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NBA WED 031109 early thoughts - value hunting

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Posted: #151
196 number for utah, was just about right on. wow
 
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Posted: #152

Hey Ax,

You probably already saw this in your analysis of the NY/Det, but caveat emptor my friend:

(1) NYK has scored over 100 pts in its last 24 games.

(2) NYK has allowed 100 or more points in 9 straight games.

For what its worth.   BOL pal.

 
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Posted: #153
After a bunch of back and forth and a lot...LOT of number crunching...How you guys feeling about the upwards movement of the NOH/WAS game...reminds me of the move LAC/CLE was making yesterday...what's the facination with the over????

thoughts???
 
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Posted: #154
  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
  • Under is 15-7-2 in Hornets last 24 vs. Eastern Conference.
  • Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Wizards last 6 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 12-3 in Wizards last 15 vs. NBA Southwest.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

NOT SURE....
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by JBrilman:

  • Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-1 in Hornets last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
  • Under is 15-7-2 in Hornets last 24 vs. Eastern Conference.
  • Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Wizards last 6 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
  • Under is 12-3 in Wizards last 15 vs. NBA Southwest.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.

NOT SURE....

LOL, you saying it's a square play JBril???
 
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Posted: #156
NOH scored 79 points last game - they will be looking to score - question is, will they hold the wiz?
 
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Posted: #157
O/U 1-3 game after NOH scores less than 80 this season
 
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Posted: #158
I am sold - UNDER!!!! :)
 
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Posted: #159
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:

After a bunch of back and forth and a lot...LOT of number crunching...How you guys feeling about the upwards movement of the NOH/WAS game...reminds me of the move LAC/CLE was making yesterday...what's the facination with the over????

thoughts???

Ax - I don't see the "upward" movement in the NOH/WAS game you are referring to. Opened at 194 and now 192.5

Line history at Pinnacle:

03/10 04:15PM: 194 -105 / 194 -105
03/10 08:45PM: 194 -101 / 194 -109
03/11 03:19AM: 193½ -105 / 193½ -105
03/11 07:12AM: 193½ +102 / 193½ -112
03/11 07:13AM: 193½ +106 / 193½ -116
03/11 07:44AM: 192½ -104 / 192½ -106
03/11 10:03AM: 192½ -107 / 192½ -103
03/11 10:05AM: 192½ -109 / 192½ -101
03/11 02:19PM: 192½ -111 / 192½ +101
03/11 02:20PM: 192½ -114 / 192½ +104
03/11 02:29PM: 192½ -115 / 192½ +105
03/11 03:23PM: 192½ -113 / 192½ +103

 
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Posted: #160
Wizards playing a team coming off <80 the previous game

O/U 0-1


these alone are small numbers but look at JBrill's post and man I've crunched a crapload of numbers and seeing this as good value @193

thoughts please???  tell me it's a square play but back it back...I have thick skin...i mean don't be insulting or anything...LOL
 
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Posted: #161
NO can play D when they want to. Last 5 they are giving up 90.6 a game and coming off a loss to ATL they will D up early and run a little to try to blow it open.

I see the public betting over on the fact that they think NO will run all game and Was plays no D. NO are averaging 97 on offense over the last 5 so not as efficeint as years past.

I see this game being NO 97-100 to WAS 85-89
 
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Posted: #162
I've narrowed it down to two games for myself Jazz/Hawks @ 196.5 or Hornets/Wizards @193. I have locked in small on the Hawks -1.5 so far.
 
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Posted: #163
Quote Originally Posted by highside107:


Ax - I don't see the "upward" movement in the NOH/WAS game you are referring to. Opened at 194 and now 192.5

Line history at Pinnacle:

03/10 04:15PM: 194 -105 / 194 -105
03/10 08:45PM: 194 -101 / 194 -109
03/11 03:19AM: 193½ -105 / 193½ -105
03/11 07:12AM: 193½ +102 / 193½ -112
03/11 07:13AM: 193½ +106 / 193½ -116
03/11 07:44AM: 192½ -104 / 192½ -106
03/11 10:03AM: 192½ -107 / 192½ -103
03/11 10:05AM: 192½ -109 / 192½ -101
03/11 02:19PM: 192½ -111 / 192½ +101
03/11 02:20PM: 192½ -114 / 192½ +104
03/11 02:29PM: 192½ -115 / 192½ +105
03/11 03:23PM: 192½ -113 / 192½ +103


damn, this ain't what I'm seeing...I looked at cover's Pinnacle...can you confirm pal??? I'm seeing at lot of books already @193...
 
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Posted: #164
betting is pretty even....Sharps are sending the number down...

Consensus on Over/Under

Total
226 192.5 259
48 193.5 39
192 194 190
466
488

 
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Posted: #165
Quote Originally Posted by JBrilman:

NO can play D when they want to. Last 5 they are giving up 90.6 a game and coming off a loss to ATL they will D up early and run a little to try to blow it open.

I see the public betting over on the fact that they think NO will run all game and Was plays no D. NO are averaging 97 on offense over the last 5 so not as efficeint as years past.

I see this game being NO 97-100 to WAS 85-89

looks like the under to me 
 
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Posted: #166
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:

I've narrowed it down to two games for myself Jazz/Hawks @ 196.5 or Hornets/Wizards @193. I have locked in small on the Hawks -1.5 so far.

what's holding you back from locking the NOH game JCW?
 
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Posted: #167
Quote Originally Posted by JBrilman:

betting is pretty even....Sharps are sending the number down...

Consensus on Over/Under

Total
226 192.5 259
48 193.5 39
192 194 190
466
488



hmmm, that's good right??? LOL God I hate being on the public...I hate being with the sharps and the money...I just want to be me.... ...i love that emote...
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


damn, this ain't what I'm seeing...I looked at cover's Pinnacle...can you confirm pal??? I'm seeing at lot of books already @193...

Ax - you are correct. A lot of books at 193. Pinny choosing to keep it at 192.5 at "plus juice," but it's prob going to move to 193 soon.

As far as betting percentages, Wagerline is showing:

Total Over Under
7:00 PM New Orleans 192.5 Washington 467 48.70% 492 51.30%


I've found Wagerline to be a decent indicator of public plays and percentages.
 
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Posted: #169
Matchbook's got U 193 +100 and U 193.5 -108.  The number was 192.5 earlier, I think if we hold out 194 might come into play at least.
 
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Posted: #170
Quote Originally Posted by highside107:


Ax - you are correct. A lot of books at 193. Pinny choosing to keep it at 192.5 at "plus juice," but it's prob going to move to 193 soon.

As far as betting percentages, Wagerline is showing:

Total Over Under
7:00 PM New Orleans 192.5 Washington 467 48.70% 492 51.30%


I've found Wagerline to be a decent indicator of public plays and percentages.

thanks highside...looks fairly even to me...anyone else with arguments for or against this play?
 
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Posted: #171
Quote Originally Posted by corndogking:

Matchbook's got U 193 +100 and U 193.5 -108.  The number was 192.5 earlier, I think if we hold out 194 might come into play at least.

I think that's a smart plan but got to watch this movement closely...194 is optimal value but it may be wishful thinking so if 193.5 or even 193 is available...you may not want to miss the boat...IMHO
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by axpiota59:


what's holding you back from locking the NOH game JCW?

I don't like the last 10 wizards home games. The Hornets have gone over this number recently against similar teams like the nets and thunder. 
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by JCWhy83:


I don't like the last 10 wizards home games. The Hornets have gone over this number recently against similar teams like the nets and thunder. 

Valid point...last 10 WAS@home

SU:4-6 (-6.7)
ATS:4-6-0 (-4.5)avg line: 2.1
O/U:7-3-0 (6.1)avg total: 198.8

I do want to note that with a 4-6 SU record...more likely than not, the visiting team dictated...very compelling numbers against the under play though...
 
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Posted: #174
Nets play close games FLAT OUT!!

and Thunder play NO DEFENSE only try to outscore teams and without Durant or Green against NO that game is tough to look at with any indicators.

If that's all the objections for that play I think it is the

ding ding ding


POD

 
 
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Posted: #175
here @ stations it's down to 193
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