found on stats.nba.com using filters)
When two OVER teams meet, the game goes over about 85% of the time. For two UNDER teams, it's close to 89%. However, I don't count OTs. So two teams tied at the end of regulation and its UNDER let's say, I count the game as UNDER for my stats. I also watch 1H vesus 2H as pointed out. It's not perfect, but it does help for capping. For today, I like the UNDER for CLE-BOS and the OVER for NO-MIA. I'm not committed yet, still looking at the games. Just some ideas for you to ponder.
You must be a billionaire
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Quote Originally Posted by NevadaBet:
When two OVER teams meet, the game goes over about 85% of the time. For two UNDER teams, it's close to 89%. However, I don't count OTs. So two teams tied at the end of regulation and its UNDER let's say, I count the game as UNDER for my stats. I also watch 1H vesus 2H as pointed out. It's not perfect, but it does help for capping. For today, I like the UNDER for CLE-BOS and the OVER for NO-MIA. I'm not committed yet, still looking at the games. Just some ideas for you to ponder.
the Heats game is a no play for me because the pace indicates an over play yet both teams have had a lot of under lately in the L5 games. I have 5 plays that match my criteria
Pistons Over 1H
Wizards Over 1H
Rockets Over 1H
Thunder Under 1H
Nuggets Under 1H
Lean Magic Under 1H
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the Heats game is a no play for me because the pace indicates an over play yet both teams have had a lot of under lately in the L5 games. I have 5 plays that match my criteria
When two OVER teams meet, the game goes over about 85% of the time. For two UNDER teams, it's close to 89%. However, I don't count OTs. So two teams tied at the end of regulation and its UNDER let's say, I count the game as UNDER for my stats. I also watch 1H vesus 2H as pointed out. It's not perfect, but it does help for capping. For today, I like the UNDER for CLE-BOS and the OVER for NO-MIA. I'm not committed yet, still looking at the games. Just some ideas for you to ponder.
You must be a billionaire
85 and 89%....my guess hes a trillionaire
MAGAm Yisrael Chai
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Quote Originally Posted by HotRod11:
Quote Originally Posted by NevadaBet:
When two OVER teams meet, the game goes over about 85% of the time. For two UNDER teams, it's close to 89%. However, I don't count OTs. So two teams tied at the end of regulation and its UNDER let's say, I count the game as UNDER for my stats. I also watch 1H vesus 2H as pointed out. It's not perfect, but it does help for capping. For today, I like the UNDER for CLE-BOS and the OVER for NO-MIA. I'm not committed yet, still looking at the games. Just some ideas for you to ponder.
Not really. It doesn't count OT points -- 19 OT games this year so far. Pure stats can't take injuries into consideration. B2B games with tired teams, etc. Yeah the percentages sound high, much more to the game than just pure numbers. I do pretty well with totals, but there is no sure thing. What's really interesting is tracking the TOTALs for teasers. The percentages get even higher, but then you have to be able to pick better than 74% of the time. Used to like teasers, but straight bets are really the only way to go.
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Not really. It doesn't count OT points -- 19 OT games this year so far. Pure stats can't take injuries into consideration. B2B games with tired teams, etc. Yeah the percentages sound high, much more to the game than just pure numbers. I do pretty well with totals, but there is no sure thing. What's really interesting is tracking the TOTALs for teasers. The percentages get even higher, but then you have to be able to pick better than 74% of the time. Used to like teasers, but straight bets are really the only way to go.
Not really. It doesn't count OT points -- 19 OT games this year so far. Pure stats can't take injuries into consideration. B2B games with tired teams, etc. Yeah the percentages sound high, much more to the game than just pure numbers. I do pretty well with totals, but there is no sure thing. What's really interesting is tracking the TOTALs for teasers. The percentages get even higher, but then you have to be able to pick better than 74% of the time. Used to like teasers, but straight bets are really the only way to go.
They're making fun of you. Because you're full of sh*t. I feel someone needed to point that out for you.
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Quote Originally Posted by NevadaBet:
Not really. It doesn't count OT points -- 19 OT games this year so far. Pure stats can't take injuries into consideration. B2B games with tired teams, etc. Yeah the percentages sound high, much more to the game than just pure numbers. I do pretty well with totals, but there is no sure thing. What's really interesting is tracking the TOTALs for teasers. The percentages get even higher, but then you have to be able to pick better than 74% of the time. Used to like teasers, but straight bets are really the only way to go.
They're making fun of you. Because you're full of sh*t. I feel someone needed to point that out for you.
the Heats game is a no play for me because the pace indicates an over play yet both teams have had a lot of under lately in the L5 games. I have 5 plays that match my criteria
Pistons Over 1H
Wizards Over 1H
Rockets Over 1H
Thunder Under 1H
Nuggets Under 1H
Lean Magic Under 1H
My good friend good to see you on covers.With you on Den and Mia Under. On the side of the Det,Okc and Hou gm. Good luck to us both. AssuieDownUnder hope you don't mine me coming in your thread my good friend
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Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:
the Heats game is a no play for me because the pace indicates an over play yet both teams have had a lot of under lately in the L5 games. I have 5 plays that match my criteria
Pistons Over 1H
Wizards Over 1H
Rockets Over 1H
Thunder Under 1H
Nuggets Under 1H
Lean Magic Under 1H
My good friend good to see you on covers.With you on Den and Mia Under. On the side of the Det,Okc and Hou gm. Good luck to us both. AssuieDownUnder hope you don't mine me coming in your thread my good friend
Aussie, I don't have a formula per say but I look at a few things and if they all line up I bet the O/U. First teams trend sin the last 5 overall and last 5 playing on the particular site. If team has 4 out of 5 Under or Over Overall or 4 out of 5 at home and playing at home that check marks 1 of the qualifications. I add the ou margin for both teams for the L4 and divide it by 2.(tA(ou margin,N=4)+otA(ou margin,N=4))/2 and A and team and o:team and date=today If I have a positive number then it's leaning towards the over, if it's negative it's leaning towards the under. Now I have queries that do this for me so i don't have to run them and add them up manually.
I doubt that a streak is a good indicator as you may think. If you simply check on SDQL about the situation where both teams have more than 3 over
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Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:
Aussie, I don't have a formula per say but I look at a few things and if they all line up I bet the O/U. First teams trend sin the last 5 overall and last 5 playing on the particular site. If team has 4 out of 5 Under or Over Overall or 4 out of 5 at home and playing at home that check marks 1 of the qualifications. I add the ou margin for both teams for the L4 and divide it by 2.(tA(ou margin,N=4)+otA(ou margin,N=4))/2 and A and team and o:team and date=today If I have a positive number then it's leaning towards the over, if it's negative it's leaning towards the under. Now I have queries that do this for me so i don't have to run them and add them up manually.
I doubt that a streak is a good indicator as you may think. If you simply check on SDQL about the situation where both teams have more than 3 over
Oz I think we need to observe at least one or two years and after that I think we can find some good trends (queries) that will work in long term. More than 50% of my working systems till last season are broken now. When the game change dramatically as it's right now It's hard to figure out new systems. At least some of my old situational plays seems to work but they have nothing in common with that insane 3pt shooting. I will be extremely lucky if somehow hit 53-4 % this season (I'm under .500 right now) based on my systems. I hope I will figure out which ones still work in the new era. 
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