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NBA WED 031109 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #76
Quote Originally Posted by Turc:



yup, will do. i take pride in capping my own games but it is always interesting to take a look other systems or routines, plus i might start following little more closely.

Caveat bro...ain't my system...was given to me to kill time before the NBA...but, it's a money maker
 
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Posted: #77
I hear ya Ax. I can't wait to cap the other games tomorrow. I just gotta make sure I stay disciplined and hungry even when I'm on a good streak like now. In the past that has been my downfall but a thread like this keeps me on point. I haven't locked anything in for tomorrow yet either. NIce seeing you at the window again 
 
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Posted: #78
Im thinking public perception of the Jazz right now, their offense,past games on the road combined team totals will provide value in this line. The last team these two teams played in Utah, the Jazz won 108-89. 197 total. both teams actually shot 50 % that night. My gut right now is telling me both these teams will not shoot 50 % or better tomorrow night. Maybe one, but both?? The pace will be much slower then in Utah as well. The total was 205 for that game, I believe they will set it around 196 or 197 not good at projecting totals. But Under 197 or better would be solid imo at first glance.
 
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Posted: #79
Im hoping for a 200 or 199 total tbh, no idea what kinda number they are gonna throw out at us.
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:

I hear ya Ax. I can't wait to cap the other games tomorrow. I just gotta make sure I stay disciplined and hungry even when I'm on a good streak like now. In the past that has been my downfall but a thread like this keeps me on point. I haven't locked anything in for tomorrow yet either. NIce seeing you at the window again 

Man, we gotta stop meeting like this.  

Yeah brother, I'm doing one play a day and it's tough.  Deep down, I have a little action junkie in me but I keep it in check by doing this.  People think I'm giving out free picks...LOL, man, I'm just doing therapy 
 
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Posted: #81
I really do not think they will put up a 205 total again right ? In Atl?
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by doodokno:

Im thinking public perception of the Jazz right now, their offense,past games on the road combined team totals will provide value in this line. The last team these two teams played in Utah, the Jazz won 108-89. 197 total. both teams actually shot 50 % that night. My gut right now is telling me both these teams will not shoot 50 % or better tomorrow night. Maybe one, but both?? The pace will be much slower then in Utah as well. The total was 205 for that game, I believe they will set it around 196 or 197 not good at projecting totals. But Under 197 or better would be solid imo at first glance.

You're seriously scaring me...nice call, I'm hitting this @198 minimum value...I'd have to think seriously hard at buying below that number...
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by doodokno:

I really do not think they will put up a 205 total again right ? In Atl?

Oh I pray to everything and anything...throw us this bone!!!
 
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Posted: #84
i see them giving us 194-196 for jazz/hawks
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


Oh I pray to everything and anything...throw us this bone!!!

I misread your message...what I meant was give us a 205 number...I think you were talking about the 205 they put up....
 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:

i see them giving us 194-196 for jazz/hawks

damn it...damn JCW...why the buzz kill??  LOL 
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


I misread your message...what I meant was give us a 205 number...I think you were talking about the 205 they put up....


Yeah, I am only wishful thinking for a 198 number. a 205 would be too good to be true. lol
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


damn it...damn JCW...why the buzz kill??  LOL 

it would be nice to be wrong 
 
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Posted: #89
 NBA stuffer dot com has some good efficiency numbers based on rest days and b2b games. Here is Det and NY numbers.
                                                                                                                           
Detroit0.516107.410886.4
                W/L               OFF                                        DEF          
Pace is the last one

New York0.403109.2111.496.6

Maybe this is not a good indicator but they have efficiency for daily matchups that are helpful
                                                                                                                                             
 
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Posted: #90
   Do you guys believe in rest day performance, I believe it is a major factor in capping outcomes and totals.

 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by drifter44:

   Do you guys believe in rest day performance, I believe it is a major factor in capping outcomes and totals.



I definitely like to look at how teams fair when playing with little/lots of rest. Some teams are consistently better or worse by 3-5 points. Problem is, when these teams meet and make a perfect storm (both teams are in a situation where they both play slower/faster), the book usually adjusts the number (removes some value), and then we have to wait for the public to drive it the other way.
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


seriously KB...they televise clippers games???

They sure do.. I live right outside of LA and it's always on Fox Sports Network West

Thanks for the pick yesterday, Ax. Made watching the Clippers game a lot more enjoyable
 
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Posted: #93
Two points for me. 
 
 
None of these intial plays are slams, but half the lines are due out in an hour.
 
NBA League pass  (MLB too)  if you have to watch what you bet...rest of the season every game  $99 on cable
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


ROFLMAO...freaking classic!!!  

I do very well in MBL but you need to hit up the Jedi Master CHUMP.  We can all learn something from him.  I'm going to track the crap out of his plays this sason and reverse engineer it...I'm going to figure this out!

Ax - what do you and/or Chump bet in baseball? Totals only... or sides as well?
 
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Posted: #95
bro ax, accept me pare add na kita,

thanks,

by the im confused, ano ba yung POD mo?

thanks
 
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Posted: #96
Right on the money, yet again!!!
Thank you, Ax.



 
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Posted: #97
just came out....Utah under 195.5 
nawlin was 194 it is now  192.5
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by drifter44:

 NBA stuffer dot com has some good efficiency numbers based on rest days and b2b games. Here is Det and NY numbers.
                                                                                                                           
Detroit0.516107.410886.4
                W/L               OFF                                        DEF          
Pace is the last one

New York0.403109.2111.496.6

Maybe this is not a good indicator but they have efficiency for daily matchups that are helpful
                                                                                                                                             

Nice, I wasn't aware of this tool.  I checked it out and this could make someone dangerous.    Who knew?  

It looks at bit intimidating at first (web site) but I'm sure it's easy enough to figure out.  Just what I needed, another couple of hours of work right?

Thank you for this Drifter, I"m sure this will come in handy. 
 
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Posted: #99
Quote Originally Posted by drifter44:

   Do you guys believe in rest day performance, I believe it is a major factor in capping outcomes and totals.


Absolutely, you ever see people at work on a Friday?  Two things off the bat there, Thursday night hangover and looking forward to the weekend.  LOL..hope that analogy makes sense...

hmmm, I don't recall but I may have considered that rest factor heavily on the LAC/CLE game last night...hmmm, but yes, at least I do...
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by highside107:


They sure do.. I live right outside of LA and it's always on Fox Sports Network West

Thanks for the pick yesterday, Ax. Made watching the Clippers game a lot more enjoyable

Oh man, no problem...and...no offense if you're a Clipps fan, I get spoiled living in Boston...
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